by Julian Spivey
The 2022 World Series between the Houston Astros and the Philadelphia Phillies might seem like David vs. Goliath based on the season records of the teams with the 106-56 Astros taking on the role of Goliath and the 87-69 Phillies being the underdog. But the way the Phillies have been playing this offseason it might not be such a shock if David beat Goliath. I’m just not sure I’m predicting it to happen.

Let’s break down the team’s position by position.

Rotation:
Both the Astros and Phillies have had four full days off between the League Championship Series and the World Series, so both teams should have their rotations set up the way they’d want them to be. Because of that, we should have about as equal a World Series as we can with each team’s best matching head-to-head. Still, one team has a rather large advantage when it comes to the quantity of solid arms and that’s the Astros. The Astros actually haven’t named their game-one starter (as of the time of this writing), but I imagine it’ll be American League Cy Young front-runner Justin Verlander. Following Verlander will likely be Framber Valdez, who has been a quality start machine for the Astros, in game two. Games three and four will likely be some combination of Cristian Javier and Lance McCullers Jr.

Verlander has made two starts for the Astros this postseason going 1-0 with 14 strikeouts and a 6.30 ERA that was inflated by an atypically bad start (maybe his worst of the entire season) against the Seattle Mariners in the American League Division Series. Valdez is 1-0 with 15 strikeouts and a 1.42 ERA in a team-leading 15.2 innings pitcher this postseason. McCullers has started two games for the Astros this postseason with a 2.45 ERA and 13 strikeouts in 11 innings. Javier’s one playoff start came in the A.L.C.S. against the Yankees in which he went 5.1 innings of one-hit, shutout ball.

Aaron Nola is slated for game one for the Phillies. His first two postseason starts against the St. Louis Cardinals and Atlanta Braves were near-perfect, but he struggled a bit in his N.L.C.S. start against the San Diego Padres. He’s 2-1 this postseason with a 3.12 ERA and 18 strikeouts in 17.1 innings. Zack Wheeler will likely take the mound in game two for Philly. His four starts this postseason are the most on the team and he’s 1-1 with 25 strikeouts and a 1.78 ERA in 25.1 innings. Ranger Suarez is Philadelphia’s third starter with two starts this postseason – one each in the N.L.D.S. against the Braves and N.L.C.S. against the Padres. Suarez is 1-0 this postseason with a 2.00 ERA and eight strikeouts in nine innings. He also recorded a save in the N.L.D.S. If the Phillies opt for a fourth starting pitcher in the World Series instead of a bullpen game it’ll likely be veteran Noah Syndergaard on the mound. He’s made three appearances this postseason with only one being a start. In 5.1 innings pitched he has a 1.69 ERA with four strikeouts.

I think Nola and Wheeler can hang with the best the Astros have, but the fact the Astros have four solid starters to go (and honestly two more in the bullpen in Luis Garcia and Jose Urquidy) they have the advantage with their depth.

Advantage: Astros

Bullpen:
Four of the Astros seven playoff wins thus far have come from their bullpen stepping up big late in games. The four guys getting the bulk of the innings for Houston’s pen have been closer Ryan Pressly (0.00 ERA with four saves and eight strikeouts in 5.1 innings), Bryan Abreu (0.00 ERA with 10 strikeouts in 6.1 innings), Rafael Montero (1.69 ERA with six strikeouts in 5.1 innings) and Hector Neris (2.25 ERA with five strikeouts in four innings).

Jose Alvarado has been the most used arm for the Phillies this postseason getting into eight of the team’s 10 games. Alvarado has a 3.38 ERA in eight innings with nine strikeouts. Seranthony Dominguez has been a strikeout machine for the Phillies out of the pen with 15 in just 7.2 innings pitched. He has an ERA of 1.17 and has been the team’s most effective reliever. Zac Eflin has appeared in six games this postseason with a rather high 5.68 ERA in 6.1 innings. David Robertson, who was the team’s closer this season, has only appeared in four games so far this postseason due to missing the N.L.D.S. due to injury. Robertson has pitched 3.2 innings with six strikeouts and a 2.45 ERA. The Phillies have gotten four saves this postseason with four pitchers each getting one (Alvarado, Dominguez, Eflin and Ranger Suarez).

Advantage: Astros

Catcher:
As I mentioned in my A.L.D.S. and A.L.C.S. previews the Astros intentionally give up offensive production at the catcher position because the team loves the way Martin Maldonado handles its impressive pitching staff. If the Astros wanted more offensive production from the position they’d give Christian Vazquez, whom they acquired prior to the trade deadline from the Red Sox. Maldonado is a meek hitter with a .214 average and one RBI this postseason. Vazquez has only appeared in three of the Astros seven postseason games and is 2-for-10 at the plate.

The Phillies, on the other hand, have maybe the best complete catcher in baseball when compiling offensive and defensive numbers. J.T. Realmuto is nearly impossible to run on and is one of the best offensive catchers in the game. Realmuto is hitting .244 this postseason with two homers (one of which was an inside-the-parker) and three RBI. There’s probably more distance between Realmuto and the Astros catchers than any other position in this series.

Advantage: Phillies

First Base:
Astros first baseman Yuli Gurriel was the American League batting champion in 2021 and absolutely fell off the table this season hitting nearly 80 points less. However, Gurriel has turned things around in the postseason and leads the team with a .367 average. He has two homers and three RBI to go along with it.

Rhys Hoskins has been an interesting case for the Phillies this postseason. His average is just .182, but he’s found his power stroke co-leading the team with five home runs and 11 RBI. Five of his eight hits this postseason have left the yard.

This one’s hard for me. Gurriel seems more likely to get on base, but Hoskins’ power stroke right now seems more likely to have a bigger impact on the series with the ability to put up crooked numbers with one swing. I’m going to give the advantage to Gurriel because he’s been getting on base more often and setting the table for the other great hitters in Houston’s lineup.

Advantage: Astros

Second Base:
Jose Altuve has been the best second baseman in Major League Baseball over the last decade but has been surprisingly and uncharacteristically cold this postseason at the plate. Altuve opened the playoffs with a historically bad hitless streak and has a .094 average without driving in any runs. He’s also struck out a team-leading 11 times this postseason.

