Super Bowl LX: Which Team Has the Biggest Advantage?

by Julian Spivey

Super Bowl LX on Sunday, February 8 will see the AFC champion New England Patriots play the NFC Champion Seattle Seahawks at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, Calif.
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The big game will be a rematch of Super Bowl XLIX from 2015, which the Patriots one on game-saving interception by defensive back Malcolm Butler on a goal-line stand, which many thought should’ve been a run play instead of a pass. That game was ranked as eight greatest NFL game ever (and third highest Super Bowl) on NFL.com’s list of the 100 Greatest Games.

The Seahawks are 16-3 this season (including the playoffs) and the Patriots are 17-3, so on paper it might be an evenly matched Super Bowl. Let’s figure out which team has the advantages where…

Quarterback: Sam Darnold (Seahawks) vs. Drake Maye (Patriots)
Darnold: 4,048 yards (5th), 25 TD (9th), 14 INT (34th), 55.7 (19th)
Maye: 4,394 (4th), 31 (3rd), 8 (17th), 77.1 (1st)

Drake Maye is one of the NFL’s five MVP finalists, so you know he had a great season. He was fourth in the league in passing yards with nearly 4,400, he was third in the league with 31 touchdown passes and first in the league with a quarterback ratings of 77.1. The only knocks against Maye are that he’s young, he’s only in his second season, and it’s his first playoffs, let along Super Bowl appearance, and his play in the postseason hasn’t been what it was in the regular season. Maye has fumbled the ball six times in three postseason games and thrown two interceptions (he only had eight all regular season). Those knocks could prove huge in the Super Bowl.

Sam Darnold wasn’t as good as Maye in the regular season. He threw for fewer yards (though not many), threw six fewer touchdown passes, threw six more interceptions and his QBR was quite a bit worse, at only 19th best in the league. At 28, Darnold is more of a veteran, having been in the league for eight seasons, albeit only the last two at an above-average level. He’s been better than Maye this postseason, having zero turnovers and four touchdown passes in one fewer game (as the Seahawks had a Wild Card round bye). 

It’s hard to pick which team has the edge here, as Maye might well be named league MVP (probably not) by the team this game is played. But I don’t like what I’ve seen from Maye this postseason and turnovers can be killer in the Super Bowl, especially with the Seahawks averaging 36 points per game this postseason. I have to trust what my eyes have seen lately, not the complete season’s body of work. I’m giving the edge to the Seahawks here.

Advantage: Seahawks

Running Back: Kenneth Walker III (Seahawks) vs. TreVeyon Henderson & Rhamondre Stevenson (Patriots)

Walker III: 1,027 yards (16th), 5 rush touchdowns
Henderson: 911 yards (21st), 9 rush touchdowns
Stevenson: 603 yards, 7 rush touchdowns

Both the Seahawks and Patriots used tandem running corps this season, but the Seahawks lost half of their combo when Zach Charbonnet went down with a season-ending knee injury in the divisional round of the playoffs against the San Francisco 49ers. Charbonnet led the team during the regular season with 12 touchdowns. Walker has stepped up in a massive way without Charbonnet, with 116 rushing yards on 19 carries and three touchdowns against the 49ers and then 111 yards on 23 touches and a touchdown in the NFC  title game against the Los Angeles Rams. Henderson, a rookie, was the Pats' leading rusher during the regular season, but Stevenson has had the bulk of the carries in the postseason. Stevenson has 194 rushing yards on 51 carries during the Patriots' three playoff games, compared to just 57 yards on 24 carries for Henderson. The Pats have had a great defense this postseason, but Walker has looked mighty good over his two games.

