by Julian Spivey The American League Championship Series between the Houston Astros and New York is the exact opposite of what’s going on on the National League side of the playoff bracket. Whereas the two lowest seeds in the N.L. the San Diego Padres and Philadelphia Phillies found their way past three division winners and three 100-plus game winners into the National League Championship Series, the A.L. side of things is more traditional in that it features the two teams with the best records on the season in the 106-56 A.L. West winning Astros and the 99-63 A.L. East winning Yankees. Let’s take a look at the team’s position-by-position and find out which one has the ALCS advantage. Rotation: The Houston Astros rotation is so good that they were using talented members of their starting staff in Luis Garcia and Christian Javier out of the bullpen in the American League Division Series against the Seattle Mariners. The Astros have probable A.L. Cy Young winner Justin Verlander going in game one of the A.L.C.S., which will be a huge advantage for the team facing a Yankees squad that’s going to have to both travel from NYC to Houston and play game one of the series merely 24 hours after vanquishing the Cleveland Guardians in the Division Series. Verlander was uncharacteristically shaky in his game one start in the A.L.D.S. against the Mariners going only four innings and allowing six runs, but surely that was just a fluke for the veteran who’s pitched in multiple World Series. The Astros should have quality start machine Framber Valdez going in game two of the series. Valdez pitched 5.2 innings in the A.L.D.S. against Seattle, allowing two runs on four hits while striking out six. Lance McCullers Jr. is likely to be the game three starter for Houston. McCullers pitched six scoreless innings against the Mariners in game three of the A.L.D.S. Verlander was 18-4 this season with a league-leading 1.75 ERA, Valdez was 17-6 with a 2.82 ERA and McCullers was 4-2 with a 2.27 ERA in limited action this season. I’m not sure what the Astros have planned for game four of the series, but it should probably be Garcia who was dominant in extra innings out of the bullpen in the clinching third game of the A.L.D.S. against the Mariners. The Yankees have had some bad luck going when it comes to setting up their rotation for the A.L.C.S. Jameson Taillon, who’s probably their fourth-best starter, is going in game one after a Division Series that went the distance against the Guardians and was delayed by a rain postponement has them mix-matching their rotation right now. Taillon was 14-5 with a 3.91 ERA this season. The rest of the series will be some sort of formation of Luis Severino, Gerrit Cole and Nestor Cortes Jr. for the Yanks. Severino was 7-3 this season with a 3.18 ERA in limited work due to injury. He pitched 5.2 innings against the Guardians allowing three runs and striking out six. Cole, the Yankees ace, was 13-8 this season with a 3.50 ERA and led the game with 257 strikeouts. Cole made two starts in the A.L.D.S. against the Guardians going 2-0 with a 2.03 ERA in 13.1 innings and striking out 16. Cortes also made two starts in the series against the Guardians, including coming up big in the decisive fifth game of the series on just three-days rest. Cortes was 12-4 with a 2.44 ERA this season as arguably the team’s best starting pitcher in 2022. The Astros have the best rotation between these two teams period, but also with the unfortunate way the Yankees have to set up the series it’s a clear advantage for Houston. Advantage: Astros Bullpen: Much has been made this season about how the Yankees don’t really have a true closer. Aroldis Chapman imploded this season and isn’t even on the playoff roster. Clay Holmes has been the team’s best reliever but has had shaky moments closing himself. After Holmes, the arms used the most out of the pen for the Yankees this season have been Lou Trivino (4.57 ERA), Lucas Luetge (2.68 ERA), Michael King (2.29 ERA), Jonathan Loaisiga (4.12 ERA) and Wandy Peralta (2.73 ERA). It’s not a bad bullpen, but it’s not going to scare anyone either. The Astros have one of the best closers in the American League in Ryan Pressly who compiled 33 saves this season with a 2.99 ERA. The other most used arms out of the pen for Houston include Hector Nerris (3.73 ERA), Rafael Montero (2.38 ERA) and Bryan Abreu (1.95 ERA). I also believe the Astros will be using Christian Javier and Jose Urquidy, usually starting pitchers, out of the bullpen in the A.L.C.S. Advantage: Astros Catcher: The Astros love the way veteran pitch