Jean Segura had played the most games of any player in MLB without a postseason appearance prior to the Phillies Cinderella run this October. He’s been solid for Philly hitting .257 with five RBI.

I know Altuve is the better player of these two and that he has the potential to get hot and be more of a game-changer than Segura, but I’ve got to ride the hotter player right now and that simply isn’t Altuve.

Advantage: Phillies

Third Base:
Alex Bregman was a back-to-back All-Star in 2018 and 2019 but has had some injury problems and struggles since then. He has been one of the Astros hottest hitters this postseason with a .333 average, two homers and seven RBI.

Bregman’s counterpart on the Phillies, Alec Bohm, hasn’t done a whole lot at the plate this postseason hitting just .189 with five RBI.

Advantage: Astros

Shortstop:
In what might be a World Series first both teams feature rookie shortstops. It’s been a tale of two stories for those shortstops this postseason, though. The Astros 25-year old rookie Jeremy Pena has been one of the club’s hottest hitters with a team-leading three home runs to go along with five RBI and a .303 average (third highest on the team). Bryson Stott, the Phillies’ 25-year-old shortstop, has hit .200 with three RBI.

Advantage: Astros

Outfield:
There is an awful lot of pop at the corners of the outfield for both of these teams. Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker were the Astros two-leading home run hitters this season and Kyle Schwarber led the National League in homers with 46 this season and despite a down year Nicholas Castellanos is always capable of changing a game with just one swing. Both teams have lighter-hitting center fielders mostly in the lineup for their defense with Chas McCormick for Houston and Brandon Marsh for Philadelphia.

Alvarez has hit two big-time homers for the Astros this postseason and leads the team with eight RBI and sports a .241 average. Tucker hasn’t been hitting so well this postseason with a .214 average and one solo homer. McCormick has two homers and three RBI this postseason to go along with a .250 average.

Schwarber was pretty much dormant for the Phillies in the N.L.W.C. and N.L.D.S. but came alive in the N.L.C.S. against the San Diego Padres. Schwarber has three homers and six RBI this postseason while hitting .200. Castellanos hasn’t done a whole lot this postseason with a .220 average and six RBI. Marsh is hitting a measly .154 with a homer and four RBI (three of which came on the homer).

It’s a pretty close matchup between the outfielders, but I’ll take the playoff experience of the Astros here.

Advantage: Astros

Designated Hitter:
With all apologies to Trey Mancini of the Astros, who’s just an all-around great story having come back from cancer to now reach the World Series, but this matchup isn’t close at all. Bryce Harper has been the best hitter this entire postseason for any team. He leads the Phillies in all three Triple Crown categories this postseason with a .419 average, five homers and 11 RBI. He has 11 extra-base hits this postseason on his tear. He is the single scariest hitter in the World Series.

Mancini hasn’t done anything for Houston this postseason. He’s 0-for-12 with four strikeouts. The Astros might opt to start Alvarez at DH and play Aledmys Diaz in the outfield at some points in the series.

Advantage: Phillies

Prediction: Astros in 6 games 

by Julian Spivey
The American League Championship Series between the Houston Astros and New York is the exact opposite of what’s going on on the National League side of the playoff bracket. Whereas the two lowest seeds in the N.L. the San Diego Padres and Philadelphia Phillies found their way past three division winners and three 100-plus game winners into the National League Championship Series, the A.L. side of things is more traditional in that it features the two teams with the best records on the season in the 106-56 A.L. West winning Astros and the 99-63 A.L. East winning Yankees.

Let’s take a look at the team’s position-by-position and find out which one has the ALCS advantage.

Rotation:
The Houston Astros rotation is so good that they were using talented members of their starting staff in Luis Garcia and Christian Javier out of the bullpen in the American League Division Series against the Seattle Mariners. The Astros have probable A.L. Cy Young winner Justin Verlander going in game one of the A.L.C.S., which will be a huge advantage for the team facing a Yankees squad that’s going to have to both travel from NYC to Houston and play game one of the series merely 24 hours after vanquishing the Cleveland Guardians in the Division Series. Verlander was uncharacteristically shaky in his game one start in the A.L.D.S. against the Mariners going only four innings and allowing six runs, but surely that was just a fluke for the veteran who’s pitched in multiple World Series. The Astros should have quality start machine Framber Valdez going in game two of the series. Valdez pitched 5.2 innings in the A.L.D.S. against Seattle, allowing two runs on four hits while striking out six. Lance McCullers Jr. is likely to be the game three starter for Houston. McCullers pitched six scoreless innings against the Mariners in game three of the A.L.D.S. Verlander was 18-4 this season with a league-leading 1.75 ERA, Valdez was 17-6 with a 2.82 ERA and McCullers was 4-2 with a 2.27 ERA in limited action this season. I’m not sure what the Astros have planned for game four of the series, but it should probably be Garcia who was dominant in extra innings out of the bullpen in the clinching third game of the A.L.D.S. against the Mariners.

The Yankees have had some bad luck going when it comes to setting up their rotation for the A.L.C.S. Jameson Taillon, who’s probably their fourth-best starter, is going in game one after a Division Series that went the distance against the Guardians and was delayed by a rain postponement has them mix-matching their rotation right now. Taillon was 14-5 with a 3.91 ERA this season. The rest of the series will be some sort of formation of Luis Severino, Gerrit Cole and Nestor Cortes Jr. for the Yanks.

Severino was 7-3 this season with a 3.18 ERA in limited work due to injury. He pitched 5.2 innings against the Guardians allowing three runs and striking out six. Cole, the Yankees ace, was 13-8 this season with a 3.50 ERA and led the game with 257 strikeouts. Cole made two starts in the A.L.D.S. against the Guardians going 2-0 with a 2.03 ERA in 13.1 innings and striking out 16. Cortes also made two starts in the series against the Guardians, including coming up big in the decisive fifth game of the series on just three-days rest. Cortes was 12-4 with a 2.44 ERA this season as arguably the team’s best starting pitcher in 2022.

The Astros have the best rotation between these two teams period, but also with the unfortunate way the Yankees have to set up the series it’s a clear advantage for Houston.  