Advantage: Seahawks

Wide Receivers & Tight End: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Cooper Kupp, Rashid Shaheed and A.J. Barner (Seahawks) vs. Stefon Diggs, Kayshon Boutte, Mack Hollins, DeMario Douglas, Hunter Henry & Austin Hooper (Patriots)

Smith-Njigba:1,793 yards (1st), 10 touchdowns (6th), 119 receptions (4th)
Kupp: 593 yards, 2 touchdowns, 47 receptions
Diggs: 1,013 yards (16th), 4 touchdowns, 85 receptions (12th)
Boutte: 551 yards, 6 touchdowns, 33 receptions

The Patriots have more receivers capable of doing big things in the Super Bowl, with four receivers with at least 400 receiving yards during the regular season, compared to just two for the Seahawks. The Pats also had two tight ends combine for 81 catches, more than 1,000 yards and nine touchdowns in Henry and Hooper. It’s pretty much just Smith-Njigba, Kupp and Barner for Sam Darnold in the passing game. However, Smith-Njigba was arguably the best receiver in the game this season, and Kupp has extensive playoff experience and was the Rams' No. 1 receiving option when they won Super Bowl LVI four years ago, a game in which Kupp was the MVP. It might be one of those situations where more options for Drake Maye prove to be big in the Super Bowl, but I’ve got to go with the best receiver and a proven playoff receiver in Smith-Njigba and Kupp.

Advantage: Seahawks

Defense:
The Patriots and Seahawks were the two best defenses in the league this season, with the lowest points allowed per game to opponents. The Seahawks allowed 17.1 ppg to opponents, and the Pats allowed 17.3, so the teams were basically even in that regard. The Seahawks allowed the fewest yards per play to opponents this season at 4.6 per play. The Pats allowed 5.2 yards per play – again fairly even. The Patriots' defense during the postseason has been the best of the two. The Pats defense is the only reason they’ve made it this far, with how poorly the offense has played at times. The Patriots have allowed 209.7 yards per game through their first three playoff games. The Seahawks have allowed 357.5 over their two games. The Patriots have 12 sacks this postseason, whereas the Seahawks have 3 in one fewer game. What the Seahawks have excelled at defensively in the postseason is in turnovers, where they have a postseason-leading 4-plus differential, despite one fewer game than the Pats and other playoff teams. Both teams are very close when it comes to advantage on defense, so I’m going to go with the more impressive D over the postseason, and that has been New England’s.

Advantage: Patriots

Kickers: Jason Meyers (Seahawks) vs. Andy Borregales (Patriots)
We’ve seen in the past Super Bowls come down to a kicker making a field goal as time expires – the Patriots are no strangers to winning Super Bowls in that fashion. But can you trust a rookie kicker in such a situation? That might be where the Patriots find themselves with rookie kicker Andy Borregales, who missed two field goals during the AFC championship game against the Denver Broncos, though the weather was atrocious in the second half of that game. Borregales was 27-for-32 (84.5%) on field goals during the regular season and is 4-for-6 in the postseason. Seahawks kicker Jason Meyers, a veteran who has been with the team since 2019 and in the league since 2015, was 41-for-48 (85.4%) on field goals this season. Meyers’ 171 total points were the most in the league this season and are the most in league history for a player without a touchdown. I’ve got to go with the vet here.

Advantage: Seahawks

Coaching: Mike Macdonald (Seahawks) vs. Mike Vrabel (Patriots)
Both of these coaches are making their Super Bowl debuts as NFL head coaches, but Mike Vrabel had plenty of playing time in four Super Bowls with the Patriots, winning three of them. I wouldn’t expect any big game jitters from Vrabel, who was just honored as NFL Coach of the Year on Thursday (February 5). It’s amazing what Vrabel has done in his first year as coach of the Patriots, leading them to a 14-3 record and the Super Bowl after the team had gone 4-13 in each of the previous two seasons. At 38, Mike Macdonald is one of the youngest coaches in the NFL. It’s his second year as Seahawks head coach, and he’s done a remarkable job leading the Seahawks to a 24-10 combined record (26-10 if you include the postseason) during that tenure. I have to give Vrabel the edge here simply because he knows how Super Bowls go, and he has more overall coaching experience, which might come in handy in a tight game.

Advantage: Patriots

Prediction: Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl LX

Why: This could be a truly close game, and the winner could come down to which team makes the bigger plays in key moments. I have the Seahawks with the offensive advantage, the Patriots with the defensive advantage (albeit just slightly) and the coaching advantage. But the Patriots' turnovers throughout the postseason, and the difference in Drake Maye’s play in the postseason compared to the regular season (he lost the MVP by one vote to Rams QB Matthew Stafford), have me concerned the Patriots might not be ready to regain the throne.