16. Austin Dilon
Let’s face it – Austin Dillon is only in the playoffs because he and his No. 3 Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet team have figured out a way to be the absolute best team at Richmond, which is weird as hell, considering the team is pretty much junk everywhere. I’ve never seen a driver/team combination have one track where you could consider them a favorite and nothing else.

15. Josh Berry
Josh Berry won a race early on in the season at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, a place he’d won twice at in the Xfinity Series. Following that win, Berry has pretty much been a non-factor for the remainder of the season. He’s only had one other top-5 and four other top-10s this season. Maybe Las Vegas is to Berry what Richmond is to Dillon?

14. Alex Bowman
Alex Bowman was the last driver into the postseason on points and one of only two drivers to make the playoffs, along with Tyler Reddick, without winning a race to qualify. Bowman has six top-5s and 14 top-10s this season with a 16.4 average finish. If one of the first four drivers I’m predicting to be eliminated were to make the second round, I’d say he’s probably the most likely.

13. Shane Van Gisbergen
There are only two ways I see Shane Van Gisbergen, who is actually tied for the series lead with four wins, making it out of the first round of the NASCAR playoffs. 1) Other drivers have misfortune that knocks them out, which is something that seemingly happens annually, and 2) He’s able to finish just well enough to rely on his playoff points, which currently have him 16 points to the good to get him through. If Van Gisbergen can somehow make it through the first round, I think he’ll make it through the second round, as the Charlotte Motor Speedway Roval is among the tracks in that segment of the playoffs, and NOBODY is nearly as good at road racing in NASCAR as Van Gisbergen.
 
12. Tyler Reddick
Tyler Reddick just hasn’t been the same Tyler Reddick this season. He’s the most shocking non-winner of the year to me. I don’t know if the off-track stuff between 23XI Racing and NASCAR has been a factor or if the No. 45 team just hasn’t been able to get it done. However, I think he’ll at least be able to figure his way out of the first round of the playoffs.
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11. Ross Chastain
Ross Chastain won one of the biggest races of the season at the Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte Motor Speedway to clinch his spot in the playoffs, but other than that race, he hasn’t seemed very “winning” this season. He has only two other top-5 finishes other than his win. You have to run upfront more than Chastain has this season to be a playoff threat.

10. Bubba Wallace
Bubba Wallace had the shining moment of his career thus far with his Crown Jewel win at Indianapolis Motor Speedway in the Brickyard 400. Without that win, he may have found himself on the outside looking in for the second straight year. Wallace seems to be in the right mind frame to compete in the postseason, but his No. 23 23XI Racing Toyota team has had a lot of bad luck this season, including seven DNFs. 

9. Austin Cindric
Austin Cindric is having the best season of his career thus far. His 313 laps led are already more than any other season in his career. But his win at Talladega Superspeedway to clinch his playoff spot is only one of two top-5s this season, and he only has five total top-10s. He’s not running up front enough for me to place him in the top eight, though Penske Racing does seem to turn up its game come playoff time.

8. Chase Briscoe
Chase Briscoe has clearly been the third-best Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota this season in his first year in the No. 19, but his numbers are quite a bit better overall than the drivers I don’t have making the top eight. He has 10 top-5s this season, to go along with a series high six poles. His one win came at Pocono, but his win last season came at Darlington Raceway, which kicks off the playoffs this year.

7. Chase Elliott
Chase Elliott is quite the wonder in how he went from undoubtedly the best Hendrick Motorsports driver to the third best in a short period of time, and he’s not even out of his 20s yet. He enters the playoffs ranked seventh in the point standings, which is exactly where he finished in 2024, and it’s where I’m predicting him to finish this year. His one win came at the drafting track at Atlanta. He has seven top-5s and 13 top-10s this season.

6. Joey Logano
Joey Logano has an incredible knack for having mediocre regular seasons, getting into the playoffs by winning somewhere, and then somehow turning up the wick in the postseason, to the point where he’ll even go on and win the whole damn thing. That’s why I can’t put him any lower than No. 6 on this list. Once again, he hasn’t had a spectacular year. He only has three top-5s and seven top-10s, but he won at Texas Motor Speedway and got himself into the show. You simply can’t count him out.

5. Christopher Bell
I feel bad because fifth place in the playoffs is where Christopher Bell finished last year, and it’s where I have him once again this season, just on the outside looking in. Bell had a helluva start to the season, winning three races in a row early on, but those all came in the first month of the season, and he hasn’t seen Victory Lane since. He has nine top-5s and 14 top-10s, but he’s going to have to find his winning ways again to have a title shot.

4. Ryan Blaney
There’s just something about Ryan Blaney, like his Penske Racing teammate Joey Logano, and Penske in general, that seems like they’re made for the most important stretch of the season. Blaney is hot off his second win of the season at Daytona International Speedway last Saturday night and also won at Nashville this summer. His 10 top-5s are among the leaders in the sport.

3. William Byron
William Byron has been the most consistent driver in NASCAR this season, which is the reason he won the bonus as the regular season points leader. His nine top-5s and 13 top-10s are among the best in the Cup Series. He began the season by winning his second consecutive Daytona 500 and went on to win more recently at Iowa Speedway. Byron does seem to have a knack for trailing off as the season goes on, which he’ll need to avoid to make the Championship Four at Phoenix.

2. Kyle Larson
The only thing likely standing in Kyle Larson’s way of winning a second NASCAR championship is himself. He’s arguably the most talented driver in the sport, driving for arguably the best team in the sport, but sometimes he drives over his head/capabilities and puts himself in bad situations. His three wins are second in the sport behind only Denny Hamlin and road ace Shane Van Gisbergen, and he’s among the sport's leaders in top-5s with 11 and top-10s with 16. He’s led nearly 900 laps in the season’s first 26 races. If he can harness some of his bad habits, he’s probably the guy to beat.

