by Julian Spivey I’m not sure there is anything in the world of sports predictions that is more of a crapshoot than attempting to predict the NASCAR Cup Series Championship race at Phoenix Raceway with its winner-take-all format that pits four drivers/teams against each other and the highest finisher of the four is crowned the champion. But part of what we do here in the sports page of The Word on Pop Culture is predict sporting event outcomes so here we are attempting to predict something that we might have better luck at by rolling a die. There are three factors I like to consider when predicting the NASCAR champion: season statistics, playoff statistics, and Phoenix statistics. The least important of these is probably season statistics because they give the driver’s year as a whole and not how they’ve fared lately. For instance, if season-long numbers truly mattered in this NASCAR playoff format, the championship race would likely have Kyle Larson, Christopher Bell, and maybe Denny Hamlin competing in it. Here's how I think the Championship Four will fare in reverse order: 4. Tyler Reddick Tyler Reddick, the 28-year-old driver for the No. 45 23XI Racing Toyota, is looking for his first Cup Series championship but the way the nine previous playoff races have gone for him and his team he’s pretty lucky to be here and likely has only gotten this far because of the 15 bonus points he earned by winning the regular season points title after the first 25 races of the season. The only reason he made it to Phoenix in the previous round of the playoffs was a last-lap pass to win at Homestead-Miami Speedway over Ryan Blaney. With two DNFs in the other two races of the round, even a second-place finish at Homestead would’ve knocked him out of title contention. His luck this postseason has been dreadful with only two top-10s and his win being his only top-5. His average finish in the playoffs has been 19.8. He also has the least experience at Phoenix in the Cup Series with nine starts at the track, zero wins, two top-5s, three top-10s and an average finish of 17.9. With the Championship race being its own event these past results at Phoenix and throughout this postseason may mean little but the way that 23XI No. 45 team has been going lately I have to put Reddick as the fourth most likely to win the title. 3. William Byron William Byron has gained a bit of a reputation over the last couple of seasons as a fast starter who fades during the season and that has undoubtedly been the case when it comes to winning races this season. Byron and his No. 24 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet won three of the season’s first nine events and haven’t been to Victory Lane since. Byron has been the most consistent driver of the Championship Four this year with a 13.2 average finish, 12 top-5s and 20 top-10s and also has the most top-5s and top-10s throughout the playoffs but every year except for last year the champion has had to win the championship race and it’s been more than half a year since Byron has won. He does have a previous win in his career at Phoenix in 13 starts (something half of the Championship Four can’t say). His 11.8 average finish at the track is second among the four. I wouldn’t be surprised if Byron, who only made the title race due to Christopher Bell’s controversial penalty for riding the wall on the final lap at Martinsville last weekend, won the championship. Still, I’ve got him as the third most likely going into the race. OK, here’s the part where you find out who I’m predicting to win the NASCAR Cup Series Championship and you already know it’s going to come down to the Penske Racing teammates of Ryan Blaney and Joey Logano. Blaney and Logano are the two most recent NASCAR Cup Series champions and both have done so by performing at the top of their game with their respective teams in the playoffs after having so-so/average regular seasons. Both have done the same this postseason, though the No. 12 team of Blaney has been more consistent in doing so and the No. 22 team of Logano has used timely wins and the disqualification of another team to make it this far. Logano won the first race of the playoffs at Atlanta Motor Speedway to lock his way into the second round, got a bit lucky with Alex Bowman failing technical inspection at the Charlotte Roval to reach the third round and clinched his way into the title race winning at Las Vegas Motor Speedway on a killer job of saving fuel and strategy call from his crew chief Paul Wolfe. With only six top-5s, 12 top-10s and an average finish of 17.6 if Logano wins the championship he’d likely be the worst champion in the history of the sport. 2. Joey Logano Thankfully, I don’t think he’ll be the champion. But I do think his team’s effort when it matters most and his past numbers at Phoenix – three wins (two of which came in this winner-take-all format) – will help him take the runner-up spot. 1. Ryan Blaney That means that for the first time in this NASCAR playoff format, which began in 2014, NASCAR is going to have a back-to-back champion in Ryan Blaney. This format certainly isn’t conducive to repeat winners but Blaney is showing strength late in the season when it matters most and is following the same blueprint he did last season into the championship race. Last season he had to win the penultimate race of the season at Martinsville to make the title race. This season he had to do the same. He also finished second place the week before at Homestead and nearly clinched his way into the title race before being passed on the final lap by Reddick. So, he has an average finish of 1.5 in the two races leading up to the championship race. Blaney has never won at Phoenix – last season he became the first champion under this format to win the title without actually winning the race - which could cause some to believe he might not repeat but of the four drivers in the Championship Four his 10.9 average finish at the track is the best. I’m not saying Blaney is going to walk-off into the Championship sunset with a win – but I do think he’s the most likely of these four drivers to win the title.
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |
Archives
November 2024
|