Advantage: Astros

Bullpen:
Much has been made this season about how the Yankees don’t really have a true closer. Aroldis Chapman imploded this season and isn’t even on the playoff roster. Clay Holmes has been the team’s best reliever but has had shaky moments closing himself. After Holmes, the arms used the most out of the pen for the Yankees this season have been Lou Trivino (4.57 ERA), Lucas Luetge (2.68 ERA), Michael King (2.29 ERA), Jonathan Loaisiga (4.12 ERA) and Wandy Peralta (2.73 ERA). It’s not a bad bullpen, but it’s not going to scare anyone either.

The Astros have one of the best closers in the American League in Ryan Pressly who compiled 33 saves this season with a 2.99 ERA. The other most used arms out of the pen for Houston include Hector Nerris (3.73 ERA), Rafael Montero (2.38 ERA) and Bryan Abreu (1.95 ERA). I also believe the Astros will be using Christian Javier and Jose Urquidy, usually starting pitchers, out of the bullpen in the A.L.C.S.

Advantage: Astros

Catcher:
The Astros love the way veteran pitch caller Martin Maldonado handles the pitching staff. He doesn’t hit much, but they don’t really care with the rest of the boppers in their lineup. From what I saw in the A.L.D.S. against the Mariners Maldonado has been catching the starters and then later in the game Christian Vazquez has been entering the game for some offensive help. Maldonado hit a measly .186 this season, but again the Astros aren’t so concerned about that.

The Yankees backstop Jose Trevino was a first-time All-Star this season and surprised many with his production for the team. Trevino hit .248 with 11 homers and 43 RBI this season.

I don’t think either of these catchers is going to have a huge offensive impact on the series, but I’ll give the Yanks the advantage because if one does it’ll likely be Trevino.  

Advantage: Yankees

First Base:
Yuli Gurriel was the 2021 batting champion in the A.L. for the Astros but spent much of 2022 scuffling at the plate hitting only .242 with eight home runs and 53 RBI. He did lead the Astros with a .400 average in their three games in the Division Series though.

The Yankees have veteran Anthony Rizzo at first base. Rizzo hit .224 this season with 32 homers and 75 RBI. In the Division Series against the Guardians, he was one of the team’s better hitters.

Advantage: Yankees
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Second Base:
Jose Altuve has been baseball’s best second baseman over the last decade and is probably still the best in his league. He’s also been one of the greatest postseason players of all time and he’s certainly used to the big moments in his six straight A.L.C.S. Altuve hit .300 this season with 28 homers and 57 RBI. This postseason he’s hitless through three games.

Gleyber Torres is at second base for the Yankees and hit .257 this season with 24 home runs and 76 RBI. He didn’t do a whole lot at the plate in the A.L.D.S. against Cleveland.

Advantage: Astros

Third Base:
Alex Bregman is one of the best at the hot corner in the A.L., though hasn’t quite lived up to his back-to-back All-Star seasons of 2018 and 2019 over the last few seasons. He hit .259 this season with 23 home runs and 93 RBI.

Josh Donaldson is manning the hot corner for the Yankees. He hit .222 this season with 15 homers and 62 RBI and doesn’t seem to be near the threat he was in his MVP-winning heyday.

Advantage: Astros

Shortstop:
Rookie Jeremy Pena had one of the biggest hits of the A.L.D.S. for the Astros, putting us all out of our misery in a never-ending 18-inning game three with a game-winning homer. Pena hit .253 in his freshman year with 22 homers and 63 RBI.

Isiah Kiner-Falefa is a light-hitting shortstop with some speed for the Yankees. He hit .261 this season with four homers, 48 RBI and 22 stolen bases.

Advantage: Astros

Outfield:
The Yankees have the biggest masher in all of baseball in Aaron Judge coming off the biggest (clean) power-hitting season in baseball history with an American League record 62 home runs. He also hit .311 and drove in a league-leading 131 runs in an epic season. A guy who doesn’t hit that many homers is Yankees center fielder Harrison Bader, but he actually led the team in the A.L.D.S. against the Guardians with three in five games. He spent much of the season injured but plays stellar defense in the outfield at all times. The Yanks have been using Oswaldo Cabrera as their third outfielder lately. He only had 154 at-bats in the regular season hitting .247 with six homers.

The Astros have a scary outfield offensively led by Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker at the corners. Alvarez hit .306 this season with 37 blasts and 97 RBI as the team’s offensive leader. Tucker hit .257 with 30 homers and a team-leading 107 RBI. Chas McCormick mans center field for Houston and hit .245 this season with 14 homers and 44 RBI. Alvarez hit two homers for Houston in the A.L.D.S. and drove in seven.

Judge is the best outfielder in the series, but I’ll take the two power hitters of Alvarez and Tucker here for the advantage.

Advantage: Astros

Designated Hitter:
The Astros acquired Trey Mancini from the Baltimore Orioles before the trade deadline and he’s been getting many of the at-bats at DH, with Alvarez playing the outfield. Mancini hit .239 this season with 18 home runs and 63 RBI. He was 0-for-6 in the A.L.D.S.
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Power-hitting Giancarlo Stanton is the DH for the Yankees and even when he’s scuffling can put fear into the opposing pitchers. Stanton hit .211 this season with 31 blasts and 78 RBI. He homered twice against Cleveland in the A.L.D.S.

Advantage: Yankees

Prediction: Astros in 6 games

by Julian Spivey
The National League Championship Series between the San Diego Padres and Philadelphia Phillies is the most surprising and unlikely NLCS in Major League Baseball history. It’s the first time there isn’t a division winner among the teams competing for the chance to reach the World Series with the addition of the third Wild Card making it a possibility for the first time in the sport’s history.
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Despite the fact that few, if any, believed a Padres vs. Phillies NLCS was possible it should be a fun series in that the teams are pretty close, at least on paper. Both teams have high-powered offensive superstars in Manny Machado and Juan Soto for San Diego and Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber for Philadelphia. The pitching staffs are full of ace-caliber pitchers with Yu Darvish, Blake Snell and Joe Musgrove highlighting the Padres’ rotation and Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola taking the mound for Philly.

Let’s take a look at the team’s position-by-position and find out which one has the NLCS advantage.

