by Julian Spivey The National League side of the playoffs is looking like déjà vu with the Philadelphia Phillies swinging their way through the N.L. side, including two straight years of beating the Atlanta Braves, a team that finished 14 games ahead of them in the N.L. East Division both years. It’s not quite the same for the Arizona Diamondbacks, but for the second straight year a team that finished well behind the Los Angeles Dodgers in the N.L. West Division shocked them in the N.L. Division Series. I think a lot of people, maybe more familiar with the Phillies from last year’s postseason run, or because they’re an East Coast team or simply because they have bigger names like Bryce Harper and Trea Turner, are thinking the National League Championship Series might be a cakewalk for them, but I think this could be closer than that, especially if the D’Backs two stud pitchers Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly pitch with their A-games. The NLCS begins tonight at 7 p.m. on TBS with the Diamondbacks traveling to Philadelphia to take on the Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. Here’s a breakdown of the series position-by-position: Catcher I just looked at MLB.com’s version of this type of article, and they think the Diamondbacks have the catching advantage with Gabriel Moreno, a 23-year-old rookie that I honestly don’t know a lot about having not caught many D’Backs games this season. Moreno hit .284 with seven home runs and 50 RBI in 111 games. I think MLB.com’s thinking is he’s had a power streak in the postseason thus far with three homers already and he’s really good at throwing out base stealers (and the Phillies have run a bunch in the postseason, especially Turner). I have to go with the old reliable veteran J.T. Realmuto, who maybe wasn’t as good this season as he has been historically (.252, 20,63), but I don’t see him letting the big stage get to him. Realmuto has been one of the best backstops in the game at throwing out base stealers (something the D’Backs do a lot too) and has been one of the best-hitting catchers in the game over the last decade. I’m not going to let a hot postseason start for Moreno sway my opinion here. Edge: Phillies First Base Christian Walker has been one of the Arizona Diamondbacks' biggest offensive producers this season and is likely the team’s biggest power threat but let me ask you one question. Who scares you more at the plate if you’re a pitcher: Walker or Bryce Harper? That’s what I thought. Walker hit .258 this season with a team-leading 33 home runs and 103 RBI. Harper’s power production wasn’t as great with 21 homers and 72 RBI (in about 30 fewer games), but he hits for a higher average at .293 and always seems to step up his game during the postseason. Harper has 14 career postseason homers and his three already this postseason in just six games ties his best for a single postseason. Edge: Phillies Second Base Ketel Marte always seems to be an underrated player, probably because there hasn’t been much reason to talk about the Diamondbacks during his now ninth season with the club, of which he’s already one of the franchise’s all-time best position players. Marte hit .276 this season with 25 homers, the second-highest total of his career, and 82 RBI. Marte has two homers and four RBI in 22 at-bats this postseason. The Phillies have sophomore Bryson Stott at second best moving over from shortstop this season when the time acquired Trea Turner during the offseason. Stott had a quietly good season hitting .280 with 15 home runs, 62 RBI and 31 stolen bases. He has a homer and seven RBI in six games this postseason but has been hitting about 40 points below his season average in the small sample. This matchup is pretty close to being what I’d consider a push, but to keep things from being a little out of hand on the advantages I’ll give Marte’s veteran leadership the upper hand. Edge: Diamondbacks Third Base It’s young versus old when it comes to the hot corner for these two teams. The Diamondbacks have veteran Evan Longoria toward the end of his career and not near the offensive threat he was in his heyday with the Tampa Bay Rays. But his veteran presence must be huge for a young-ish ballclub. Longoria’s regular season numbers were a bit deflated because he wasn’t the team’s main option at third but has started each of the team’s five games thus far this postseason. Longoria only hit .233 when he played this season. For the postseason he’s only 3-for-18. Alec Bohm kind of gets hidden in a Phillies lineup that includes Harper, Turner, Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos but he had a pretty solid season hitting .274 with 20 home runs and an impressive 97 RBI. Another tally in the advantage column for the Phillies offense. Edge: Phillies Shortstop Geraldo Perdomo made the N.L. All-Star team this season for Arizona, but let’s be real here. Who would you rather have on your team? Perdomo or Trea Turner. It’s kind of a tale of halves in the season for these two shortstops – Perdomo had a hot first half but his OPS dropped nearly 200 points in the second half. Meanwhile, Turner after being a major signing for the Phillies during the offseason and looking like Captain America for Team USA during the World Baseball Classic scuffled big time in the first half but really turned it on in the second half upping his OPS by more than 200 points over the first half. Turner’s OPS in the postseason thus far is a through-the-roof 1.455 and he’s had the greatest season in baseball history when it comes to stolen base percentages with a