caller Martin Maldonado handles the pitching staff. He doesn’t hit much, but they don’t really care with the rest of the boppers in their lineup. From what I saw in the A.L.D.S. against the Mariners Maldonado has been catching the starters and then later in the game Christian Vazquez has been entering the game for some offensive help. Maldonado hit a measly .186 this season, but again the Astros aren’t so concerned about that. The Yankees backstop Jose Trevino was a first-time All-Star this season and surprised many with his production for the team. Trevino hit .248 with 11 homers and 43 RBI this season. I don’t think either of these catchers is going to have a huge offensive impact on the series, but I’ll give the Yanks the advantage because if one does it’ll likely be Trevino. Advantage: Yankees First Base: Yuli Gurriel was the 2021 batting champion in the A.L. for the Astros but spent much of 2022 scuffling at the plate hitting only .242 with eight home runs and 53 RBI. He did lead the Astros with a .400 average in their three games in the Division Series though. The Yankees have veteran Anthony Rizzo at first base. Rizzo hit .224 this season with 32 homers and 75 RBI. In the Division Series against the Guardians, he was one of the team’s better hitters. Advantage: Yankees Second Base: Jose Altuve has been baseball’s best second baseman over the last decade and is probably still the best in his league. He’s also been one of the greatest postseason players of all time and he’s certainly used to the big moments in his six straight A.L.C.S. Altuve hit .300 this season with 28 homers and 57 RBI. This postseason he’s hitless through three games. Gleyber Torres is at second base for the Yankees and hit .257 this season with 24 home runs and 76 RBI. He didn’t do a whole lot at the plate in the A.L.D.S. against Cleveland. Advantage: Astros Third Base: Alex Bregman is one of the best at the hot corner in the A.L., though hasn’t quite lived up to his back-to-back All-Star seasons of 2018 and 2019 over the last few seasons. He hit .259 this season with 23 home runs and 93 RBI. Josh Donaldson is manning the hot corner for the Yankees. He hit .222 this season with 15 homers and 62 RBI and doesn’t seem to be near the threat he was in his MVP-winning heyday. Advantage: Astros Shortstop: Rookie Jeremy Pena had one of the biggest hits of the A.L.D.S. for the Astros, putting us all out of our misery in a never-ending 18-inning game three with a game-winning homer. Pena hit .253 in his freshman year with 22 homers and 63 RBI. Isiah Kiner-Falefa is a light-hitting shortstop with some speed for the Yankees. He hit .261 this season with four homers, 48 RBI and 22 stolen bases. Advantage: Astros Outfield: The Yankees have the biggest masher in all of baseball in Aaron Judge coming off the biggest (clean) power-hitting season in baseball history with an American League record 62 home runs. He also hit .311 and drove in a league-leading 131 runs in an epic season. A guy who doesn’t hit that many homers is Yankees center fielder Harrison Bader, but he actually led the team in the A.L.D.S. against the Guardians with three in five games. He spent much of the season injured but plays stellar defense in the outfield at all times. The Yanks have been using Oswaldo Cabrera as their third outfielder lately. He only had 154 at-bats in the regular season hitting .247 with six homers. The Astros have a scary outfield offensively led by Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker at the corners. Alvarez hit .306 this season with 37 blasts and 97 RBI as the team’s offensive leader. Tucker hit .257 with 30 homers and a team-leading 107 RBI. Chas McCormick mans center field for Houston and hit .245 this season with 14 homers and 44 RBI. Alvarez hit two homers for Houston in the A.L.D.S. and drove in seven. Judge is the best outfielder in the series, but I’ll take the two power hitters of Alvarez and Tucker here for the advantage. Advantage: Astros Designated Hitter: The Astros acquired Trey Mancini from the Baltimore Orioles before the trade deadline and he’s been getting many of the at-bats at DH, with Alvarez playing the outfield. Mancini hit .239 this season with 18 home runs and 63 RBI. He was 0-for-6 in the A.L.D.S. Power-hitting Giancarlo Stanton is the DH for the Yankees and even when he’s scuffling can put fear into the opposing pitchers. Stanton hit .211 this season with 31 blasts and 78 RBI. He homered twice against Cleveland in the A.L.D.S. Advantage: Yankees Prediction: Astros in 6 games
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