World Series Preview: Astros or Phillies

by Julian Spivey
The 2022 World Series between the Houston Astros and the Philadelphia Phillies might seem like David vs. Goliath based on the season records of the teams with the 106-56 Astros taking on the role of Goliath and the 87-69 Phillies being the underdog. But the way the Phillies have been playing this offseason it might not be such a shock if David beat Goliath. I’m just not sure I’m predicting it to happen.

Let’s break down the team’s position by position.

Rotation:
Both the Astros and Phillies have had four full days off between the League Championship Series and the World Series, so both teams should have their rotations set up the way they’d want them to be. Because of that, we should have about as equal a World Series as we can with each team’s best matching head-to-head. Still, one team has a rather large advantage when it comes to the quantity of solid arms and that’s the Astros. The Astros actually haven’t named their game-one starter (as of the time of this writing), but I imagine it’ll be American League Cy Young front-runner Justin Verlander. Following Verlander will likely be Framber Valdez, who has been a quality start machine for the Astros, in game two. Games three and four will likely be some combination of Cristian Javier and Lance McCullers Jr.

Verlander has made two starts for the Astros this postseason going 1-0 with 14 strikeouts and a 6.30 ERA that was inflated by an atypically bad start (maybe his worst of the entire season) against the Seattle Mariners in the American League Division Series. Valdez is 1-0 with 15 strikeouts and a 1.42 ERA in a team-leading 15.2 innings pitcher this postseason. McCullers has started two games for the Astros this postseason with a 2.45 ERA and 13 strikeouts in 11 innings. Javier’s one playoff start came in the A.L.C.S. against the Yankees in which he went 5.1 innings of one-hit, shutout ball.

Aaron Nola is slated for game one for the Phillies. His first two postseason starts against the St. Louis Cardinals and Atlanta Braves were near-perfect, but he struggled a bit in his N.L.C.S. start against the San Diego Padres. He’s 2-1 this postseason with a 3.12 ERA and 18 strikeouts in 17.1 innings. Zack Wheeler will likely take the mound in game two for Philly. His four starts this postseason are the most on the team and he’s 1-1 with 25 strikeouts and a 1.78 ERA in 25.1 innings. Ranger Suarez is Philadelphia’s third starter with two starts this postseason – one each in the N.L.D.S. against the Braves and N.L.C.S. against the Padres. Suarez is 1-0 this postseason with a 2.00 ERA and eight strikeouts in nine innings. He also recorded a save in the N.L.D.S. If the Phillies opt for a fourth starting pitcher in the World Series instead of a bullpen game it’ll likely be veteran Noah Syndergaard on the mound. He’s made three appearances this postseason with only one being a start. In 5.1 innings pitched he has a 1.69 ERA with four strikeouts.

I think Nola and Wheeler can hang with the best the Astros have, but the fact the Astros have four solid starters to go (and honestly two more in the bullpen in Luis Garcia and Jose Urquidy) they have the advantage with their depth.

Advantage: Astros

Bullpen:
Four of the Astros seven playoff wins thus far have come from their bullpen stepping up big late in games. The four guys getting the bulk of the innings for Houston’s pen have been closer Ryan Pressly (0.00 ERA with four saves and eight strikeouts in 5.1 innings), Bryan Abreu (0.00 ERA with 10 strikeouts in 6.1 innings), Rafael Montero (1.69 ERA with six strikeouts in 5.1 innings) and Hector Neris (2.25 ERA with five strikeouts in four innings).

Jose Alvarado has been the most used arm for the Phillies this postseason getting into eight of the team’s 10 games. Alvarado has a 3.38 ERA in eight innings with nine strikeouts. Seranthony Dominguez has been a strikeout machine for the Phillies out of the pen with 15 in just 7.2 innings pitched. He has an ERA of 1.17 and has been the team’s most effective reliever. Zac Eflin has appeared in six games this postseason with a rather high 5.68 ERA in 6.1 innings. David Robertson, who was the team’s closer this season, has only appeared in four games so far this postseason due to missing the N.L.D.S. due to injury. Robertson has pitched 3.2 innings with six strikeouts and a 2.45 ERA. The Phillies have gotten four saves this postseason with four pitchers each getting one (Alvarado, Dominguez, Eflin and Ranger Suarez).

Advantage: Astros

Catcher:
As I mentioned in my A.L.D.S. and A.L.C.S. previews the Astros intentionally give up offensive production at the catcher position because the team loves the way Martin Maldonado handles its impressive pitching staff. If the Astros wanted more offensive production from the position they’d give Christian Vazquez, whom they acquired prior to the trade deadline from the Red Sox. Maldonado is a meek hitter with a .214 average and one RBI this postseason. Vazquez has only appeared in three of the Astros seven postseason games and is 2-for-10 at the plate.

