Previewing the MLB Division Series Matchups

by Julian Spivey
Three of the four Major League Baseball Division Series matchups feature teams within the same division, which could lead to some extremely fun and tense series with all of the familiarity between these teams. 
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New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians

Let’s start with the one matchup that isn’t been inner-division foes. That would be the American League East Division champion New York Yankees against the A.L. Central Division champion Cleveland Guardians, who reached the ALDS via their Wild Card series win against the Tampa Bay Rays.

The two teams are almost the exact opposite of each other. The Yankees are a high-powered offense, led by center fielder Aaron Judge who had one of the greatest offensive seasons in baseball history, which depends heavily on the long- ball and the Guardians hit the second-fewest homers this season in baseball and play an old-school type of game featuring small ball and speed.

What the Guardians do have is strong pitching, as Shane Bieber and Triston McKenzie showed in the ALWS against the Rays, allowing one run over two games. They’ll certainly have a harder time against the Yankees offense. Cal Quantrill will take the mound first for the Guardians (he would’ve been the game three started in the ALWS if necessary) and he had a stellar season going 15-5 with a 3.38 ERA for Cleveland. You could argue Quantrill had a better season than the Yankees ace Gerrit Cole pitching in game one. Cole went 13-8 with a 3.50 ERA this season. Cole did lead the major with 257 strikeouts though.

Bieber, the 2020 A.L. Cy Young winner, will take the mound in game two for Cleveland and probably has the advantage of the Yankees No. 2 pitcher Nestor Cortes, even though Cortes was an All-Star this season and a strong 12-4 record with a 2.44 ERA.

If the Guardians could figure out a way to take the first two games in New York they will win the series, but I think the Yankees offense will be too much to contend with in at least one of those games. I do think there’s a good chance this is a five-game series.

Game three’s pitching matchup would see McKenzie for the Guardians and Luis Severino for the Yanks. McKenzie had a solid season for the Guardians and Severino went 7-3 with a 3.18 in only 19 starts after missing a lot of the season due to injury.

The fun of this series is going to be seeing whether the Guardians stellar top three pitchers in their rotation can keep the runs column low for the Yankees. Ultimately, I think the Yankees will score just enough runs to get by Cleveland in this series, but this could be closer and more surprising of a series than many people think.

That being said, the regular season matchup between these two teams was not close with the Yankees winning five of the six matchups and outscoring the Guardians by 24 runs. The teams haven’t matched up since the first week of July, so the Guardians may well be a different team at this point in the season.

Game one of this series begins today at 6:30 p.m. Game two will be Thursday, Oct. 13 at 6:30 p.m. Game three will be Saturday, Oct. 15 time to be determined later and games four and five if necessary would be Sunday, Oct. 16 and Monday, Oct. 17. All games of this series will be broadcast on TBS.

Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners

The Houston Astros and Seattle Mariners are very familiar with one another playing in the American League West Division. The Astros were the division winners this season going 106-56. The Mariners were one of the league’s three Wild Cards going 90-72 and finishing 16 games behind the Astros during the season.

So, the Astros are obviously the better team when you compare the two for the entire season, but the better team all season long doesn’t always win every playoff series.

The Astros position-by-position are better at most positions, with the exception of center fielder (Mariners probable Rookie of the Year winner Julio Rodriguez mans that position), first base (with Ty France having a better season than Yuli Gurriel) and catcher (though Cal Raleigh is only better offensively than Astros backstop Martin Maldonado). The M’s probably have the better bullpen too.

The Mariners rotation was certainly made better when the team acquired Luis Castillo from the Cincinnati Reds before the trade deadline and the pitching matchups will be the highlight of this series with Justin Verlander, the probably 2022 A.L. Cy Young winner, going against Logan Gilbert, the M’s young gun who went 13-6 with a 3.20 ERA in his first full season in the bigs. The big question mark with this matchup is you know Verlander, a former World Series champion, won’t be bothered by the big game situation, but this is Gilbert’s postseason debut.

Game two could be the best overall matchup of the series with Castillo taking the mound for Seattle and Framber Valdez, a quality start machine, going for the Astros. Castillo was 8-6 with a 2.99 ERA this season. Valdez was 17-6 with a 2.82 ERA.

Robbie Ray, the reigning A.L. Cy Young winner, will take the mound in game three against the Mariners most likely against Lance McCullers Jr. for the Astros. Ray didn’t quite have his Cy Young stuff in his first season with Seattle, but a 3.71 ERA isn’t too shabby. McCullers, coming off an injury, only got eight starts in late this season, but looked solid going 4-2 with a strong 2.27 ERA.

The Astros do have more rotational depth if the series goes longer than three games, which it probably will, with Luis Garcia and Jose Urquidy, but the Mariners also have rookie starter George Kirby as a possibility, and he looks like a stud.

Ultimately, what this series could come down to is veterans vs. newbies. The Astros have been here year after year and some of these guys remain from the 2017 World Series championship team. The Mariners are all mostly new to this. I think the experience for the Astros along with them having the better offense will make the difference.

The Astros were 11-6 against the Mariners this season.

Game one of the series is today at 2:30 p.m. Game two will be Thursday, Oct. at 2:30 p.m. Game three will be Saturday, Oct. 15 with a time to be determined. If necessary games four and five will be Sunday, Oct. 16 and Monday, Oct. 17. All games of this series will be broadcast on TBS.

Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies

The National League East Division champion Atlanta Braves will be taking on their inner-division foe Philadelphia Phillies in the National League Division Series. The Phillies finished third in the N.L. East this season and clinched the third Wild Card position in the league.