Rotation:

*Note* The probable starting pitcher for game one for the Phillies is actually Zack Wheeler with Aaron Nola going in game two

The rotations for both the Padres and Phillies have been pretty stellar this postseason. Aaron Nola has been the best pitcher on the National League side thus far dominating the St. Louis Cardinals in the National League Wild Card Series and the Atlanta Braves in the National League Division Series and both of those teams sported top-notch offenses. Nola hasn’t allowed a run in 12.2 innings thus far going 2-0 in his two starts with 12 strikeouts. Nola’s game one competitor tonight will be Yu Darvish, who’s also 2-0 this postseason beating the New York Mets in the NLWC and Los Angeles Dodgers in the NLDS, also two high-powered offenses, while compiling a 3.00 ERA in a dozen innings pitched. Darvish has struck out 11 batters this postseason. When it comes to their regular season numbers Darvish had a better record and slightly lower ERA, but Nola strikes out more hitters.

The game two probable pitchers for the series are Blake Snell for the Padres, a pitcher with big-time postseason outings before reaching the 2020 World Series with the Tampa Bay Rays, and Zack Wheeler for the Phillies. Snell is 1-0 this postseason beating the Dodgers in the NLDS. He has a 3.12 ERA in 8.2 innings with 11 strikeouts. Snell has been a bit wild this postseason with eight walks in two starts. Wheeler has been the better of these two starters this postseason, despite having a 0-1 record to show for it. He has a 2.19 ERA in 12.1 innings with nine strikeouts. During the regular season, Wheeler was 12-7 with a 2.82 ERA and Snell was 8-10 with a 3.38 ERA.

The game three probable pitchers are Joe Musgrove for the Padres and Ranger Suarez for the Phillies. Musgrove had potentially the best starting outing for any N.L. hurler thus far in the postseason in the Wild Card round against the high-powered offense of the Mets holding them to one hit over seven scoreless innings. In two starts this postseason he’s 1-0 with a 1.38 ERA and 13 strikeouts in 13 innings. Suarez has made one start this postseason in the NLDS against the Braves and he didn’t stick around too long only going 3.1 innings. He’s ineffectiveness when it came to allowing walks (five in just those 3.1 innings) did him in, though he did pitch out of a couple of big jams before doing so. During the regular season, Musgrove was 10-7 with a 2.93 ERA and Suarez was 10-7 with a 3.65 ERA.

In a best-of-7 series, teams are usually going to want to have a fourth starter. But neither team has really gotten to the point in this postseason. The Phillies have veteran Noah Syndergaard whom they may use, though he’s come out of the bullpen so far this postseason. I’m not sure whom the Padres would run out for a game four start. There’s a possibility game four could be a bullpen game for either team.

The Phillies have a slight pitching advantage in the first two games of the series, but I like that the Padres have a definite advantage in game three. I wouldn’t be shocked if the Phillies had a 2-1 series lead after three games, but I’m still going to give San Diego the rotation advantage because overall they have the better starters.

Advantage: Padres

Bullpen:

I might be a bit affected when it comes to my bullpen analysis because I had the opportunity to see more Phillies games so far during this postseason than I have Padres games and the Phillies bullpen has been absolutely lights out, even though they don’t have a traditional closer.

Seranthony Dominguez has been the best arm out of the Phillies bullpen this postseason with a perfect ERA and whopping eight strikeouts in 3.2 innings. Jose Alvarado and Zac Eflin have been the most used arms out of the pen for Philly, though both have fairly high ERAs in a combined 9.1 innings. Each reliever has five Ks. Brad Hand and Andrew Bellatti have each given the team 2.2 innings this postseason with three Ks. It’s possible the Phillies could have David Robertson, their best case for a closer, back in the NLCS after missing the NLDS with a calf injury. The Phillies may also use veteran Noah Syndergaard out of the pen, but I expect he’ll likely be the game four starter.

Josh Hader has been dominant closing games for the Padres this postseason, which is what they acquired him for from the Milwaukee Brewers before the trade deadline, despite being shaky for much of the second half of the season after his acquisition. He’s yet to allow a run in 4.1 innings and has three saves and seven strikeouts. Robert Suarez has been the most used hand out of the pen for San Diego with five postseason appearances with a perfect ERA and 5 Ks over six innings pitched. Nick Martinez has hurled five innings for the Padres this postseason with a 1.80 ERA and three strikeouts. Steven Wilson has appeared in three games with a 3.38 ERA in 2.2 innings.

Having seen the Phillies more, I knew their bullpen had been good, but honestly looking at the Padres numbers, especially when it comes to the dominance Hader and Robert Suarez have shown they have the advantage here.

Advantage: Padres

Catcher:

J.T. Realmuto is likely the best catcher in the National League. Offensively he’s strong and defensively you absolutely cannot run on his arm. He’s hitting .250 this postseason with two RBI and his inside-the-park home run against the Braves in the NLDS was one of the most thrilling plays of the postseason thus far. During the regular season, Realmuto hit .276 with 22 homers and 84 RBI.

One of the most interesting moments of the NLCS is certainly going to be in game two when Padres catcher Austin Nola steps into the batter’s box to face his younger brother, Aaron, pitching for the Phillies.

Nola has been hot at the plate for the Padres this postseason tied for the team lead in batting average at .381. He’s driven in four runs thus far during these playoffs. During the regular season, Nola hit .251 with four home runs and 40 RBI.

Advantage: Phillies

First Base:

Rhys Hoskins mans first base for the Phillies, though I think many fans would prefer a move back to the outfield or to designated hitter next year if Bryce Harper gets healthy due to his sometimes shoddy defense. Hoskins’ bat is not usually a liability, though it has been this postseason. Hoskins is only hitting .154 this postseason with a homer and four RBI. He hit .246 with 30 homers and 79 RBI during the season.

The Padres have been platooning Brandon Drury and Wil Myers at first base this postseason. Drury typically has been the team’s DH when not at first. Neither player has hit a lick for the team thus far with Myers sporting a .087 average and Drury a .066 average. Drury definitely has pop in his bat with 28 homers during the season.

