Astros or Rangers: Which Team Has the ALCS Edge?

by Julian Spivey

The 2023 American League Championship Series has a Lone Star flavor to it this year with the American League West Division champion Houston Astros taking on the in-state rival Texas Rangers, one of the three A.L. Wild Cards in the postseason. The A.L.C.S. will be the first time the two ball clubs from Texas have met in the postseason and it’s sure to be a helluva fun series between fairly evenly matched teams.

The A.L. West division hunt went down to the final day of the regular season just a couple of weeks ago with the Astros winning the division via a tiebreaker as both teams finished the season at 90-72.

The reigning champion Astros, who have reached their amazing seventh consecutive ALCS, defeated the Minnesota Twins in four games in the best-of-five American League Division Series. Meanwhile, the Rangers have yet to lose in the postseason sweeping the 99-63 Tampa Bay Rays in two games in the American League Wild Card series and upsetting the league’s best team this season in the 101-61 A.L. East Division champion Baltimore Orioles in three straight games in the ALDS.

The ALCS begins tonight at 7 p.m. on Fox with the Rangers traveling to Houston to take on the Astros at Minute Maid Park.

Here’s a breakdown of the series position-by-position:

Catcher
It’s kind of hard to breakdown the position of catcher between these two because when it comes to 37-year-old veteran Martin Maldonado it’s widely known that he’s one of the best game-callers and defensive catchers in the game, but offensively he’s not going to give you much of anything. The Rangers, on the other hand, had one of the A.L.’s All-Star catchers on their squad this season with 28-year-old Jonah Heim having a breakout season in his second year with the team. Heim hit .258 this season with 18 homers and 95 RBI. Maldonado, who split time this season behind the plate with the more offensive rookie Yainer Diaz, hit a measly .191 with 15 home runs and 36 RBI.

Edge: Rangers

First Base
Nathaniel Lowe had a pretty good season for the Rangers at first base with 17 home runs and 82 RBI, while hitting .262, but he’s been scuffling at the plate thus far in the postseason only going 4-for-25 (.160). Astros veteran Jose Abreu, in his first season with the team, struggled to begin the season but finished the regular season as the hottest hitter on the team and one of the hottest hitters in the game. That continued into the ALDS against the Twins, even with the almost week-long layoff since the Astros had a wild card round bye with Abreu hitting three bombs and driving in a postseason-leading eight runs in the four games of that series.

Edge: Astros

Second Base
The closest offensive matchup you’re likely going to get between the Astros and the Rangers is at second base. The Astros have veteran Jose Altuve at second and he’s proven over this last decade to be one of the greatest postseason players in baseball history. His 24 career postseason homers are second all-time to Manny Ramirez’s 29. Altuve missed the first couple of months of the season after hurting himself in the World Baseball Classic before the season but still managed to have a nice season with 17 homers, 51 RBI, 14 stolen bases and a .311 average. Rangers two-bagger Marcus Semien is easily one of the best at his position in the game and had a terrific year hitting .276 with 29 homers, 100 RBI and 185 hits. Semien will certainly be capable of out-playing Altuve in the ALCS but has struggled in his first five games of the postseason hitting just .174 – that and Altuve’s postseason superpower lead many to giving the advantage to …

Edge: Astros

Third Base
Josh Jung came out of the box this season shining at the hot corner for the Rangers as a 25-year-old rookie. He made the All-Star team and finished the season hitting .266 with 23 homers and 70 RBI, which were lowered by missing 40ish games due to injury. The Astros have Alex Bregman, who’s been there/done that in the postseason, and he put up another solid season in 2023 hitting .262 with 25 homers and 90 RBI. Bregman has 16 career postseason homers, but his career postseason average is about 40 points lower than his regular season average. Still, with the experience Bregman has, I’m willing to give him the advantage here but don’t be surprised if Jung outplays him.

Edge: Astros

Shortstop
Shortstop is an interesting matchup in this series because it involves two of the last three World Series MVPs in Astros shortstop Jeremy Pena, who won the World Series MVP last season, and Corey Seager for the Rangers, who was the World Series MVP with the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2020. But I don’t think this matchup is very close as Seager is arguably the best shortstop in all of baseball, especially at the plate. Seager was second in the A.L. this season in hitting with a .327 average and hit 33 homers with 96 RBI. He’s also been their hottest bat in the postseason thus far hitting .429 with a 1.537 OPS over five games. His experience from years of postseason play with the Dodgers is something that can’t be denied. For his part, Pena hit .263 this season with 10 home runs and 52 RBI.