The Phillies, on the other hand, have maybe the best complete catcher in baseball when compiling offensive and defensive numbers. J.T. Realmuto is nearly impossible to run on and is one of the best offensive catchers in the game. Realmuto is hitting .244 this postseason with two homers (one of which was an inside-the-parker) and three RBI. There’s probably more distance between Realmuto and the Astros catchers than any other position in this series.

Advantage: Phillies

First Base:
Astros first baseman Yuli Gurriel was the American League batting champion in 2021 and absolutely fell off the table this season hitting nearly 80 points less. However, Gurriel has turned things around in the postseason and leads the team with a .367 average. He has two homers and three RBI to go along with it.

Rhys Hoskins has been an interesting case for the Phillies this postseason. His average is just .182, but he’s found his power stroke co-leading the team with five home runs and 11 RBI. Five of his eight hits this postseason have left the yard.

This one’s hard for me. Gurriel seems more likely to get on base, but Hoskins’ power stroke right now seems more likely to have a bigger impact on the series with the ability to put up crooked numbers with one swing. I’m going to give the advantage to Gurriel because he’s been getting on base more often and setting the table for the other great hitters in Houston’s lineup.

Advantage: Astros

Second Base:
Jose Altuve has been the best second baseman in Major League Baseball over the last decade but has been surprisingly and uncharacteristically cold this postseason at the plate. Altuve opened the playoffs with a historically bad hitless streak and has a .094 average without driving in any runs. He’s also struck out a team-leading 11 times this postseason.

Jean Segura had played the most games of any player in MLB without a postseason appearance prior to the Phillies Cinderella run this October. He’s been solid for Philly hitting .257 with five RBI.

I know Altuve is the better player of these two and that he has the potential to get hot and be more of a game-changer than Segura, but I’ve got to ride the hotter player right now and that simply isn’t Altuve.

Advantage: Phillies

Third Base:
Alex Bregman was a back-to-back All-Star in 2018 and 2019 but has had some injury problems and struggles since then. He has been one of the Astros hottest hitters this postseason with a .333 average, two homers and seven RBI.

Bregman’s counterpart on the Phillies, Alec Bohm, hasn’t done a whole lot at the plate this postseason hitting just .189 with five RBI.

Advantage: Astros

Shortstop:
In what might be a World Series first both teams feature rookie shortstops. It’s been a tale of two stories for those shortstops this postseason, though. The Astros 25-year old rookie Jeremy Pena has been one of the club’s hottest hitters with a team-leading three home runs to go along with five RBI and a .303 average (third highest on the team). Bryson Stott, the Phillies’ 25-year-old shortstop, has hit .200 with three RBI.

Advantage: Astros

Outfield:
There is an awful lot of pop at the corners of the outfield for both of these teams. Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker were the Astros two-leading home run hitters this season and Kyle Schwarber led the National League in homers with 46 this season and despite a down year Nicholas Castellanos is always capable of changing a game with just one swing. Both teams have lighter-hitting center fielders mostly in the lineup for their defense with Chas McCormick for Houston and Brandon Marsh for Philadelphia.

Alvarez has hit two big-time homers for the Astros this postseason and leads the team with eight RBI and sports a .241 average. Tucker hasn’t been hitting so well this postseason with a .214 average and one solo homer. McCormick has two homers and three RBI this postseason to go along with a .250 average.

Schwarber was pretty much dormant for the Phillies in the N.L.W.C. and N.L.D.S. but came alive in the N.L.C.S. against the San Diego Padres. Schwarber has three homers and six RBI this postseason while hitting .200. Castellanos hasn’t done a whole lot this postseason with a .220 average and six RBI. Marsh is hitting a measly .154 with a homer and four RBI (three of which came on the homer).

It’s a pretty close matchup between the outfielders, but I’ll take the playoff experience of the Astros here.

Advantage: Astros

Designated Hitter:
With all apologies to Trey Mancini of the Astros, who’s just an all-around great story having come back from cancer to now reach the World Series, but this matchup isn’t close at all. Bryce Harper has been the best hitter this entire postseason for any team. He leads the Phillies in all three Triple Crown categories this postseason with a .419 average, five homers and 11 RBI. He has 11 extra-base hits this postseason on his tear. He is the single scariest hitter in the World Series.

Mancini hasn’t done anything for Houston this postseason. He’s 0-for-12 with four strikeouts. The Astros might opt to start Alvarez at DH and play Aledmys Diaz in the outfield at some points in the series.

Advantage: Phillies

Prediction: Astros in 6 games 

---

World Series Schedule:

All games at 7 p.m. CST on Fox

Game 1 – Friday, Oct. 28
Game 2 – Saturday, Oct. 29 
Game 3 – Monday, Oct. 31 
Game 4 – Tuesday, Nov. 1 
*Game 5 – Wednesday, Nov. 2 
*Game 6 – Friday, Nov. 4 
*Game 7 – Saturday, Nov. 5

* if necessary