Advantage: Phillies

Second Base:

Veteran second baseman Jean Segura had played in the most regular season games of any active MLB player without reaching the postseason before doing so this year with the Phillies and you can tell he was ready for some playoff action as he’s had a hot bat with a .389 average thus far to go along with three RBI. During the season he hit .277 with 10 homers and 33 RBI.

Padres two-bagger Jake Cronenworth is one of the best hitting second basemen in the league. He hit .240 this season with 17 home runs and 88 RBI. This postseason Cronenworth has hit .241 with a homer and tied for the team’s lead (with three other players) with 5 RBI.

Segura has had the better postseason thus far, but Cronenworth is the player more likely to impact the series.

Advantage: Padres

Third Base:

This one frankly won’t even be close. There’s a good possibility that Padres third baseman Manny Machado wins the National League Most Valuable Player this honor after hitting .298 with 32 home runs and 102 RBI and compiling a 6.8 WAR, while also playing solid defense. Machado is one of the previously mentioned four Padres with a team-leading five RBI this postseason. He’s hitting .296 with two homers through two playoff rounds this year.

The Phillies have Alec Bohm at third base, and he’s been one of the bats scuffling in their lineup with a .200 average over the first two series (though that’s only six games). He’s driven in three runs this postseason. For the regular season, Bohm hit .280 with 13 homers and 72 RBI.

Advantage: Padres

Shortstop:

Ha-Seong Kim wasn’t supposed to be the Padres starting shortstop this season but has manned the position admirably in the absence of the selfish Fernando Tatis Jr., the superstar who missed the entire season due to an injury he occurred during a motorcycle accident and suspension for performance-enhancing drugs. Kim hasn’t hit well this postseason with a .192 average, but he plays solid defense. This season he hit .251 with 11 homers and 59 RBI.

Rooke Bryson Stott is the Phillies shortstop, and he hasn’t done much this postseason either hitting .133 with two RBI. This season Stott hit .234 with 10 homers and 49 RBI.

The biggest noticeable difference between Kim and Stott is Kim had a 4.9 WAR this season compared to 1.3 for Stott, which is good enough for me to give San Diego the positional advantage here.

Advantage: Padres

Outfield:

The Padres have one of the best players in all of baseball Juan Soto out in right field. Trent Grisham has been one of the stars of the postseason thus far for San Diego out in center field. Jurickson Profar mans left field for the team.

Grisham is tied with Bryce Harper of the Phillies for most home runs thus far in the National League playoffs with three. He’s tied for the team lead with five postseason RBI and tied with Austin Nola for a team-leading .381 average. Soto is hitting .250 this postseason with three RBI but could pop off at any given time. Profar also has five RBI this postseason for San Diego, while hitting .280.

For the regular season, Grisham hit almost 200 points worse than he is this postseason with 17 homers and 53 RBI. Soto hit .242 with 27 homers and 62 RBI in a down year for him split between Washington and San Diego. Profar hit .243 this season with 15 homers and 58 RBI.

The Phillies have two boppers in their outfield with National League home run champion Kyle Schwarber, who hit 46 bombs this season, in left field and Nick Castellanos in right field. The team has been platooning Brandon Marsh and Matt Vierling in center.

Despite his league-leading home run total, Schwarber has been an absolute disappearing act for the Phillies this postseason with zero homers and a disgusting .050 average. Castellanos has been one of the team’s better bats this postseason, even with an average as low as .217. He has five RBI this postseason, second on the team to Harper’s six. Marsh has four RBI this postseason, three of which came off one blast against the Braves in the previous round.

Schwarber and Castellanos are scary bats. If they can click the Phillies might take the advantage here, but as of right now I’m taking Soto and the hot bat of Grisham for the advantage.

Advantage: Padres

Designated Hitter:

This one isn’t close. Bryce Harper is the bat the Phillies are going to have to ride or die with in the NLCS and he’s been their hottest hitter thus far in the postseason with three bombs, six RBI and an average of .435, leading the team in all of those categories. It’s starting to look like he’s come around off his fractured thumb injury that cost him about two months of the season just in time for the most important stretch of the year.

The Padres have been using Josh Bell and Brandon Drury at DH. Bell seemed to play more in the series against the Mets and Drury more in the series against the Dodgers. Neither is hitting very well this postseason with Bell having a slight advantage. Both, however, are capable of hitting the ball a long way.

Advantage: Phillies

Prediction: Padres in 7 games

by Julian Spivey
Three of the four Major League Baseball Division Series matchups feature teams within the same division, which could lead to some extremely fun and tense series with all of the familiarity between these teams. 
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New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians

Let’s start with the one matchup that isn’t been inner-division foes. That would be the American League East Division champion New York Yankees against the A.L. Central Division champion Cleveland Guardians, who reached the ALDS via their Wild Card series win against the Tampa Bay Rays.

The two teams are almost the exact opposite of each other. The Yankees are a high-powered offense, led by center fielder Aaron Judge who had one of the greatest offensive seasons in baseball history, which depends heavily on the long- ball and the Guardians hit the second-fewest homers this season in baseball and play an old-school type of game featuring small ball and speed.

What the Guardians do have is strong pitching, as Shane Bieber and Triston McKenzie showed in the ALWS against the Rays, allowing one run over two games. They’ll certainly have a harder time against the Yankees offense. Cal Quantrill will take the mound first for the Guardians (he would’ve been the game three started in the ALWS if necessary) and he had a stellar season going 15-5 with a 3.38 ERA for Cleveland. You could argue Quantrill had a better season than the Yankees ace Gerrit Cole pitching in game one. Cole went 13-8 with a 3.50 ERA this season. Cole did lead the major with 257 strikeouts though.

Bieber, the 2020 A.L. Cy Young winner, will take the mound in game two for Cleveland and probably has the advantage of the Yankees No. 2 pitcher Nestor Cortes, even though Cortes was an All-Star this season and a strong 12-4 record with a 2.44 ERA.

If the Guardians could figure out a way to take the first two games in New York they will win the series, but I think the Yankees offense will be too much to contend with in at least one of those games. I do think there’s a good chance this is a five-game series.

Game three’s pitching matchup would see McKenzie for the Guardians and Luis Severino for the Yanks. McKenzie had a solid season for the Guardians and Severino went 7-3 with a 3.18 in only 19 starts after missing a lot of the season due to injury.