perfect 34-for-34 when you combine the regular season and postseason. Edge: Phillies Outfield The Phillies have sort of been going with a platoon in left field of Brandon Marsh against right-handed pitching and Cristian Pache against southpaws, but Marsh will see much of the playing time in the NLCS, which is probably better for the Phillies from an offensive standpoint. He’s a pretty outstanding fielder too (though Pache is probably better). The D’Backs have Lourdes Gurriel Jr. in left field who started the season on fire and has struggled since. That MLB.com article I previously referenced says the Phillies have the advantage, but I just don’t know about that. Marsh is 2-for-14 in the postseason with a solo homer. Gurriel is 5-for-21 with a homer and three RBI. Johan Rojas, the Phillies center fielder, just made his Major League debut on July 15 this season but he’s been pretty impressive hitting .302 with 14 stolen bases (out of 15 attempts) since coming up. That half-season of play is more impressive than what Alek Thomas has managed to do for the D’Backs this season. Thomas has only hit .230 with nine home runs and 39 RBI and Rojas has managed to double Thomas’ WAR (Wins Above Replacement) in half the time. I’m going to feel bad about right field because I think based on what I’ve written about left and center field, this is the spot in the outfield that sways the outfield advantage as a whole. Corbin Carroll, the 22-year-old who’s certain to win the National League Rookie of the Year honor, has been Arizona’s best player all season. He hit .285 and became the first rookie in baseball history to reach 25 home runs and 50 stolen bases. He also tallied 30 doubles and led the league with 10 triples. He hasn’t slowed down a bit in the postseason with seven hits in 17 at-bats (.412) with two homers, four RBI and two stolen bases to go along with it. Meanwhile, after watching the NLDS between the Phillies and Braves, I am certain that Nick Castellanos is the hottest hitter in the National League at the moment. Castellanos hit two homers in back-to-back games (incredibly all were solo shots) to end that series and hit .467 in that series. Based on the season as a whole, the D’Backs have the right field advantage with Carroll but I wouldn’t want to face Castellanos right now if I were the D’Backs pitching staff. Edge: Diamondbacks Designated Hitter Kyle Schwarber frankly drives me up the wall with his style of play and I cannot believe Phillies skipper Rob Thomson has him hit leadoff in his lineup. His three-outcome strategy at the plate of either hitting a home run, walking or striking out just isn’t the way I believe the game should be played. So, what you can probably expect from him in the NLCS against Arizona pitching is a couple of bombs and then not a whole lot else. The question is – will those bombs mean more in the series than Tommy Pham’s offensive output for the Diamondbacks? Pham is 7-for-22 in the postseason but was 6-for-14 with four runs scored in the NLDS against the Dodgers. I know some people are going to roll their eyes at this but at the moment I’d rather have Pham getting on base than Schwarber possibly hitting a couple of homers this series. Edge: Diamondbacks Rotation: The rotations for both of these teams have been the real deal thus far in the postseason. The casual baseball fan may not know the names of Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly for Arizona, as well as they do Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola for the Phillies, but they have pretty identical numbers to the Phillies top two. Where the Diamondbacks are at a rotational disadvantage is they basically have nothing to follow up Gallen and Kelly with Brandon Pfaadt, who’s only managed seven innings pitched through two postseason starts and had a season ERA of nearly six this season, as their third starter. Meanwhile, the Phillies' third starter Ranger Suarez has a ridiculously good 1.16 ERA in seven career postseason games. The Diamondbacks are going to need to probably win three to four games during Gallen and Kelly’s starts this season to win the series, while anyone the Phillies send to the mound could easily beat you. Philly hasn’t had to use a fourth starter this postseason but they have veteran Taijuan Walker if they need one. If Arizona needs a fourth starter this series it probably should be a bullpen game and their season would probably be over. Edge: Phillies Bullpen Both of the bullpens on these teams have been extremely impressive this postseason. The Phillies closer Craig Kimbrel has been there/done that when it comes to postseason baseball and despite the fact he can occasionally give fans heartburn when he’s on the mound he usually comes out on top. Jose Alvarado is the scariest arm in the Phil’s bullpen to me and Orion Kerkering, who only pitched in three games at the end of the season, has had three perfect playoff innings thus far. The acquisition of Paul Sewald to close for the Diamondbacks at the trade deadline was huge for the team. Kevin Ginkel was demoted to AAA in June but has been top-notch for the D’Backs since returning to the bigs. The biggest thing for the Diamondbacks bullpen this series could be how lefties Joe Mantiply and Andrew Saalfrank handle the scary lefties of Harper and Schwarber in the Phillies lineup. The Phillies relievers throw more smoke, have more postseason experience and the pen probably has more depth, so while it’s close, I think they have the edge here. Edge: Phillies Prediction: Phillies in 6
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