NBA Finals Preview: Will Nuggets or Heat Hoist the NBA Trophy

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by Eric Fulton & Julian Spivey
 
JS: The Miami Heat finally put away the Boston Celtics in the NBA Eastern Conference Finals to advance to the NBA Finals to face the Denver Nuggets, who put away the Los Angeles Lakers in the Western Conference Finals more than a week ago. Let’s break down the NBA Finals matchup - which sees a no. 1 seed facing a no. 8 seed for just the second time in league history. The last time was 1999 when the No. 1 seeded San Antonio Spurs put away the No. 8 seed New York Knicks in 5 games. The Heat are just the second 8 seed to ever reach the Finals. This is the first Finals appearance in Nuggets franchise history. Let’s start with the best player on each team, even if they don’t play the same position. The Nuggets have two-time MVP Nikola Jokic at center, and he may very well be the best player in the entire NBA right now. The Heat have Jimmy Butler, who’s put his team on his back for most of the postseason to get them to this almost unprecedented point. Even if the two don’t defend each other much if ever in the series, which team has the superstar advantage?
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EF: I love Jimmy Butler's game. I have always had respect for his game and the way he plays basketball. But I have to say that I am choosing Nikola Jokic because I have never seen a big man who can be walking triple-double and do it with ease. Butler plays the better defense of the two, but the way Jokic can impact the game and make the right play offensively is a total game-changer.

JS: Butler has likely been, with the exception of some of the games in the ECF against Boston when Miami tried to give the series away, the MVP of the postseason. He's averaged 28.5 points per game in the postseason and has absolutely willed the Heat this far. He may continue to will them even further, but there's no way I could take him over Nikola Jokic. Jokic is an absolute unicorn in the way he plays basketball as a big man. He's one of the best passers in the league and isn't afraid to take and hit long jumpers. Jokic has averaged just under 30 points per game this postseason, while leading all players in the playoffs with 10.3 assists per game (again, as a center!) and he's been second in rebounding (behind only Anthony Davis of the Lakers) with 13.3 a game.

JS: Caleb Martin has played some big games for the Heat in the postseason, but I'd have to say the No. 2 guy for Miami behind Butler is center Bam Adebayo. And Denver's second-best player is its point guard Jamal Murray. Which team has the advantage with its second-best player?

EF: I am going with Jamal Murray. He has been really good so far in these playoffs. Murray had a serious knee injury during the 2021 playoffs and he miss all of last season. He has come back stronger than ever. In the Western Conference Finals, he averaged over 30 points per game while shooting 50% from the field, 40% from three, 90% from the free throw line. That's only the second time any player has ever put those kinds of numbers in a playoff series. He is averaging 28 a game the entire playoffs. Murray has definitely become a great player on his own terms.

JS: Yeah. I truly mean no offense toward Bam Adebayo, who can be a big threat for Miami scoring inside and redirecting shots on defense, but Jamal Murray is clearly the best No. 2 of this series. Not only has he been putting up massive scoring numbers he's also averaging six assists and nearly two steals per game. Adebayo has been averaging roughly 17 points per game with 9.2 rebounds as Miami's second-best player.

JS: OK, let's talk about the rest of the starters for these two teams. Denver has Aaron Gordon at power forward, Michael Porter Jr. at small forward and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope at the two-guard position. Miami has seen Caleb Martin play big at forward - some even feel he should've been ECF MVP. They've been starting Gabe Vincent at point guard and Max Strus at two-guard. Which team has the advantage?

EF: I have to think Denver still has the advantage on this one. Gordon can be a machine at the power forward position, Porter Jr is right now a top-five small forward when healthy, and KCP has a new edge to his game since leaving the Lakers. Martin, Vincent, and Strus have been nice stories for the Heat. All of them have helped Miami get better as the playoffs continue, but I think that the Denver three compliments the duo of Jokic and Murray. That is a really good starting five.

JS: Denver does have a really solid starting five and I agree they have the advantage here too. Porter has been averaging 14.6 points per game along with eight rebounds. Gordon has been averaging 13 points a game and Caldwell-Pope nearly 12. That comes out to 100 points per game just with Denver’s starting five. If Martin can play as well in the Finals as he did in the ECF that’ll be a huge boost for Miami, but overall, the Nuggets probably take this matchup too.

JS: What about the benches? I know when it comes to the playoffs and finals teams tend to shorten up their bench and play the starters more minutes but will either bench play a big factor? And if Tyler Herro is able to return from his injury how do you see him impacted the series for Miami?

EF: If Tyler Herro returns for Miami, that would be huge for the Heat because of Herro's outside game. He is their best shooter. The Heat may steal a game because of their good shooting and it would be led by Tyler Herro. As far as the bench is concerned, Denver does not use their bench as much. There will probably be just an additional three guys for the Nuggets: Jeff Green, Bruce Brown and Christian Brown. Green is the vet while the other two are young players. I don't really expect much from their bench. The Heat will be fully stocked with guys with a ton of experience like Kyle Lowery, Kevin Love and Cody Zeller. I see the Heat having a much more efficient bench than the Nuggets. So, I will give them the advantage on this one.

JS: Brown has been the Nuggets’ fifth-highest scorer this postseason. But I’ll agree with you on the Miami bench, especially if Herro could return (with that possibility happening around game three). The veteran presence of Lowry and Love could be huge for Miami. Love has now made the Finals all five times he’s reached the postseason in his career. I assume Erik Spoelstra has the advantage at coaching simply because this is his sixth Finals appearance and it’s the first for Michael Malone.

EF: Bonus stat: This will be the 19th NBA finals for Pat Riley as either a player, coach, or executive. He's been involved in 25% of the NBA Finals.

JS: Do you think the almost week and a half layoff for the Nuggets will have any impact on them?

EF: I think they will be rusty early in game 1 but I do think they will have the maturity to pick themselves up and play better late. I expect game 1 to be close and I don't think it will be a sweep. Miami can steal one of the first two games in Denver. But once they get things together, the Nuggets are going to show they are the better team.

JS: All right, so do you think the Nuggets will win the series in 5 games or do you see it going longer?

EF: I debated whether it would be five or six games. I am leaning toward six games.

JS: My first inclination was to predict the Nuggets to win the title in five games, but I don’t want to underestimate the sheer determination of Jimmy Butler, which might be big and good enough on its own to take multiple games in the series. So, not to bore our readers too much, but I’m going to agree with you on the Nuggets in six games prediction. We’re both taking Denver to win its first-ever NBA title.

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