The fun of this series is going to be seeing whether the Guardians stellar top three pitchers in their rotation can keep the runs column low for the Yankees. Ultimately, I think the Yankees will score just enough runs to get by Cleveland in this series, but this could be closer and more surprising of a series than many people think.

That being said, the regular season matchup between these two teams was not close with the Yankees winning five of the six matchups and outscoring the Guardians by 24 runs. The teams haven’t matched up since the first week of July, so the Guardians may well be a different team at this point in the season.

Game one of this series begins today at 6:30 p.m. Game two will be Thursday, Oct. 13 at 6:30 p.m. Game three will be Saturday, Oct. 15 time to be determined later and games four and five if necessary would be Sunday, Oct. 16 and Monday, Oct. 17. All games of this series will be broadcast on TBS.

Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners

The Houston Astros and Seattle Mariners are very familiar with one another playing in the American League West Division. The Astros were the division winners this season going 106-56. The Mariners were one of the league’s three Wild Cards going 90-72 and finishing 16 games behind the Astros during the season.

So, the Astros are obviously the better team when you compare the two for the entire season, but the better team all season long doesn’t always win every playoff series.

The Astros position-by-position are better at most positions, with the exception of center fielder (Mariners probable Rookie of the Year winner Julio Rodriguez mans that position), first base (with Ty France having a better season than Yuli Gurriel) and catcher (though Cal Raleigh is only better offensively than Astros backstop Martin Maldonado). The M’s probably have the better bullpen too.

The Mariners rotation was certainly made better when the team acquired Luis Castillo from the Cincinnati Reds before the trade deadline and the pitching matchups will be the highlight of this series with Justin Verlander, the probably 2022 A.L. Cy Young winner, going against Logan Gilbert, the M’s young gun who went 13-6 with a 3.20 ERA in his first full season in the bigs. The big question mark with this matchup is you know Verlander, a former World Series champion, won’t be bothered by the big game situation, but this is Gilbert’s postseason debut.

Game two could be the best overall matchup of the series with Castillo taking the mound for Seattle and Framber Valdez, a quality start machine, going for the Astros. Castillo was 8-6 with a 2.99 ERA this season. Valdez was 17-6 with a 2.82 ERA.

Robbie Ray, the reigning A.L. Cy Young winner, will take the mound in game three against the Mariners most likely against Lance McCullers Jr. for the Astros. Ray didn’t quite have his Cy Young stuff in his first season with Seattle, but a 3.71 ERA isn’t too shabby. McCullers, coming off an injury, only got eight starts in late this season, but looked solid going 4-2 with a strong 2.27 ERA.

The Astros do have more rotational depth if the series goes longer than three games, which it probably will, with Luis Garcia and Jose Urquidy, but the Mariners also have rookie starter George Kirby as a possibility, and he looks like a stud.

Ultimately, what this series could come down to is veterans vs. newbies. The Astros have been here year after year and some of these guys remain from the 2017 World Series championship team. The Mariners are all mostly new to this. I think the experience for the Astros along with them having the better offense will make the difference.

The Astros were 11-6 against the Mariners this season.

Game one of the series is today at 2:30 p.m. Game two will be Thursday, Oct. at 2:30 p.m. Game three will be Saturday, Oct. 15 with a time to be determined. If necessary games four and five will be Sunday, Oct. 16 and Monday, Oct. 17. All games of this series will be broadcast on TBS.

Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies

The National League East Division champion Atlanta Braves will be taking on their inner-division foe Philadelphia Phillies in the National League Division Series. The Phillies finished third in the N.L. East this season and clinched the third Wild Card position in the league.

The Braves finished the season 14 games ahead of the Phillies, but this current Phillies squad isn’t necessarily the same team it was most of the season. Phillies star outfielder Bryce Harper missed a good portion of the season due to injury and after the Phillies fired Joe Girardi as their manager and replaced him with Rob Thomson a fire was lit underneath them. The Phillies also made the Wild Card Series against the N.L. Central Division winning St. Louis Cardinals look rather easy.

This is all to say the reigning champion Braves better take the Phillies seriously.

The Braves have the better pitching staff of these two teams, which I believe will ultimately be the difference in this series. But Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola looked mighty good for Philly against the Cardinals. When it comes to the offenses the teams are fairly even. The Braves are better at first base with Matt Olson over Rhys Hoskins, the Braves are better at shortstop with Dansby Swanson over Bryson Stott and Austin Riley over Alec Bohm. Rookie Michael Harris has been a revelation for the Braves this season and has the center field advantage over Brandon Marsh. Right field could be a toss-up. Ronald Acuna Jr. is more talented than Nick Castellanos, but we’ll see what happens.

The Phillies are better in left field with power-hitting Kyle Schwarber over the platoon of Marcell Ozuna and Eddie Rosario. Philadelphia has maybe the best catcher in the N.L. with J.T. Realmuto over Travis d’Arnaud and the best hitter in the entire series could be Phillies designated hitter Bryce Harper.

The game one pitching matchup will see Braves ace Max Fried, who went 14-7 with a 2.48 ERA, take the mound against Ranger Suarez for the Phillies. Suarez is the Phillies No. 3 starter, but Wheeler and Nola pitched in the NLWS. Suarez was 10-7 with a 3.65 ERA this year. The Braves have the advantage here.

Game two will see Kyle Wright, baseball’s winningest pitcher in 2022 with a 21-5 record and 3.19 ERA, probably go against Wheeler, who got the game one start in the NLWS against St. Louis. Wheeler was 12-7 with a 2.82 ERA this season but isn’t too far removed from a stint on the injured list and the Phillies seem to be reluctant to stretch him out too far since then.

Game three would see Braves veteran Charlie Morton, who went 9-6 with a 4.34 ERA this season, take on Phillies ace Nola, who was 11-13 with a 3.25 ERA this season. Despite the losing record on the year the Phillies likely have the advantage here with Nola, who was lights out against the Cardinals.

A potential game four could see Braves rookie flamethrower Spencer Strider, who finished the season on the I.L., against Phillies veteran Noah Syndergaard, but plans might change.

