NBA Finals Preview: Warriors Good on Paper, But ESPN's BPI Has Celtics as Big Favorites

by Julian Spivey

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ESPN’s Basketball Power Index would have you believe the NBA Finals, beginning tonight (June 2) on ABC at 8 p.m., are going to be such a cake walk for the Boston Celtics that there’s truly no reason to even tune in (unless you’re a Celtics fan, of course). ESPN’s BPI gives the Celtics an 86 percent chance to win the NBA Finals, which seems ludicrous to me. I think the series is basically a toss-up with the seasoned Warriors veterans mixed in with some great young role players and the Celtics team that’s never had a single player play in a Finals game before matching up. Exactly where do the advantages lay with each team. Let’s try to figure that out.

Point Guard: Stephen Curry (Warriors) vs. Marcus Smart (Celtics)

So, here’s the key matchup of the NBA Finals in my opinion. You have the Warriors best player and shooter Steph Curry matching up against the current NBA’s Defensive Player of the Year in Marcus Smart. Best shooter in league history versus Defensive Player of the Year is tantalizing. I think Smart is going to hound Curry like we’ve never seen Curry hounded before and it’s going to be huge for the Celtics chances to win the title. Curry won the newly created Western Conference Finals MVP award scoring 24 points per game and 42 percent from three-point land against the Dallas Mavericks. I kind of doubt his numbers will be that good against Smart, who keep in mind injured Curry the last time they played toward the end of the regular season causing Curry to miss most of the final month of the season. But Curry will have some games where he likely goes full Curry too. If Smart can keep those Curry games to three or less the Celtics likely win this thing.

Advantage: Warriors – listen I know the praise I just heaped upon Marcus Smart, but I’ll have to see him actually do it before I can go against the greatest shooter I’ve ever seen play the game.

Shooting Guard: Klay Thompson (Warriors) vs. Jaylen Brown (Celtics)

The two-guard matchup between Klay Thompson and Jaylen Brown is probably the most equal positional matchup of the series. Both players are arguably their respective team’s second best player and scoring option – though the Warriors do have moments when Jordan Poole or Andrew Wiggins can be that instead of Thompson. The Celtics don’t really have that luxury. Thompson was so-so for most of the Western Conference Finals against Dallas until he went off for 32 points and eight 3-pointers in the clinching game five of the series. Brown has averaged 23 points per game this postseason, second on the team to Jayson Tatum’s 27 per game. At least half of the Celtics nightly offense comes from Brown and Tatum. Brown has had a better all-around postseason than Thompson, so I wouldn’t be surprised if Brown is the better of the two in the Finals, but I just can’t write off Thompson, especially if he plays more like game five of the WCF than the first four games of that series in the Finals. I hate pushes when doing position-by-position comparisons, but I feel I have no other choice here.

Advantage: Push

Small Forward: Andrew Wiggins (Warriors) vs. Jayson Tatum (Celtics)

Andrew Wiggins has been HUGE for the Golden State Warriors this postseason and his defense on Jayson Tatum in the Finals could be one of the major deciding factors on which team wins the championship, but if you’re ranking the best players in the Finals based on both regular season and postseason performance Tatum is the best player in this series and despite Wiggins great output for G.S. in the playoffs this one isn’t close.

Advantage: Celtics

Power Forward: Draymond Green (Warriors) vs. Al Horford (Celtics)

Al Horford is going to score more points in the NBA Finals than Draymond Green. I’d be confident in that. Horford has averaged 12 points per game this postseason. Green has averaged 8.7. Horford’s likely going to out rebound Green too. But as Green goes so do the Warriors and it’s hard to measure his intangibles and intensity on the court. Green also leads the Warriors roster in assists per game, as his part in the team’s amazing passing skills is crucial to their offensive flow. One thing that also can’t be measured is how badly will Horford want to win a title after playing in the most postseason games in NBA history of any players to previously have never reached the championship round. I think this matchup will be pretty close this series, but Green is more important to the overall play of the Warriors than I believe Horford to be for Boston.

Advantage: Warriors

Center: Kevon Looney (Warriors) vs. Robert Williams III (Celtics)

I have to be straight with you – I didn’t get to catch all that many Celtics games this season, so I don’t know a whole lot about their big man Robert Williams III. He’s been injured for part of the playoffs and has only started half of Boston’s games on their run to the Finals. He’s put up almost eight points per game, 5.5 boards per game and two blocks per game. Those numbers would’ve had him likely able to steal a push out of this matchup with Kevon Looney before I saw the way Looney absolutely dominated the boards and paint for the Warriors in the Western Conference Finals against the Mavericks. Looney was basically putting up a double-double in every game of the WCF and if he can bring that intensity and output to the Finals he’ll clearly have the advantage in this matchup.

Advantage: Warriors

Bench: Jordan Poole, Otto Porter, Gary Payton II, Andre Iguodala, Nemanja Bjelica, Jonathan Kuminga + more (Warriors) vs. Grant Williams, Derrick White, Daniel Theis, Payton Pritchard (Celtics)

The Warriors have the deepest bench in the entire league and it’s only getting deeper as it seems Otto Porter, Gary Payton II and Andre Iguodala are all returning from injury just in time for the Finals. I don’t know how much Iguodala will actually play, but Porter and Payton have been massive parts of the Warriors bench success all season. Jordan Poole is clearly the best player coming off the bench in this series for either team and at points in the playoffs – mostly in the earlier rounds he was the best player in a Warriors jersey for multiple games. He’s been the Dubs third leading scorer this postseason with 18.4 points per game. While the Warriors can run 12 different guys on the court the Celtics seem content playing about an 8-man rotation, so three guys coming off the bench. The Celtics best bench player this postseason, but especially in the Eastern Conference Finals has been Derrick White, who averaged over 14 points per game and shot 35 percent from behind the arc in the final four games of the ECF. The depth of the Warriors bench might provide huge dividends in the Finals as it’ll allow the starting five to rest, whereas Tatum and Brown are going to have to play almost every minute of every game. At least the Celtics have youth on their side.

Advantage: Warriors
 
Coach: Steve Kerr (Warriors) vs. Ime Udoka (Celtics)
Steve Kerr has now coached the Warriors to six of the last eight NBA Finals and already has three rings to his coaching resume. This is the very first season as the main guy on the sideline for Ime Udoka. There’s truly not much of a comparison here. It’ll ultimately be up to what the athletes do on the court, but how could I possibly go with Udoka over Kerr here?

Advantage: Warriors
 
Prediction: Warriors over Celtics in 7

So, ESPN’s BPI basically has the Celtics as a championship lock. My position-by-position breakdowns have the Warriors with an advantage at every single position with the exception of small forward and shooting guard (and I even gave G.S. a push there). So, why do I have the Celtics pushing this championship series to a game 7?

There are three key reasons:

1. I can’t completely get ESPN’s BPI out of my head. I don’t exactly understand why it has the Warriors as such massive underdogs, but there are numbers and formulas that go into deciding these things and ultimately I can’t completely disregard them just based on the Warriors experience and how things look to me on paper. There has to be something to this massive disparity. 

2. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are that good. The duo is averaging 60 points per game over the postseason. There’s not a whole lot needed from the rest of the team when your stars are carrying that much of a load. I need to see how the Warriors defense plays against these two before I have complete confidence in the Dubs. 
 
3. Marcus Smart on Steph Curry could be what this series comes down to and not only do I worry about Smart’s Defensive Player of the Year skills on Curry, I also somewhat worry about him getting into Curry’s head and just being an all-around nuisance.