by Julian Spivey The Major League Baseball expanded postseason gets underway today with game one of all four Wild Card series that will be a best-of-three series and take place over the weekend. The series features the three Wild Card teams from each league, plus the division winner with the worst record (which was the Central Division winner for both leagues this season). The two best records in each league (Houston Astros and New York Yankees in the American League and Los Angeles Dodgers and Atlanta Braves in the National League) received byes into the Division Series. All four Wild Card series should be exciting, but let’s figure out which teams have the best chance at continuing and which ones are probably going home for the winter. Tampa Bay Rays @ Cleveland Guardians on ESPN @ 11 a.m. CST The Cleveland Guardians (the A.L. Central Division winners) and the Tampa Bay Rays (the third A.L. Wild Card) are probably the two teams in the postseason with the least-known household names, but it could be an old-school fan’s wish with both teams relying on pitching, defense and small ball. Neither team hits many long balls. In a short series the team with the best pitching is usually the team to beat and that gives the Guardians the advantage, but whoever wins the extremely important game one (as winning the first two games clinches the series) might just win this series and the Rays have their American League All-Star starting pitcher from this season Shane McClanahan going against Guardians ace (and former Cy Young winner) Shane Bieber. McClanahan went 12-8 this year with a 2.54 ERA, which was fifth in the A.L. Bieber was 13-8 with a 2.88 ERA that was good enough for seventh in the league. This will be one of the best pitching matchups of the entire postseason and it’s the very first game of it. Game two will feature Tyler Glasnow for the Rays who just made his season debut at the end of the season after returning from Tommy John surgery and only got 6.2 innings under his belt against Triston McKenzie, who went 11-11 with an impressive 2.96 ERA on the season. Cal Quantrill would pitch game three for Cleveland if necessary with the Rays probably going with a bullpen game, something they’re more accustomed to doing than any other team in baseball. The best offensive player on either team is Guardians third baseman Jose Ramirez, who might be looking at another top-five finish in A.L. MVP voting. It should be a close series and could be decided by how long Glasnow can go in game two and what kind of stuff he brings, but I’m leaning toward the home-team Guardians taking this series and facing the New York Yankees in the A.L. Division Series. Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals on ABC @ 1 p.m. CST The St. Louis Cardinals won the National League Central Division rather easily down the stretch and the Philadelphia Phillies kind of took the final N.L. Wild Card from a slumping Milwaukee Brewers team, but I think this series could be closer than people think it will be and that’s mostly because the Phils have a better rotation. The Cardinals probably have the better overall offense, but the offense the Phillies do have can be scary with Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, J.T. Realmuto and Nick Castellanos. I have to think the Phillies have the advantage in game one with Zack Wheeler taking the mound against Jose Quintana, who is a bit of a surprising choice for me from the Cards. Wheeler was 12-7 this season with a 2.82 ERA but is only a couple of late-season starts away from an injured list trip. Quintana was 6-7 this season with a 2.93 ERA, but his numbers since joining the Cards at the trade deadline are a much improved 2.01 ERA. The game two probable pitchers are Aaron Nola for the Phillies and Miles Mikolas for the Cardinals. Nola actually had a losing record for Philly this year going 11-13, but his 3.25 ERA was his best since 2018. Mikolas also had a losing record this year at 12-13 with an ERA of 3.29. I assume the Cardinals would start veteran Adam Wainwright in game three in what could be his final career start with Jordan Montgomery ready to piggyback. The Phillies have Ranger Suarez lined up, who went 10-7 with a 3.65 ERA this year. I’m shocked the Cards don’t want to five Wainwright in game two of the series just based on his experience and knowing he won’t let a big moment get to him. If this series goes a third game I think the advantage would switch to St. Louis. I just can’t see the Cardinals losing both games one and two, so I think they’ll find a way to pull out the series and reach the National League Division Series against the Atlanta Braves. Seattle Mariners @ Toronto Blue Jays on ESPN @ 4 p.m. CST The Toronto Blues Jays, the A.L.’s first Wild Card, versus the Seattle Mariners (making their first postseason appearance in 20 years), the A.L.’s second Wild Card, has the makings of being the most exciting Wild Card round series. The Blue Jays have one of the game’s most fun and high-scoring offenses and the Mariners are hungry led by probable A.L. Rookie of the Year winner Julio Rodriguez. The test of this series will be can good pitching slow down a high-powered offense. The Mariners have both the better rotation and bullpen, but the Jays are better at almost every position, except for center field and third base. The Mariners acquired pitcher Luis Castillo from the Cincinnati Reds at the trade deadline, and he’s been lights out for them since going 4-2 with a 3.17 ERA for the team in 11 starts. The Jays have their All-Star ace Alek Manoah on the mound in game one and he was 16-7 this season with a 2.24 ERA, which was third in the A.L. Game two would feature 2021 Cy Young winner Robbie Ray on the mound for Seattle (he won that Cy Young with Toronto) against likely Kevin Gausman. Ray wasn’t his Cy Young self this year, but a 3.71 ERA isn’t bad. Gausman, who replaced Ray in Toronto’s rotation, was even better going 12-10 with a 3.35 ERA. If the Blue Jays want to win this series they need to take the first two games for the sweep because Mariners No. 3 pitcher Logan Gilbert is better than whomever the Jays would likely send out to the mound in game three. This should be the closest of all four MLB Wild Card Series and I’m leaning toward Seattle winning it and taking on their A.L. West Division rival Houston Astros in the Division Series. San Diego Padres @ New York Mets on ESPN @ 7 p.m. CST The New York Mets are clearly the best team in the Wild Card series round with a 101-61 season record, which is eight games better than the next closest team in the round. The only reason they didn’t receive a bye is that lost the National League East Division to the Braves via a tiebreaker. The Mets won 12 more games than the Padres did this year, so they should be fairly heavy favorites, especially with Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom taking the mound in games one and two of the series, but I wouldn’t completely count out a Padres offense that includes Juan Soto and Manny Machado. The only way for the Padres to really have a shot at reaching the Division Series to play their N.L. West rival Los Angeles Dodgers would be for Yu Darvish and Blake Snell to out-duel Scherzer and deGrom. It’s certainly possible, but unlikely.
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