The Braves were 11-8 against the Phillies this season. For what it's worth the Braves have had a helluva time winning day games this year finishing under .500 in day games and it's likely all games of this series will be played during the day. 

Game one of the series is today at noon on Fox. Game two will be tomorrow at 3:30 p.m. on Fox. Game three will be Friday, Oct. 14 with a time to be determined on Fox Sports 1. If necessary games four and five will be Saturday, Oct. 15 and Sunday, Oct. 16 both on FS1.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres

The National League West Division champion Los Angeles Dodgers will take on their inner-division rival San Diego Padres in the NLDS.

The Dodgers were the best team in baseball all season long winning 111 games to only 51 losses. That was an incredible 22 more wins than the Padres. But the Padres kind of shocked the baseball world by beating the 101-win New York Mets in the NLWS over the weekend.

I still think it’s too much to ask to think the Padres can topple the Dodgers. This Dodgers roster has the chance to be one of the greatest champions of all time if they can go all the way through the postseason and win the title.

When it comes to the offenses the Dodgers are probably better at catcher (Will Smith over Austin Nola), first base (Freddie Freeman over Brandon Drury/Wil Myers) and shortstop (Trea Turner over Ha-Seong Kim). The Dodgers probably have a slim advantage at right field with Mookie Betts over Juan Soto, but if Soto gets hot he could be the best player in the entire series (or even postseason).

The Padres likely have the advantages at second base (Jake Cronenworth over Gavin Lux), center field (Trent Grisham over Cody Bellinger) and left field (Jurickson Profar over Trayce Thompson/Joey Gallo).

I’ll give the designated hitter spot a toss-up between Max Muncy for L.A. and Josh Bell for the Padres. Bell was hot in the NLWS against the Mets though.

The Dodgers have the advantage when it comes to both starting pitcher and the bullpen, but they’re also missing their ace Walker Buehler, who was injured in the second half of the season and out for the rest of the season. Still, Julio Urias, who will start game one of the series, will likely garner some N.L. Cy Young votes as he went 17-7 with a league-leading 2.16 ERA. Mike Clevinger, the Padres No. 4 starting pitcher, will gerget the nod in the first game because of the team using their top three guys against the Mets. Clevinger went 7-7 with a 4.33 ERA this season. MassiveA massive advantage in game one for the Dodgers.
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Game two will see the future hall of famer Clayton Kershaw take the mound for the Dodgers. Kershaw had yet another stellar season for his HOF resume going 12-3 with a 2.28 ERA. He’ll face Padres ace Yu Darvish who went 16-8 with a 3.10 ERA. Kershaw has had some postseason issues in his career, but it feels like those struggles are mostly behind him.

Game three pitchers are kind of up in the air right now. The Dodgers could run out Tony Gonsolin or Tyler Anderson. The Padres have a decision between veterans Blake Snell and Joe Musgrove. Snell is technically in line, but with the way Musgrove dominated the Mets in the NLWS clincher on Sunday night, the Padres might need him to go out first depending on what happens in the first two games of the series.

I’ll give the Padres one win in this series, but this is the series least likely to go the distance.

The Dodgers were 14-5 this season against the Padres. 

Game one of the series begins today at 8:30 p.m. Game two will be tomorrow at 7:30 p.m. Game three will be on Friday, Oct. 14 with the time to be determined. If necessary, games four and five will be Saturday, Oct. 15 and Sunday, Oct. 16. All of the games of this series will be broadcast on Fox Sports 1.

by Julian Spivey
New York Mets manager Buck Showalter having the umpires check San Diego Padres pitcher Joe Musgrove for illegal substances at the beginning of the bottom of the sixth inning on Sunday night (Oct. 9) in the pivotal game three of the National League Wild Card Series was the most unsportsmanlike thing I can remember ever seeing from a coach of a pro sports team on such a big stage.

Showalter’s hitters had nothing for Musgrove on Sunday night only wracking up one measly hit in the first five innings off him before Showalter’s stunt. After the stunt they wouldn’t get a hit of Musgrove over his next two innings, nor a hit of Padres relievers Robert Suarez and Josh Hader after he left the game. The Mets laid a giant goose egg in the runs column of the scoreboard in their biggest game of the season despite winning 101 games in the regular season. They would lose the game 6-0 and the series 2-1 and have begun their off-season earlier than many expected.

When Showalter realized his hitters had nothing for Musgrove he decided to try to take matters into his own hand by asking the umpires to convene and check the pitcher for illegal substances that might help improve the spin rate of the ball and make it harder for batters to hit.

Spin rates and illegal, sticky substances were a major concern in Major League Baseball in the opening months of the 2021 season but haven’t been much of a deal since the league instituted checks for every pitcher at least once per game (starting pitchers may be subjected to multiple checks). Musgrove had already been checked at least once during game three of the series by umpires prior to Showalter’s accusation of cheating – which is exactly what the stunt amounts to even if the Mets manager was merely trying to get into the pitcher’s head in hopes it would lead to struggles on the mound.

The umpires, led by crew chief Alfonso Marquez, approached Musgrove on the mound and checked his palm, his cap, and his glove and even ran their fingers around the inside and outside the lobes of his ears

ESPN broadcaster Eduardo Perez called Showalter’s stunt “gamesmanship,” but let’s face it was actually unsportsmanlike. The players should be deciding games, especially the most important ones on the field, not by senior citizens coming onto the field in their warmups trying to get in the heads of the opponent by accusing them of cheating.

What Showalter did would’ve been more of a fair thing prior to the league instituting these checks last season. Also, he could’ve approached the umpires about it during the inning break, but for some reason – maybe for dramatic effect or maybe because he wanted to be in the spotlight – he waited until the bottom half of the inning was about to get underway.

There needs to be some sort of repercussion for a manager pulling such a stunt, especially on such an important stage. If Musgrove had been found to have had or been covered in an illegal substance he would’ve been immediately ejected from the ballgame (he would’ve also been given a suspension). Since he was found to be clean I believe Showalter should’ve been ejected from the ballgame.

To Musgrove and the Padres’ credit, the stunt didn’t work. Musgrove seemed more determined than ever over his final two innings and even gave a mocking gesture of rubbing a finger under his nostrils following a strikeout in the sixth inning.

