NBA Finals Conversation: Which Team Has the Advantage?

by Eric Fulton & Julian Spivey

JS: The 2024 NBA Finals begin on ABC on Thursday, June 6 between the Eastern Conference champion Boston Celtics and the Western Conference champion Dallas Mavericks. The Celtics dominated the East all season long finishing 14 games ahead of the second-place New York Knicks in the conference with a 64-18 season record. The Celtics trip throughout the Eastern Conference playoffs has been something of a cakewalk for the team, as well, having no real issues with any of its competition and taking advantage of some key injuries to its competition in what many have called the easiest route to the NBA Finals in league history. The Mavericks entered the postseason 50-32 as the fifth seed in the Western Conference with a slightly less easy route to the NBA Finals having to beat three teams better seeded than them along the way: Los Angeles Clippers, Oklahoma City Thunder and Minnesota Timberwolves. Eric, do you think it's true that the Celtics have had an easy trip to the NBA Finals?

EF: I think that the Celtics have had an easy trip to this year's NBA Finals, but let's keep in mind that Miami, Cleveland, Indiana, and to a certain extent, the Knicks and the Bucks all had injuries to key players and had any of the teams not have had these injuries, Boston's road to the Finals would have been a lot tougher. It doesn't mean the games leading up to the Finals were not easy for the Celtics, but if everyone was healthy, I am not sure if Boston represents the East.

JS: The Celtics are the odds-on favorites to win the NBA Finals. They'd have to be with what we've seen this season and being the one-seed in the East against the West's five-seed. But there's a bit of a theory going around that since the Celtics haven't really had a hard-fought series and the Mavericks have had nothing but hard-fought series that Boston could be in for a rude awakening. Do you think there's something to that line of thinking?

EF: A little bit, but this is the Celtics' second time in the Finals in the last three years and I believe this year's team is better than two years ago. Dallas will not be an easy challenge for the Celtics but having that recent experience will help Boston.

JS: So, a lot of times when you see predictions and comparisons for championship series you’ll see them broken down position by position. But Boston/Dallas is unique in that each team clearly has a “Big 2” playing for them - Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown for Boston and Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving for Dallas. Let’s start with each team’s best player - Tatum and Doncic. Which of these guys do you see having the best series and why?

EF: I have seen both Tatum and Doncic play great games and series and then I have seen both have not so many great games. It is about who will rise to the occasion. Both are great players, but the run Doncic is on lately has me thinking he will be and is the better of the two right now. So, I have Luka having the best series of the two.

JS: I’ve given Tatum a hard time over the last few years for being a guy who chokes in the playoffs. When the moments are at their biggest he seems to shrink. So, this series is a moment for him to prove himself. To throw that reputation out the window. It’ll be interesting to see if he can do that. But, yes, if I had to choose one player between Tatum and Doncic to take in this series it would be Doncic. He’s averaging nearly three points per game more this postseason and he leads the postseason in assists per game at 8.8/game.

JS: When it comes to each team’s No. 2 who do you see having the better series? Jaylen Brown or Kyrie Irving.

EF: I feel like Kyrie is having a great resurgence this year in Dallas. Knowing this might be his last real shot at getting a second ring, he has stepped up his play. However, I think at times, Jaylen Brown might be the best number two guy in the NBA. The thing is he might be the Celtics' MVP. If you take Brown out of Boston, does Tatum even become an MVP candidate or put up the numbers he does in some of the big games? I think a lot of Tatum's success is because of Brown. I will have to give the advantage to Brown.

JS: There’s nobody in the series with as much playoff and Finals experience as Kyrie Irving. That’s just a fact. And he’s done a lot to rehabilitate his image this postseason with Dallas. He’s averaged 22.8 points per game this postseason with 5.2 assists per game to go along with it. But again, I can’t disagree with anything you said about Jaylen Brown. I think at this point he has to be considered the best No. 2 player in the league and he’s honestly more 1B than no. 2. He’s averaged 25 points per game this postseason, which is only one point per game less than Tatum. Tatum is 15th this postseason in PPG and Brown is literally right behind him in 16th. Plus, I just love the energy and tenacity that Brown brings to the Celtics.

JS: So, let’s group the other three starters in the series together. Boston center Kristaps Porzingis, who hasn’t played for Boston since game four of the first round, is expected to return for game one of the series. And at the guard positions you have tenacious defender Jrue Holiday and sharpshooter Derek White. For the Mavericks you might not have as household names in the rest of the main rotation with Daniel Gafford at center and Derrick Jones Jr. and P.J. Washington at the forward spots. Is Boston clearly favored at 3-5 in the lineup or does Dallas have something for them?

EF: If Porzingis is healthy enough to play, I would give the Celtics the advantage. He has not played since round one, but the Celtics have played well without him. I do like the Mavericks front court. They have a well-rounded front court and have done well in the playoffs. I feel as though they will play well in the Finals. Having said that, I do love the veterans of Boston, especially Holiday. He brings that defensive mentality to the team and White has come on his own this season. I will have to go with the Celtics in this matchup.

JS: I think this is where Boston widens the gap between themselves and Dallas. I also like the Dallas front court but it’s hard to argue against the experience and veteran leadership of the other three Boston starters, especially Holiday.

JS: Which team has the advantage when it comes to the bench?

EF: The benches will be an interesting matchup because it feels as though both teams may only play seven or eight deep. I have to pick the Celtics because of Al Horford and Payton Pritchard and the impact they bring to Boston.

JS: Do you think one team has a coaching advantage against the other?

EF: Jason Kidd has been on the biggest stage as a player. Now he is the coach. Joe Mazzula is coaching his first NBA Finals. And some say he is still not the right coach in Boston. If the Celtics do win the Finals, then the questions should be laid to rest. But I will take Kidd in the coaching advantage because of the experience he had in the Finals as a player.

JS: Kidd certainly has the most experience - not only as a coach but having won a title as a player with the Mavericks in 2011. But there’s just something about Mazzula. Maybe it’s just that he inherited a good roster but he just seems to have what it takes. I don’t understand those questioning him as a coach, especially with the team being so much better than those behind them this season.

JS: So, what’s your prediction for the series?

EF: It’s a tough series to pick. I can't see Boston cruising in this series. Dallas has a huge chip on their shoulders. This will be a lot better than last year's NBA Finals [which the Denver Nuggets won easily over the Miami Heat]. I fully expect this to be high drama. I will go with the Celtics in a full seven-game series.

JS: Everything I’ve said thus far might lead one to believe that I think this will be an easy, quick series for the Celtics. But I’m going to give Dallas a couple of Ws. I think it’ll be tougher than it looks on paper - and who knows if some breaks go their way and the big game Jayson Tatum we’ve seen in the past shows up Dallas may pull the upset. But the Celtics in six games is my prediction.