![]() by Julian Spivey The National League Championship Series between the San Diego Padres and Philadelphia Phillies is the most surprising and unlikely NLCS in Major League Baseball history. It’s the first time there isn’t a division winner among the teams competing for the chance to reach the World Series with the addition of the third Wild Card making it a possibility for the first time in the sport’s history. Despite the fact that few, if any, believed a Padres vs. Phillies NLCS was possible it should be a fun series in that the teams are pretty close, at least on paper. Both teams have high-powered offensive superstars in Manny Machado and Juan Soto for San Diego and Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber for Philadelphia. The pitching staffs are full of ace-caliber pitchers with Yu Darvish, Blake Snell and Joe Musgrove highlighting the Padres’ rotation and Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola taking the mound for Philly. Let’s take a look at the team’s position-by-position and find out which one has the NLCS advantage. Rotation: *Note* The probable starting pitcher for game one for the Phillies is actually Zack Wheeler with Aaron Nola going in game two The rotations for both the Padres and Phillies have been pretty stellar this postseason. Aaron Nola has been the best pitcher on the National League side thus far dominating the St. Louis Cardinals in the National League Wild Card Series and the Atlanta Braves in the National League Division Series and both of those teams sported top-notch offenses. Nola hasn’t allowed a run in 12.2 innings thus far going 2-0 in his two starts with 12 strikeouts. Nola’s game one competitor tonight will be Yu Darvish, who’s also 2-0 this postseason beating the New York Mets in the NLWC and Los Angeles Dodgers in the NLDS, also two high-powered offenses, while compiling a 3.00 ERA in a dozen innings pitched. Darvish has struck out 11 batters this postseason. When it comes to their regular season numbers Darvish had a better record and slightly lower ERA, but Nola strikes out more hitters. The game two probable pitchers for the series are Blake Snell for the Padres, a pitcher with big-time postseason outings before reaching the 2020 World Series with the Tampa Bay Rays, and Zack Wheeler for the Phillies. Snell is 1-0 this postseason beating the Dodgers in the NLDS. He has a 3.12 ERA in 8.2 innings with 11 strikeouts. Snell has been a bit wild this postseason with eight walks in two starts. Wheeler has been the better of these two starters this postseason, despite having a 0-1 record to show for it. He has a 2.19 ERA in 12.1 innings with nine strikeouts. During the regular season, Wheeler was 12-7 with a 2.82 ERA and Snell was 8-10 with a 3.38 ERA. The game three probable pitchers are Joe Musgrove for the Padres and Ranger Suarez for the Phillies. Musgrove had potentially the best starting outing for any N.L. hurler thus far in the postseason in the Wild Card round against the high-powered offense of the Mets holding them to one hit over seven scoreless innings. In two starts this postseason he’s 1-0 with a 1.38 ERA and 13 strikeouts in 13 innings. Suarez has made one start this postseason in the NLDS against the Braves and he didn’t stick around too long only going 3.1 innings. He’s ineffectiveness when it came to allowing walks (five in just those 3.1 innings) did him in, though he did pitch out of a couple of big jams before doing so. During the regular season, Musgrove was 10-7 with a 2.93 ERA and Suarez was 10-7 with a 3.65 ERA. In a best-of-7 series, teams are usually going to want to have a fourth starter. But neither team has really gotten to the point in this postseason. The Phillies have veteran Noah Syndergaard whom they may use, though he’s come out of the bullpen so far this postseason. I’m not sure whom the Padres would run out for a game four start. There’s a possibility game four could be a bullpen game for either team. The Phillies have a slight pitching advantage in the first two games of the series, but I like that the Padres have a definite advantage in game three. I wouldn’t be shocked if the Phillies had a 2-1 series lead after three games, but I’m still going to give San Diego the rotation advantage because overall they have the better starters. Advantage: Padres Bullpen: I might be a bit affected when it comes to my bullpen analysis because I had the opportunity to see more Phillies games so far during this postseason than I have Padres games and the Phillies bullpen has been absolutely lights out, even though they don’t have a traditional closer. Seranthony Dominguez has been the best arm out of the Phillies bullpen this postseason with a perfect ERA and whopping eight strikeouts in 3.2 innings. Jose Alvarado and Zac Eflin have been the most used arms out of the pen for Philly, though both have fairly high ERAs in a combined 9.1 innings. Each reliever has five Ks. Brad Hand and Andrew Bellatti have each given the team 2.2 innings this postseason with three Ks. It’s possible the Phillies could have David Robertson, their best case for a closer, back in the NLCS after missing the NLDS with a calf injury. The Phillies may also use veteran Noah Syndergaard out of the pen, but I expect he’ll likely be the game four starter. Josh Hader has been dominant closing games for the Padres this postseason, which is what they acquired him for from the Milwaukee Brewers before the trade deadline, despite being shaky for much of the second half of the season after his acquisition. He’s yet to allow a run in 4.1 innings and has three saves and seven strikeouts. Robert Suarez has been the most used hand out of the pen for San Diego with five postseason appearances with a perfect ERA and 5 Ks over six innings pitched. Nick Martinez has hurled five innings for the Padres this postseason with a 1.80 ERA and three strikeouts. Steven Wilson has appeared in three games with a 3.38 ERA in 2.2 innings. Having seen the Phillies more, I knew their bullpen had been good, but honestly looking at the Padres numbers, especially when it comes to the dominance Hader and Robert Suarez have shown they have the advantage here. Advantage: Padres Catcher: J.T. Realmuto is likely the best catcher in the National League. Offensively he’s strong and defensively you absolutely cannot run on his arm. He’s hitting .250 this postseason with two RBI and his inside-the-park home run against the Braves in the NLDS