Ranking the 2025 NASCAR Playoff Field

by Julian Spivey

16. Austin Dilon
Let’s face it – Austin Dillon is only in the playoffs because he and his No. 3 Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet team have figured out a way to be the absolute best team at Richmond, which is weird as hell, considering the team is pretty much junk everywhere. I’ve never seen a driver/team combination have one track where you could consider them a favorite and nothing else.

15. Josh Berry
Josh Berry won a race early on in the season at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, a place he’d won twice at in the Xfinity Series. Following that win, Berry has pretty much been a non-factor for the remainder of the season. He’s only had one other top-5 and four other top-10s this season. Maybe Las Vegas is to Berry what Richmond is to Dillon?

14. Alex Bowman
Alex Bowman was the last driver into the postseason on points and one of only two drivers to make the playoffs, along with Tyler Reddick, without winning a race to qualify. Bowman has six top-5s and 14 top-10s this season with a 16.4 average finish. If one of the first four drivers I’m predicting to be eliminated were to make the second round, I’d say he’s probably the most likely.

13. Shane Van Gisbergen
There are only two ways I see Shane Van Gisbergen, who is actually tied for the series lead with four wins, making it out of the first round of the NASCAR playoffs. 1) Other drivers have misfortune that knocks them out, which is something that seemingly happens annually, and 2) He’s able to finish just well enough to rely on his playoff points, which currently have him 16 points to the good to get him through. If Van Gisbergen can somehow make it through the first round, I think he’ll make it through the second round, as the Charlotte Motor Speedway Roval is among the tracks in that segment of the playoffs, and NOBODY is nearly as good at road racing in NASCAR as Van Gisbergen.
 
12. Tyler Reddick
Tyler Reddick just hasn’t been the same Tyler Reddick this season. He’s the most shocking non-winner of the year to me. I don’t know if the off-track stuff between 23XI Racing and NASCAR has been a factor or if the No. 45 team just hasn’t been able to get it done. However, I think he’ll at least be able to figure his way out of the first round of the playoffs.
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11. Ross Chastain
Ross Chastain won one of the biggest races of the season at the Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte Motor Speedway to clinch his spot in the playoffs, but other than that race, he hasn’t seemed very “winning” this season. He has only two other top-5 finishes other than his win. You have to run upfront more than Chastain has this season to be a playoff threat.

10. Bubba Wallace
Bubba Wallace had the shining moment of his career thus far with his Crown Jewel win at Indianapolis Motor Speedway in the Brickyard 400. Without that win, he may have found himself on the outside looking in for the second straight year. Wallace seems to be in the right mind frame to compete in the postseason, but his No. 23 23XI Racing Toyota team has had a lot of bad luck this season, including seven DNFs. 

9. Austin Cindric
Austin Cindric is having the best season of his career thus far. His 313 laps led are already more than any other season in his career. But his win at Talladega Superspeedway to clinch his playoff spot is only one of two top-5s this season, and he only has five total top-10s. He’s not running up front enough for me to place him in the top eight, though Penske Racing does seem to turn up its game come playoff time.

8. Chase Briscoe
Chase Briscoe has clearly been the third-best Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota this season in his first year in the No. 19, but his numbers are quite a bit better overall than the drivers I don’t have making the top eight. He has 10 top-5s this season, to go along with a series high six poles. His one win came at Pocono, but his win last season came at Darlington Raceway, which kicks off the playoffs this year.

7. Chase Elliott
Chase Elliott is quite the wonder in how he went from undoubtedly the best Hendrick Motorsports driver to the third best in a short period of time, and he’s not even out of his 20s yet. He enters the playoffs ranked seventh in the point standings, which is exactly where he finished in 2024, and it’s where I’m predicting him to finish this year. His one win came at the drafting track at Atlanta. He has seven top-5s and 13 top-10s this season.

6. Joey Logano
Joey Logano has an incredible knack for having mediocre regular seasons, getting into the playoffs by winning somewhere, and then somehow turning up the wick in the postseason, to the point where he’ll even go on and win the whole damn thing. That’s why I can’t put him any lower than No. 6 on this list. Once again, he hasn’t had a spectacular year. He only has three top-5s and seven top-10s, but he won at Texas Motor Speedway and got himself into the show. You simply can’t count him out.

5. Christopher Bell
I feel bad because fifth place in the playoffs is where Christopher Bell finished last year, and it’s where I have him once again this season, just on the outside looking in. Bell had a helluva start to the season, winning three races in a row early on, but those all came in the first month of the season, and he hasn’t seen Victory Lane since. He has nine top-5s and 14 top-10s, but he’s going to have to find his winning ways again to have a title shot.

4. Ryan Blaney
There’s just something about Ryan Blaney, like his Penske Racing teammate Joey Logano, and Penske in general, that seems like they’re made for the most important stretch of the season. Blaney is hot off his second win of the season at Daytona International Speedway last Saturday night and also won at Nashville this summer. His 10 top-5s are among the leaders in the sport.

3. William Byron
William Byron has been the most consistent driver in NASCAR this season, which is the reason he won the bonus as the regular season points leader. His nine top-5s and 13 top-10s are among the best in the Cup Series. He began the season by winning his second consecutive Daytona 500 and went on to win more recently at Iowa Speedway. Byron does seem to have a knack for trailing off as the season goes on, which he’ll need to avoid to make the Championship Four at Phoenix.

2. Kyle Larson
The only thing likely standing in Kyle Larson’s way of winning a second NASCAR championship is himself. He’s arguably the most talented driver in the sport, driving for arguably the best team in the sport, but sometimes he drives over his head/capabilities and puts himself in bad situations. His three wins are second in the sport behind only Denny Hamlin and road ace Shane Van Gisbergen, and he’s among the sport's leaders in top-5s with 11 and top-10s with 16. He’s led nearly 900 laps in the season’s first 26 races. If he can harness some of his bad habits, he’s probably the guy to beat.

1. Denny Hamlin
I honestly don’t know why I keep doing this … I frequently pick Denny Hamlin, the sport’s all-time greatest driver without a championship, to win a NASCAR championship. I guess I must know deep down that he deserves one, so surely it’s bound to happen. But at 44, he’s obviously running out of chances to get it done. He leads all drivers with four oval wins this season, and his 11 top-5s and 13 top-10s are among the series' best, as well. Is this the year he’ll finally hoist that trophy?