Predicting Quarterfinals of College Football Playoff

by Eric Fulton

​The first round of the College Football Playoff didn’t have a whole lot of drama as far as the games were concerned. The real drama occurred when fans and coaches of teams that did not make the playoff complained that their teams should have been in over the ones that made it. Anyone can whine and moan about who got in and who didn't, but the truth was played on the field for about 12 weeks, and the right 12 teams deserved to be in their spots. 

What I loved about the opening weekend of the College Football Playoff was the atmosphere of all four games being on campus. Yes, it was December, and it was cold in three of the games, but you can't deny the excitement displayed in South Bend, Happy Valley, Austin and Columbus. The opening weekend proves that December football on college campuses is better than any neutral site.

I am not surprised that all four home teams won. The biggest surprise was that all the games were not competitively close. Clemson performed the best from a losing standpoint, but it felt like Notre Dame, Penn State, Texas and Ohio State were going to protect their home fields from the get-go, and the visitors did not have a chance. I went 3-1 on picking the first round, and now it is time to start breaking down the quarterfinal games.

No. 6. Penn State vs. No. 3 Boise State (Vrbo Fiesta Bowl - Glendale, Ariz) – Tuesday, Dec. 31 at 6:30 p.m. CST on ESPN

After blowing out SMU in the first round, No. 6 Penn State returns to Arizona and the Fiesta Bowl. The Nittany Lions are 7-0 all-time in the Fiesta Bowl, including a national championship win in 1987. Their defense set the tone against SMU, scoring two touchdowns off interception returns. They look to ride their wave of momentum against the Broncos. Boise State is also undefeated in the Fiesta Bowl, going 3-0. Their biggest win occurred at the Fiesta Bowl, 43-42 over Oklahoma in 2007. The Mountain West champions will look to their star running back to lead the way over Penn State. Ashton Jeanty, who finished second in the Heisman Trophy race, is having the greatest season by a running back in college football since Barry Sanders’ historic season in 1988. Jeanty currently has 2,497 yards and is less than 300 yards from breaking Sanders' record. He also leads FBS in scrimmage yards, rushing touchdowns and scoring. For Penn State to win the Fiesta Bowl, they must stop Jeanty and Nittany Lions quarterback Drew Allar has to play a better game than he did against SMU. Boise State has always been a great story and while Jeanty is a special player and will have a ton of success at the next level, I believe Penn State is more of a complete team than Boise State. Penn State is my pick.

No 5. Texas vs. No. 4 Arizona State (Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl - Atlanta, Ga.) – Wednesday, Jan. 1st at Noon CST on ESPN

The most surprising team in the college football playoff is Arizona State. They were predicted to finish last in their first year in the Big XII conference, but they ended up in the Big XII Championship game and defeated Iowa State. The real test will come against a Texas team trying to prove they are the nation's best. Although the Longhorns did not beat Georgia twice in the regular season, they have looked like a contender throughout the season. I thought they played well against Clemson. The Longhorns’ defense must control Sun Devils running back Cam Skattebo, and Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers must continue to play well for Texas to move on to the semifinals. My concern for Arizona State and all the top four teams in the playoff is the long layoff. I think Texas will capitalize on Arizona State's long rest and dominate this game from start to finish.

No. 8 Ohio State vs. No. 1 Oregon (Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential - Pasadena, Calif.) – Wednesday, Jan. 1st at 4:00 PM CST on ESPN

The Ohio State Buckeyes and Oregon Ducks gave us one of the best college football games of the season in October when Oregon prevailed 32-31 in Eugene, Ore. We all thought these two teams would meet again in the Big Ten Championship Game, but Ohio State lost to arch-rival Michigan on Thanksgiving Weekend, thus sending Penn State to take on Oregon in the Big Ten Championship Game. After their blowout win over Tennessee in the first round, the Buckeyes get their rematch against the Ducks in the "Granddaddy of them All." Oregon will lean on Heisman Finalist quarterback Dillion Gabriel, as they have all year long. The Ducks put up numbers against an excellent Buckeyes defense, but Oregon's defense did get exposed against an outstanding Ohio State offense. The biggest key for Ohio State is for quarterback Will Howard to play even better than he did against Tennessee and continue to limit the mistakes. This is a good matchup for Ohio State, and I believe it favors the Buckeyes over the Ducks, having played more recently. While Oregon is ranked No. 1 going into the playoffs and deservingly so, I can see this game being a shootout, and if Oregon can't limit the Buckeyes on defense, Ohio State can win this game. Oregon is good, but I think Ohio State will win this one.

No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 2 Georgia (Allstate Sugar Bowl - New Orleans, La.) – Wednesday, Jan. 1 at 7:30 P.M. CST on ESPN

Notre Dame started the college football playoff with a win over in-state opponent Indiana. While the final margin was 10 points, the Irish were clearly the better team for much of the game. Now they take on the No. 2 and SEC champion Bulldogs in New Orleans. Georgia is coming off an overtime win over Texas in the SEC Championship game. Georgia's defense once again made plays by limiting Texas' offensive chances. One key factor in the game for Georgia is quarterback; as Carson Beck will not play for the Bulldogs due to an injury, he sustained in the SEC Championship game. Gunnar Stockton will make his first career start for Georgia. Stockton played well in relief, leading Georgia on a game-winning drive in overtime. Having that extra time to prepare Stockton for this game will be key in developing how the game will go for him and the Georgia offense. For Notre Dame, I thought quarterback Riley Leonard had a good game, but he would need his absolute best against an excellent Georgia defense in order for the Irish to move on to the semifinals. This could be a close, low-scoring game, as both teams have very good defenses. I think Georgia wins a very tight and good game.