Predicting the 2026 NASCAR Chase for the Championship Drivers

by Julian Spivey

 
NASCAR listened to its fan base's complaints and has returned to a championship system that rewards consistency and point accumulation, rather than race wins. The new format gets rid of the playoff format that saw drivers eliminated after every three races and a winner-take-all championship race between four drivers. The spot has opted to return to the “Chase for the Championship” format it used between 2004 and 2013. The sixteen drivers who accumulate the most points during the first 26 races of the season will contend for the championship over the season’s final 10 races, with the driver scoring the most points during those 10 races being crowned champion.

Here are the 16 drivers I’m predicting to make the new Chase for the Championship:

1. Denny Hamlin
At 45, Denny Hamlin is the oldest driver in NASCAR’s premier series. This championship format will be his best, and possibly final, chance to win a championship that has eluded him his entire career. He’s the greatest driver in the sport’s history to have never won a title. He narrowly missed last year in the old winner-take-all format due to a late caution. This could be his year.

2. Christopher Bell
Christopher Bell should be a major threat under this Chase for the Champion format. He would’ve been second last year and only seven points behind the champion under this system. In fact, in three of the last four years, he would’ve finished in the top-3.

3. Kyle Larson
Kyle Larson excels at any championship format. He won in 2025 under the playoff system; he would’ve still won it under the current system, and he would’ve even won it under the old Winston Cup season-long points system. He’ll be a threat for sure.

4. Ryan Blaney
Ryan Blaney is a measure of consistency, so much in fact that under this current championship format, he would’ve finished exactly the same (fourth in the standings) in the last four years consecutively. Might as well predict him there to begin the season.

5. William Byron
William Byron wins a decent amount of races but always seems to start off hot in the season and then fade. He’ll need to stop that fade if he wants to succeed under this format. He would’ve been the regular-season points leader last year and found a way to fall all the way to fifth in the final 10 races.

6. Chase Elliott
Chase Elliott feels like a driver who’s great at accumulating points throughout the full season, especially as his win totals have dropped drastically in the last few years. But he would only have finished seventh in this format last year and hasn’t done better than third in it since 2020.

7. Joey Logano
Joey Logano was the greatest NASCAR driver of the playoff, winner-take-all playoff. He and his No. 22 Penske Racing team knew how to work the system better than anyone else, just making it through each round, winning races when it mattered most, and showing up at Phoenix Raceway (where the championship ended most years under that format) and coming out on top. Logano and the team will have to get more consistent for this format. Logano would’ve placed eighth last year.

8. Tyler Reddick
Tyler Reddick would’ve finished eighth in the last two seasons under this format, which is a good place to predict him at the start of the season. He’s going to have to find his winning ways again to be more of a threat, especially with first place now offering 50 points.

9. Chase Briscoe
Chase Briscoe is coming off his best season yet in the Cup Series, unsurprisingly, as 2025 was his first year with the powerhouse Joe Gibbs Racing team. Briscoe had his first multi-win season in 2025 and nearly doubled his previous high in top-10s. Briscoe would’ve finished third in the standings last season under this format, so I’m potentially underrating him at ninth place.

10. Chris Buescher
Chris Buescher could be the driver who benefits the most from the loss of the “win-and-you’re-in” playoff format. Buescher, who missed the playoffs the last two seasons, would’ve finished in the top-12 the last two seasons under this format. He would’ve been 12th last season and 11th the previous season. He probably does need to contend for more wins, though, to have a championship shot.

11. Bubba Wallace
Bubba Wallace and his No. 23 23XI Toyota team have to figure out ways to cut down on the number of did-not-finish results in 2026 if they want to make the Chase for the Championship. Wallace’s nine DNFs last season were second to only Cody Ware’s 11 in the Cup Series. He would’ve finished 11th in points last year under this format. Imagine how much higher that could’ve been had he had half as many DNFs.

12. Ross Chastain
Ross Chastain needs to figure out a way to win more races to truly have a championship shot. He’s only won one race in each of the last two seasons. Under this format, he would’ve placed 10th in the standings last season, and only 14th the season before that.

13. Alex Bowman
Alex Bowman is another driver who probably doesn’t win enough races to truly contend for a championship. He’s only won two races in the last four seasons, but with his good Hendrick Motorsports equipment, he should accumulate enough points to at least make the Chase portion of the season. He would’ve finished 14th in points last season under this format.

14. Brad Keselowski
Brad Keselowski would not have qualified for the Chase for the Championship last season under this format. But he does strike me as the kind of driver who would be good at accumulating points over a season-long format. He doesn’t win much anymore, only once in the last four seasons, but I’ll give him one of the final spots in the Chase.

15. Kyle Busch
Some NASCAR fans think Kyle Busch is washed. I’m not one of them. I just don’t think Richard Childress Racing is good enough to do much with. Busch hasn’t won a race in the last two seasons, which must be miserable for a competitor of his status. Maybe I’m being nostalgic, because he would not have made the Chase in either of the last two seasons, but I’ll put him in the top-16 this season. 

16. Ty Gibbs
​Ty Gibbs was the last driver into the NASCAR playoffs last season – making it in on points. He would not have made it had they been under the current season. He’s frankly been the biggest disappointment in NASCAR since he entered the Cup Series, having been such a success in the Xfinity (now O’Reilly Auto Parts) Series and driving in the sport’s best equipment for Joe Gibbs Racing. It’s time for Gibbs to show he belongs. He may not lose his ride because of Grandpop owning it, but if he had any other last name, he would be done.