Predicting NASCAR's 16-Driver Playoff Field

by Julian Spivey 

 
Because of the unpredictability of motorsports, especially with how some of the tracks are in NASCAR – I’m looking at you, Daytona, Talladega and Atlanta – predicting the 16-driver playoff field for the Cup Series is no easy task. If you correctly pick 12 out of the 16 drivers at the beginning of the season, you’ve done a pretty good job. Here’s my attempt at predicting the 16 drivers that will make the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs.

*These rankings are in alphabetical order, not by how likely I believe the drivers are to win the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series championship.

Christopher Bell
Christopher Bell is good for at least two-to-three wins every season. He won three last year in his Joe Gibbs Racing No. 20 Toyota. He’s been in the top five in the point standings over the previous three years. He also has one of the best average finish stats in the sport. He should be a lock for the playoffs.

Ryan Blaney
Coming out of the penultimate race at Martinsville last season, I believed Ryan Blaney would become the first back-to-back Cup Series champion in over a decade. It wasn’t to be. But Blaney is one of those you should pencil in for multiple wins every season (though he did go winless in 2022). He won three races in 2024 with 12 top-5 finishes.

Alex Bowman
My prediction of Alex Bowman making the 2025 NASCAR Cup Playoffs is more a mark of faith in Hendrick Motorsports than Bowman himself. If you drive for that team, you’re likely bound to win a race in the first 26 events of the season to qualify for the playoffs. However, Bowman surprised me last year by doing that at the Chicago street race.

Chase Briscoe
Like all of the now-defunct Stewart-Haas Racing team, Chase Briscoe didn’t have a very good 2024 season, but he still found himself in the playoffs by winning the Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway. He’s now with the No. 19 Joe Gibbs Racing team, opened by the retirement of Martin Truex Jr., and finds himself with the best ride he’s had in the Cup Series. Look for a significant improvement for Briscoe in 2025 and potentially his first multi-win season.

Chris Buescher
​I was shocked that Chris Buescher failed to make the NASCAR Playoffs in 2024 after a surprising 2023 campaign that saw him win three times. He won a race in the playoffs at Watkins Glen, which is probably the most surprising of his six career wins. He was the best driver in ’24 to miss out on the playoffs, and I don’t expect to see it happen again. He has a three-season winning streak right now, and I’m sure he’ll find a way to make it four in a row.

Kyle Busch
Kyle Busch’s talent and the way Richard Childress Racing looked in the last third of the 2024 season are the only reasons I’m predicting a return to the playoffs for Busch after missing out last season. It was the first season of his career in which he didn’t win a race, which can’t possibly sit well with him. I think he will do whatever it takes to find his way into Victory Lane in 2025, and if he and RCR can’t do that, it might be time for him to consider hanging up his steering wheel.

William Byron
William Byron has been among the winningest drivers in the NASCAR Cup Series over the last two seasons, winning nine races. Between that and his Hendrick Motorsports equipment, it would be dumb not to think he will win at least once in the regular season to make the playoffs. For some reason, Byron seems to be an early-year driver who tends to fade, at least as far as winning races late in the season, despite finishing third in the standings in the last two years.

Ross Chastain
Ross Chastain not making the NASCAR Playoffs in 2024 shocked me. He had won two races each in the two seasons prior, and there was no reason to believe that he and Trackhouse Racing would take a step back. Chastain, like Buescher, did win a race in the playoffs. There may be a reason to believe Trackhouse takes a step back this season with the addition of a third car potentially pulling resources. Still, I look for at least somewhat of a resurgent year for Chastain, even if it’s only him returning to his two wins in 2022 and 2023.

Chase Elliott
Statistically, Chase Elliott was one of the best and most consistent drivers in the Cup Series in 2024 despite only winning once. He had 11 top-5s, 19 top-10s and an average finish of 11.7. He also led 431 laps. The wins will start coming more often again for the driver, who has seen a couple of down years since winning five races in 2022.

Ty Gibbs
This has to be the year Ty Gibbs finally wins in the Cup Series, right? Frankly, the fact Gibbs hasn’t won a race in his first two full-time seasons is one of the more shocking things I’ve seen in recent NASCAR. He drives for one of the two-to-three best teams in the sport for his grandfather’s Joe Gibbs Racing team and has a ton of talent, which we’ve seen in the Xfinity Series. His top-10s and average finish weren’t all that better in his sophomore year over his rookie year, despite his playoff debut, he did lead more than 300 more laps than the prior year. They say the 100-race mark is the key number for drivers in the Cup Series, and Gibbs will reach that around the 1/3 mark of the season.

Denny Hamlin
Denny Hamlin is the elder statesman of the NASCAR Cup Series now, which seems wild. We’ve seen with drivers of his ilk that once they get to around his age, they begin to win less and perform worse. However, Hamlin has managed to win multiple races every season since his winless campaign in 2018. Regression at this point wouldn’t be surprising, but he also won three races in 2024 and led more than 900 laps. I don’t see him falling off a cliff, which is what he’d need to miss the playoffs.

Brad Keselowski
Brad Keselowski finally snapped his long winless streak in 2024, winning for the first time as a car owner at Darlington Raceway. His consistency wasn’t all that special; in fact, he had fewer top-10s and a slightly worse average finish than the year before. There’s also some thought that Roush-Fenway-Keselowski Racing could take a step back this season by adding a third team. If there’s one driver in my predictions I’m most on the fence about, it’s Keselowski.

Kyle Larson
Kyle Larson is pretty much the year-in-year-out favorite to win the NASCAR Cup Series championship despite not having won the title since 2021. He led the series with six wins in 2024 and has won 13 races over the last three years. He’s going to get his share of trophies. It just comes down to if he can get them at the right time in the playoffs.

Joey Logano
Defending champion Joey Logano has won two of the last three NASCAR Cup Series titles. There’s this trend that I don’t believe in, that he’s only really a threat in even years. He finished 12th in the point standings in the year between his two most recent titles. His first title also came in an even year in 2018. He’s combined for eight wins in the last two even years and only two in the previous two odd years – but again, that must be a coincidence. I expect he’ll find his way into the playoffs, whether winning multiple races or not.

Tyler Reddick
Tyler Reddick came into 23XI racing in 2023 and instantly became the top driver of that team. He’s won five races over his two seasons with the organization and made it to his first Championship Four appearance last season, finishing fourth in the standings. He’s one of the most consistent drivers in the sport, and there aren’t many weaknesses in his game – though he’s yet to win at a short track. Look for him to win multiple races again this season.

Shane Van Gisbergen
Shane Van Gisbergen is an odd duck for NASCAR. If I had to place money on one driver to qualify for the NASCAR Playoffs, it would be Van Gisbergen. But then, if I had to put money on the playoff driver least likely to win the championship, it would also be Van Gisbergen. There’s zero chance he fails to win at least one of the five road course races in the regular season, which would qualify him for the playoffs. I suspect he’ll be average to less than average at the ovals. 

Which driver left off these predictions is most likely to make the NASCAR Playoffs?

Which driver included is most likely to miss out?