The Braves finished the season 14 games ahead of the Phillies, but this current Phillies squad isn’t necessarily the same team it was most of the season. Phillies star outfielder Bryce Harper missed a good portion of the season due to injury and after the Phillies fired Joe Girardi as their manager and replaced him with Rob Thomson a fire was lit underneath them. The Phillies also made the Wild Card Series against the N.L. Central Division winning St. Louis Cardinals look rather easy.

This is all to say the reigning champion Braves better take the Phillies seriously.

The Braves have the better pitching staff of these two teams, which I believe will ultimately be the difference in this series. But Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola looked mighty good for Philly against the Cardinals. When it comes to the offenses the teams are fairly even. The Braves are better at first base with Matt Olson over Rhys Hoskins, the Braves are better at shortstop with Dansby Swanson over Bryson Stott and Austin Riley over Alec Bohm. Rookie Michael Harris has been a revelation for the Braves this season and has the center field advantage over Brandon Marsh. Right field could be a toss-up. Ronald Acuna Jr. is more talented than Nick Castellanos, but we’ll see what happens.

The Phillies are better in left field with power-hitting Kyle Schwarber over the platoon of Marcell Ozuna and Eddie Rosario. Philadelphia has maybe the best catcher in the N.L. with J.T. Realmuto over Travis d’Arnaud and the best hitter in the entire series could be Phillies designated hitter Bryce Harper.

The game one pitching matchup will see Braves ace Max Fried, who went 14-7 with a 2.48 ERA, take the mound against Ranger Suarez for the Phillies. Suarez is the Phillies No. 3 starter, but Wheeler and Nola pitched in the NLWS. Suarez was 10-7 with a 3.65 ERA this year. The Braves have the advantage here.

Game two will see Kyle Wright, baseball’s winningest pitcher in 2022 with a 21-5 record and 3.19 ERA, probably go against Wheeler, who got the game one start in the NLWS against St. Louis. Wheeler was 12-7 with a 2.82 ERA this season but isn’t too far removed from a stint on the injured list and the Phillies seem to be reluctant to stretch him out too far since then.

Game three would see Braves veteran Charlie Morton, who went 9-6 with a 4.34 ERA this season, take on Phillies ace Nola, who was 11-13 with a 3.25 ERA this season. Despite the losing record on the year the Phillies likely have the advantage here with Nola, who was lights out against the Cardinals.

A potential game four could see Braves rookie flamethrower Spencer Strider, who finished the season on the I.L., against Phillies veteran Noah Syndergaard, but plans might change.

The Braves were 11-8 against the Phillies this season. For what it's worth the Braves have had a helluva time winning day games this year finishing under .500 in day games and it's likely all games of this series will be played during the day. 

Game one of the series is today at noon on Fox. Game two will be tomorrow at 3:30 p.m. on Fox. Game three will be Friday, Oct. 14 with a time to be determined on Fox Sports 1. If necessary games four and five will be Saturday, Oct. 15 and Sunday, Oct. 16 both on FS1.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres

The National League West Division champion Los Angeles Dodgers will take on their inner-division rival San Diego Padres in the NLDS.

The Dodgers were the best team in baseball all season long winning 111 games to only 51 losses. That was an incredible 22 more wins than the Padres. But the Padres kind of shocked the baseball world by beating the 101-win New York Mets in the NLWS over the weekend.

I still think it’s too much to ask to think the Padres can topple the Dodgers. This Dodgers roster has the chance to be one of the greatest champions of all time if they can go all the way through the postseason and win the title.

When it comes to the offenses the Dodgers are probably better at catcher (Will Smith over Austin Nola), first base (Freddie Freeman over Brandon Drury/Wil Myers) and shortstop (Trea Turner over Ha-Seong Kim). The Dodgers probably have a slim advantage at right field with Mookie Betts over Juan Soto, but if Soto gets hot he could be the best player in the entire series (or even postseason).

The Padres likely have the advantages at second base (Jake Cronenworth over Gavin Lux), center field (Trent Grisham over Cody Bellinger) and left field (Jurickson Profar over Trayce Thompson/Joey Gallo).

I’ll give the designated hitter spot a toss-up between Max Muncy for L.A. and Josh Bell for the Padres. Bell was hot in the NLWS against the Mets though.

The Dodgers have the advantage when it comes to both starting pitcher and the bullpen, but they’re also missing their ace Walker Buehler, who was injured in the second half of the season and out for the rest of the season. Still, Julio Urias, who will start game one of the series, will likely garner some N.L. Cy Young votes as he went 17-7 with a league-leading 2.16 ERA. Mike Clevinger, the Padres No. 4 starting pitcher, will gerget the nod in the first game because of the team using their top three guys against the Mets. Clevinger went 7-7 with a 4.33 ERA this season. MassiveA massive advantage in game one for the Dodgers.
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Game two will see the future hall of famer Clayton Kershaw take the mound for the Dodgers. Kershaw had yet another stellar season for his HOF resume going 12-3 with a 2.28 ERA. He’ll face Padres ace Yu Darvish who went 16-8 with a 3.10 ERA. Kershaw has had some postseason issues in his career, but it feels like those struggles are mostly behind him.

Game three pitchers are kind of up in the air right now. The Dodgers could run out Tony Gonsolin or Tyler Anderson. The Padres have a decision between veterans Blake Snell and Joe Musgrove. Snell is technically in line, but with the way Musgrove dominated the Mets in the NLWS clincher on Sunday night, the Padres might need him to go out first depending on what happens in the first two games of the series.

I’ll give the Padres one win in this series, but this is the series least likely to go the distance.

The Dodgers were 14-5 this season against the Padres. 

Game one of the series begins today at 8:30 p.m. Game two will be tomorrow at 7:30 p.m. Game three will be on Friday, Oct. 14 with the time to be determined. If necessary, games four and five will be Saturday, Oct. 15 and Sunday, Oct. 16. All of the games of this series will be broadcast on Fox Sports 1.