was one of the most thrilling plays of the postseason thus far. During the regular season, Realmuto hit .276 with 22 homers and 84 RBI. One of the most interesting moments of the NLCS is certainly going to be in game two when Padres catcher Austin Nola steps into the batter’s box to face his younger brother, Aaron, pitching for the Phillies. Nola has been hot at the plate for the Padres this postseason tied for the team lead in batting average at .381. He’s driven in four runs thus far during these playoffs. During the regular season, Nola hit .251 with four home runs and 40 RBI. Advantage: Phillies First Base: Rhys Hoskins mans first base for the Phillies, though I think many fans would prefer a move back to the outfield or to designated hitter next year if Bryce Harper gets healthy due to his sometimes shoddy defense. Hoskins’ bat is not usually a liability, though it has been this postseason. Hoskins is only hitting .154 this postseason with a homer and four RBI. He hit .246 with 30 homers and 79 RBI during the season. The Padres have been platooning Brandon Drury and Wil Myers at first base this postseason. Drury typically has been the team’s DH when not at first. Neither player has hit a lick for the team thus far with Myers sporting a .087 average and Drury a .066 average. Drury definitely has pop in his bat with 28 homers during the season. Advantage: Phillies Second Base: Veteran second baseman Jean Segura had played in the most regular season games of any active MLB player without reaching the postseason before doing so this year with the Phillies and you can tell he was ready for some playoff action as he’s had a hot bat with a .389 average thus far to go along with three RBI. During the season he hit .277 with 10 homers and 33 RBI. Padres two-bagger Jake Cronenworth is one of the best hitting second basemen in the league. He hit .240 this season with 17 home runs and 88 RBI. This postseason Cronenworth has hit .241 with a homer and tied for the team’s lead (with three other players) with 5 RBI. Segura has had the better postseason thus far, but Cronenworth is the player more likely to impact the series. Advantage: Padres Third Base: This one frankly won’t even be close. There’s a good possibility that Padres third baseman Manny Machado wins the National League Most Valuable Player this honor after hitting .298 with 32 home runs and 102 RBI and compiling a 6.8 WAR, while also playing solid defense. Machado is one of the previously mentioned four Padres with a team-leading five RBI this postseason. He’s hitting .296 with two homers through two playoff rounds this year. The Phillies have Alec Bohm at third base, and he’s been one of the bats scuffling in their lineup with a .200 average over the first two series (though that’s only six games). He’s driven in three runs this postseason. For the regular season, Bohm hit .280 with 13 homers and 72 RBI. Advantage: Padres Shortstop: Ha-Seong Kim wasn’t supposed to be the Padres starting shortstop this season but has manned the position admirably in the absence of the selfish Fernando Tatis Jr., the superstar who missed the entire season due to an injury he occurred during a motorcycle accident and suspension for performance-enhancing drugs. Kim hasn’t hit well this postseason with a .192 average, but he plays solid defense. This season he hit .251 with 11 homers and 59 RBI. Rooke Bryson Stott is the Phillies shortstop, and he hasn’t done much this postseason either hitting .133 with two RBI. This season Stott hit .234 with 10 homers and 49 RBI. The biggest noticeable difference between Kim and Stott is Kim had a 4.9 WAR this season compared to 1.3 for Stott, which is good enough for me to give San Diego the positional advantage here. Advantage: Padres Outfield: The Padres have one of the best players in all of baseball Juan Soto out in right field. Trent Grisham has been one of the stars of the postseason thus far for San Diego out in center field. Jurickson Profar mans left field for the team. Grisham is tied with Bryce Harper of the Phillies for most home runs thus far in the National League playoffs with three. He’s tied for the team lead with five postseason RBI and tied with Austin Nola for a team-leading .381 average. Soto is hitting .250 this postseason with three RBI but could pop off at any given time. Profar also has five RBI this postseason for San Diego, while hitting .280. For the regular season, Grisham hit almost 200 points worse than he is this postseason with 17 homers and 53 RBI. Soto hit .242 with 27 homers and 62 RBI in a down year for him split between Washington and San Diego. Profar hit .243 this season with 15 homers and 58 RBI. The Phillies have two boppers in their outfield with National League home run champion Kyle Schwarber, who hit 46 bombs this season, in left field and Nick Castellanos in right field. The team has been platooning Brandon Marsh and Matt Vierling in center. Despite his league-leading home run total, Schwarber has been an absolute disappearing act for the Phillies this postseason with zero homers and a disgusting .050 average. Castellanos has been one of the team’s better bats this postseason, even with an average as low as .217. He has five RBI this postseason, second on the team to Harper’s six. Marsh has four RBI this postseason, three of which came off one blast against the Braves in the previous round. Schwarber and Castellanos are scary bats. If they can click the Phillies might take the advantage here, but as of right now I’m taking Soto and the hot bat of Grisham for the advantage. Advantage: Padres Designated Hitter: This one isn’t close. Bryce Harper is the bat the Phillies are going to have to ride or die with in the NLCS and he’s been their hottest hitter thus far in the postseason with three bombs, six RBI and an average of .435, leading the team in all of those categories. It’s starting to look like he’s come around off his fractured thumb injury that cost him about two months of the season just in time for the most important stretch of the year. The Padres have been using Josh Bell and Brandon Drury at DH. Bell seemed to play more in the series against the Mets and Drury more in the series against the Dodgers. Neither is hitting very well this postseason with Bell having a slight advantage. Both, however, are capable of hitting the ball a long way. Advantage: Phillies Prediction: Padres in 7 games
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