Edge: Astros 

Outfield
The outfield is hard to prognosticate because Yordan Alvarez, who’s probably the scariest player in the series, has been splitting time between left field and designated hitter in the postseason. He alone could sway the edge in this series when it comes to the outfield. For the purposes of this piece, I’m going to consider him a designated hitter. So, that leaves veteran Michael Brantley playing left for the ‘stros, with Chas McCormick in center field and Kyle Tucker in right field. The Rangers have up-and-comer Evan Carter, who has been a star in the postseason thus far, in left, Leody Taveras in center and Adolis Garcia in right.

I know some may scoff at this, but I’m going to consider Tucker and Garcia to be a push. Both had monster seasons for their respective teams. Tucker hit .284 with 29 home runs, 112 RBI and stole 30 bases. Garcia hit for much less average than Tucker at .245 but for more power with 39 homers to go along with 107 RBI.

Both team’s center fielders are among the weakest hitters on their respective teams but are both rangy, above-average defensive players. Taveras was +6 outs above average for the Rangers this season, while McCormick was +4 outs above average for Houston. McCormick is a bit better at the plate than Taveras.

In left field, Brantley is the veteran with the playoff experience but it feels like Carter may be the bigger threat during the series the way he’s been performing in the postseason thus far. Carter is hitting .429 this postseason with a homer, three doubles and three RBI and is walking twice as much as he’s striking out.

Edge: Rangers

Designated Hitter
So, as I previously mentioned, for the purposes of this article Yordan Alvarez is Houston’s DH and he has a clear advantage over the platoon of Mitch Garver and Robbie Grossman for the Rangers. Alvarez hit four homers in just four games in the ALDS against the Twins and has seven homers since the start of Houston’s playoff run last season and 10 for his postseason career. Rangers pitchers should probably hope no one is on base when he comes to the plate often this series.

Edge: Astros 

Rotation
The biggest question regarding the rotations for the ALCS is whether or not Max Scherzer is going to come back from an injury that cost him the last month-plus of the regular season and has kept him out of the Rangers' first two postseason series. It looks like he’s going to make the team’s ALCS roster but that still doesn’t mean he’ll play or how effective he’ll be if he pitches. What I desperately want to see out of this series is Scherzer matching up against his former Detroit Tigers and New York Mets teammate Justin Verlander. The two were teammates for much of the season with the Mets before both being dealt to their current, much better situations before the trade deadline at the end of July. The two don’t really seem like they like each other a whole lot and seeing them go head-to-head on such a big stage would be amazing – but it’s probably unlikely even if Scherzer can go.

The Astros would seemingly have the upper hand in the rotation for the series with Verlander, Framber Valdez, who is a quality start machine, and Cristian Javier but damn if Jordan Montgomery and Nathan Eovaldi haven’t been the most dominant twosome of the postseason thus far for Texas. Montgomery and Eovaldi have combined to go 3-0 this postseason with a 2.19 ERA and 22 strikeouts in their four starts (again the Rangers have only played five games so far). Future Hall of Famer Scherzer would likely slot in as the game three starter if he can go, which would definitely keep the Scherzer vs. Verlander thing from happening as Verlander gets the ball for the ‘stros in game one tonight. Other pitchers who could get starts in the series include Jose Urquidy for Houston and Dane Dunning for Texas. The way Montgomery and Eovaldi have been pitching has made them look unbeatable, but let’s be honest – this Astros offense is scarier than those of the Orioles and Rays. I’m willing to get the postseason experience that the Houston staff has the advantage.

Edge: Astros   

Bullpen
The Rangers back-end combination of veteran Aroldis Chapman and Jose Leclerc has been pretty amazing this postseason thus far and if you include Josh Sborz into the mix they have combined to allow just one run in 11 appearances between them this postseason. I don’t know much about the rest of the Rangers bullpen because we haven’t had to see much of them this postseason after those three arms. The Astros always have one of the better bullpens in baseball anchored by closer Ryan Pressly and setup man Bryan Abreu. Pressly is an amazing 13-for-13 in career postseason saves, including two this postseason. Abreu has seven strikeouts over three scoreless postseason outings so far this year. If the Astros starter gets them late into the game good luck against those two guys. Again, I feel like the “been there/done that” experience for Houston is the deciding factor.

Edge: Astros 

Prediction: Houston Astros in 6