1. Denny Hamlin
I honestly don’t know why I keep doing this … I frequently pick Denny Hamlin, the sport’s all-time greatest driver without a championship, to win a NASCAR championship. I guess I must know deep down that he deserves one, so surely it’s bound to happen. But at 44, he’s obviously running out of chances to get it done. He leads all drivers with four oval wins this season, and his 11 top-5s and 13 top-10s are among the series' best, as well. Is this the year he’ll finally hoist that trophy? 

​Winners:

Relief Pitchers
If you were a closer on a bad team, it was your lucky day, as numerous closers on non-playoff teams now find themselves with a chance at playoff glory – some still as closers, and others now as setup men for more dominant closers. The best of the relief arms that were dealt at the deadline was Mason Miller, who went from the Sacramento Athletics to the San Diego Padres for that team’s best prospect (and the No. 3 prospect in baseball overall) in 18-year-old shortstop Leodalis De Vries. Miller’s fastball averages 101.1 mph. The Padres already had one of the best closers in the game in All-Star Robert Suarez, who leads the league with 30 saves, so Miller may wind up in more of a set-up role for San Diego. The Phillies got their closer in Jhoan Duran from the Minnesota Twins, who were seemingly closing up shop at the deadline, dealing most of their best players, filling a significant gap on one of the game’s best teams, which has had a struggling bullpen this season. The Yankees acquired Pittsburgh Pirates closer David Bednar, in hopes he can continue a solid season, and sure up a pen that has seen its closer, Devin Williams, struggle this season after coming over from Milwaukee during the offseason. The New York Mets acquired St. Louis Cardinals closer Ryan Helsley to add to their strong bullpen and help set-up closer Edwin Diaz. Helsley was one of the best closers in baseball in 2024, but has dealt with periods of inconsistency in 2025. The Tigers acquired the Washington Nationals closer Kyle Finnegan in hopes of helping sure up their bullpen. Finnegan, an All-Star in 2024, had 20 saves this season for the Nats.

San Diego Padres
The San Diego Padres proved that they are all-in on trying to win this season with a flurry of deals at the deadline, which included giving up the team’s top prospect in shortstop Leodalis De Vries for hard-throwing bullpen arm Mason Miller. The Padres, currently three games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League West Division, are the No. 3 N.L. Wild Card team, also added All-Star hitter Ryan O’Hearn and extra outfield help Ramon Laureano from the Baltimore Orioles. In addition, they added catching help in Freddy Fermin from the Kansas City Royals. No team gave up more of their potential future to win this season than the Padres, but I love to see a team going all-in.

Seattle Mariners
The biggest bat on the market before the trade deadline was Arizona Diamondbacks third baseman Eugenio Suarez, whose 36 home runs are fifth in the league. The Seattle Mariners have been familiar with Suarez in the past, as he played for the team from 2022-2023, and adding him to a lineup that already features MLB’s leading home run hitter in catcher Cal Raleigh and Julio Rodriguez makes that one a scary lineup. The earlier addition of first baseman Josh Naylor from Arizona had already made the M’s better at first base, too. The Mariners are currently the No. 3 Wild Card team in the American League, only one game ahead of their A.L. West Division rival, the Texas Rangers, and find themselves 4.5 games behind the Houston Astros for the division lead.

Losers:

New York Yankees
The New York Yankees have seen a hot start on the season turn to crap over the last couple of months, going from leading the American League East Division by more than five games to now trailing the Toronto Blue Jays by 3.5 and having the hotter Boston Red Sox on their tail. The Yankees are currently the top A.L. Wild Card team, but their fan base and those within the game are wondering if they’ll be able to hold on. The Yanks made some deals at the deadline, most notably adding David Bednar from the Pittsburgh Pirates and Camilo Doval from the San Francisco Giants to help out the bullpen, but they probably needed rotation help more than anything. They added speed and versatility with the acquisition of utility player Jose Caballero from division rival Tampa Bay Rays, but nothing that scares the competition. All in all, the Yankees added seven players to their big league squad at the deadline (Bednar, Doval, Caballero, Ryan McMahon, Austin Slater, Amed Rosario and Jake Bird), but nothing that seems like it could alter its season, which is something a franchise like the Yankees should be capable of doing.

Chicago Cubs
The Chicago Cubs are in pretty good shape to make the playoffs. They are in a tight fight with the Milwaukee Brewers for the National League Central Division crown but are probably at least a Wild Card lock. They added some nice pieces to help the team out with utility guy Willi Castro and bullpen help in Taylor Rogers and Andrew Kittredge, but what they needed was another rotation option, and I’m sorry, but Michael Soroka shouldn’t have been the best they could do.

Atlanta Braves
Sometimes a team can disappoint at the trade deadline by not throwing up their hands, saying “Uncle” and being aggressive in starting to get better for the future. The Atlanta Braves have been baseball’s most disappointing team this year, due to a rash of injuries and a sheer lack of effort. They have no chance at making the playoffs with two months to go, so it seemed like trading off some of the players whose contracts are coming up could be beneficial, even if those players like closer Raisel Iglesias, one of the game’s best closers last season and potentially its worst this season, had played themselves out of getting much in return. They also could’ve gotten something for designated hitter Marcell Ozuna, another All-Star last season who has disappointed in 2025, instead of letting him hit free agency for nothing in the offseason. I think the Braves should’ve even been aggressive in trying to find a piece in return for catcher Sean Murphy, since rookie Drake Baldwin has shown he can be the catcher of the future for the team. The fact that general manager Alex Anthopoulos decided to stand pat and do nothing may not have any impact on this season, but could hinder next year’s team.