Super Bowl LIX Preview: Do the Chiefs or Eagles Have the Advantage?

by Eric Fulton & Julian Spivey

JS: Super Bowl LIX is this Sunday, February 9, on Fox at 5:30 p.m. (CST). For the second time in the last three years, America’s biggest sporting event will see the NFC Champion Philadelphia Eagles facing the AFC Champion Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs won the matchup two years ago and are looking to become the first team in NFL history to win three straight Super Bowls.
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JS. Let’s talk about which team has the advantages at the key positions. Regarding the all-important position of quarterback, which team has the advantage?

EF: I like Jalen Hurts as much as the next person, but this is a no-brainer. It is Patrick Mahomes, and he has had a chance to win four Super Bowls in the last six years. It is his and Kansas City's fifth Super Bowl in the past six years, which is incredible. It is something we probably will never see again. It is truly remarkable. Don't get me wrong, Hurts making his second Super Bowl in three years is great, but Mahomes is having a fantastic run.

JS: Yeah, the experience and three rings already on Mahomes' hand mean you have to give him the advantage at QB. He also seems to play at his best on the biggest stage. But you're also right about Hurts leading the Eagles to a second Super Bowl in three years. He's a solid quarterback, and I don't think he gets enough credit for leading this team. He also doesn't turn the ball over much.

JS: Philadelphia has had the best run game all season behind Saquon Barkley, who I believe we've both said over the postseason should be the league's MVP. Barkley ran for over 2,000 yards this season and over three playoff games, has 442 yards, so nearly 150 per game. The Chiefs have been relying a bit more on veteran Kareem Hunt, who they picked up midseason to carry the load on the running game. He has 108 yards over two postseason games on 25 carries. Isiah Pacheco has had just 10 carries this postseason for 30 yards. This one is pretty lopsided in favor of Philly, isn't it?

EF: Yeah, this is not close. Barkley is having an outstanding year. Hunt will probably score a touchdown in this one, but Barkley will have a great game in the Super Bowl.

JS: How many yards do you think Barkley will put on the Chiefs' defense?

EF: Barkley is the reason the Eagles will be in this game. Plus, what works for Saquon is he has the best offensive line in the NFL. He has to be fired up playing his first Super Bowl. I would say he gets about 130 yards on the ground.

JS: I agree that Barkley is the reason the Eagles are in the fight. If the Chiefs defense holds him to under 100 yards, the Eagles won’t have a shot.

JS: I know it’s a bit unorthodox to talk about the defenses before we get to the receiver corps, but let’s do that now. Do you think the Chiefs will keep Barkley from running all over them - even though 130 is a lot of rushing yards, it would be under his postseason per game average. And which of these teams has the best defensive unit?

EF: There have been times when I have seen the Chiefs’ defense exposed. But I think they can make adjustments and get a big stop when they need to, especially if the game is close and we assume it will be close. I will have to give the Eagles a slight edge on defense. I think they have played better than the Chiefs throughout the entire season.

JS: Statistically, this season, the Eagles had the best defense in the league. Teams only averaged 278.4 yards per game against them. The Chiefs defense was ninth in the league allowing 320.6. In the postseason, the teams are a bit closer in this category. The Eagles' D allowed four fewer TDs on the season than the Chiefs. Both have allowed five touchdowns in the postseason, but notably the Eagles have played one more game. I think the Eagles have the advantage on D too.

JS: OK, let's get back to the receiving corps. The Eagles' primary wide receivers are A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Jahan Dotson and tight end Dallas Goedert. The Chiefs’ biggest threat in the passing game is its veteran tight end Travis Kelce, along with receivers Xavier Worthy, DeAndre Hopkins, Hollywood Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster. Which team has the edge?

EF: This feels close between the two teams. I like the Eagles' receiving core with Brown, Smith and Goedert. However, the Chiefs acquired Hopkins in mid-season to go along with the veteran presence of Kelce and the rise of Worthy. I am going to take the Chiefs by an inch.

JS: Hopkins hasn’t done much this postseason. It’s likely because defenses are targeting him more, which has led to good postseason numbers for Worthy. Kelce has turned it up a notch in the postseason. It's no shock, as he’s always been Mahomes’s number one target. What’s wild is how often defenses have been leaving Kelce wide open. I’ll also give the Chiefs a slight edge at receiving.

JS: How do you think the special teams line up?

EF: Both teams have excellent kickers. Neither one has been perfect all season, but this will be a close game, and I have to give a slight edge to Harrison Butker over Jake Elliott.

JS: I know many people out there would love to see Super Bowl LIX end with Harrison Butker missing a game-winning field goal, and I can’t say I blame them. He’s one of the most despicable players in the league. But he’s also been one of the best kickers the game has had during his tenure with KC.

JS: Andy Reid is 3-2 in Super Bowl appearances. Nick Sirianni is 0-1. How big is the gap regarding the coaching advantage for the game?

EF: It feels massive because Sirianni can do some really dumb stuff that could cost the Eagles some games, but the talent overcomes his coaching sometimes. Reid is a mastermind, and I think we should debate the fact that Reid could be the greatest coach ever, especially if he becomes the first coach to win three straight Super Bowls. It is not even close as far as who the better coach is.

JS: So, what’s your prediction for Super Bowl LIX?

EF: It is going to be a great game. I am looking forward to it. I will say the Chiefs win a wild one, 38-35.

JS: I watched SportsCenter with Scott Van Pelt a few nights ago, and he asked ESPN NFL analyst Damien Woody for a Super Bowl LIX prediction. This is paraphrasing, but Woody said Chiefs because he doesn’t want to feel like an idiot picking against them and being wrong. It does feel like that because it feels like you need to see them lose first. I didn’t like them to win the AFC Championship two weeks ago, and I immediately had that feeling. But do you know what? I just feel like it’s the Eagle's year. They almost beat them two years ago, and now they have this run game that’s hard to stop. I won’t predict a score but I will predict the Eagles to win Super Bowl LIX with an MVP performance by Barkley.