 
The Major League Baseball expanded postseason gets underway today with game one of all four Wild Card series that will be a best-of-three series and take place over the weekend. The series features the three Wild Card teams from each league, plus the division winner with the worst record (which was the Central Division winner for both leagues this season). The two best records in each league (Houston Astros and New York Yankees in the American League and Los Angeles Dodgers and Atlanta Braves in the National League) received byes into the Division Series.
All four Wild Card series should be exciting, but let’s figure out which teams have the best chance at continuing and which ones are probably going home for the winter.
 
Tampa Bay Rays @ Cleveland Guardians on ESPN @ 11 a.m. CST
The Cleveland Guardians (the A.L. Central Division winners) and the Tampa Bay Rays (the third A.L. Wild Card) are probably the two teams in the postseason with the least-known household names, but it could be an old-school fan’s wish with both teams relying on pitching, defense and small ball. Neither team hits many long balls. In a short series the team with the best pitching is usually the team to beat and that gives the Guardians the advantage, but whoever wins the extremely important game one (as winning the first two games clinches the series) might just win this series and the Rays have their American League All-Star starting pitcher from this season Shane McClanahan going against Guardians ace (and former Cy Young winner) Shane Bieber. McClanahan went 12-8 this year with a 2.54 ERA, which was fifth in the A.L. Bieber was 13-8 with a 2.88 ERA that was good enough for seventh in the league. This will be one of the best pitching matchups of the entire postseason and it’s the very first game of it. Game two will feature Tyler Glasnow for the Rays who just made his season debut at the end of the season after returning from Tommy John surgery and only got 6.2 innings under his belt against Triston McKenzie, who went 11-11 with an impressive 2.96 ERA on the season. Cal Quantrill would pitch game three for Cleveland if necessary with the Rays probably going with a bullpen game, something they’re more accustomed to doing than any other team in baseball. The best offensive player on either team is Guardians third baseman Jose Ramirez, who might be looking at another top-five finish in A.L. MVP voting. It should be a close series and could be decided by how long Glasnow can go in game two and what kind of stuff he brings, but I’m leaning toward the home-team Guardians taking this series and facing the New York Yankees in the A.L. Division Series.
 
Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals on ABC @ 1 p.m. CST
The St. Louis Cardinals won the National League Central Division rather easily down the stretch and the Philadelphia Phillies kind of took the final N.L. Wild Card from a slumping Milwaukee Brewers team, but I think this series could be closer than people think it will be and that’s mostly because the Phils have a better rotation. The Cardinals probably have the better overall offense, but the offense the Phillies do have can be scary with Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, J.T. Realmuto and Nick Castellanos. I have to think the Phillies have the advantage in game one with Zack Wheeler taking the mound against Jose Quintana, who is a bit of a surprising choice for me from the Cards. Wheeler was 12-7 this season with a 2.82 ERA but is only a couple of late-season starts away from an injured list trip. Quintana was 6-7 this season with a 2.93 ERA, but his numbers since joining the Cards at the trade deadline are a much improved 2.01 ERA. The game two probable pitchers are Aaron Nola for the Phillies and Miles Mikolas for the Cardinals. Nola actually had a losing record for Philly this year going 11-13, but his 3.25 ERA was his best since 2018. Mikolas also had a losing record this year at 12-13 with an ERA of 3.29. I assume the Cardinals would start veteran Adam Wainwright in game three in what could be his final career start with Jordan Montgomery ready to piggyback. The Phillies have Ranger Suarez lined up, who went 10-7 with a 3.65 ERA this year. I’m shocked the Cards don’t want to five Wainwright in game two of the series just based on his experience and knowing he won’t let a big moment get to him. If this series goes a third game I think the advantage would switch to St. Louis. I just can’t see the Cardinals losing both games one and two, so I think they’ll find a way to pull out the series and reach the National League Division Series against the Atlanta Braves.
 
Seattle Mariners @ Toronto Blue Jays on ESPN @ 4 p.m. CST
The Toronto Blues Jays, the A.L.’s first Wild Card, versus the Seattle Mariners (making their first postseason appearance in 20 years), the A.L.’s second Wild Card, has the makings of being the most exciting Wild Card round series. The Blue Jays have one of the game’s most fun and high-scoring offenses and the Mariners are hungry led by probable A.L. Rookie of the Year winner Julio Rodriguez. The test of this series will be can good pitching slow down a high-powered offense. The Mariners have both the better rotation and bullpen, but the Jays are better at almost every position, except for center field and third base. The Mariners acquired pitcher Luis Castillo from the Cincinnati Reds at the trade deadline, and he’s been lights out for them since going 4-2 with a 3.17 ERA for the team in 11 starts. The Jays have their All-Star ace Alek Manoah on the mound in game one and he was 16-7 this season with a 2.24 ERA, which was third in the A.L. Game two would feature 2021 Cy Young winner Robbie Ray on the mound for Seattle (he won that Cy Young with Toronto) against likely Kevin Gausman. Ray wasn’t his Cy Young self this year, but a 3.71 ERA isn’t bad. Gausman, who replaced Ray in Toronto’s rotation, was even better going 12-10 with a 3.35 ERA. If the Blue Jays want to win this series they need to take the first two games for the sweep because Mariners No. 3 pitcher Logan Gilbert is better than whomever the Jays would likely send out to the mound in game three. This should be the closest of all four MLB Wild Card Series and I’m leaning toward Seattle winning it and taking on their A.L. West Division rival Houston Astros in the Division Series.
 
San Diego Padres @ New York Mets on ESPN @ 7 p.m. CST
The New York Mets are clearly the best team in the Wild Card series round with a 101-61 season record, which is eight games better than the next closest team in the round. The only reason they didn’t receive a bye is that lost the National League East Division to the Braves via a tiebreaker. The Mets won 12 more games than the Padres did this year, so they should be fairly heavy favorites, especially with Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom taking the mound in games one and two of the series, but I wouldn’t completely count out a Padres offense that includes Juan Soto and Manny Machado. The only way for the Padres to really have a shot at reaching the Division Series to play their N.L. West rival Los Angeles Dodgers would be for Yu Darvish and Blake Snell to out-duel Scherzer and deGrom. It’s certainly possible, but unlikely.