Predicting ALDS: Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros

by Julian Spivey

The American League Central Division champion Minnesota Twins dominated the Toronto Blue Jays in the Wild Card round and now move on to the American League Division Series to take on the A.L. West Division champion and reigning World Series champion Houston Astros.

The first game of that series is on Saturday, Oct. 7 at 3:45 p.m. (CST) on FS1.

The Twins dominated the Blue Jays in the Wild Card round because of terrific pitching from their one-two punch of Pablo Lopez and Sonny Gray, but those guys will need a bit of rest before taking on the killer Astros lineup. Lopez may be able to go in game two on Sunday on slightly short rest because if the Twins save their best pitching for games three and four this could be a quick series.

The Twins haven’t announced their game one starter as of this writing but it’ll either be Joe Ryan, who was 11-10 with a 4.51 ERA this season, or Bailey Ober, who was 8-6 with a 3.43 ERA this season. Whoever takes the mound in game one for the Twins will be going up against future hall of famer and multi-time former World Series champion Justin Verlander, whom the Astros re-acquired from the New York Mets at the trade deadline. Verlander has been really strong since rejoining the team with a 7-3 record and a 3.31 ERA. Verlander’s 16 postseason wins are the second-most in baseball history behind Andy Pettitte’s 19 and if the Astros run this postseason lasts long enough that record could be in jeopardy. The Astros have a clear advantage in game one of the series when it comes to starting pitching and in game two of the series they’re going to toss Framber Valdez, who’s one of the most consistent pitchers in the game. Valdez was 12-11 this season with a 3.45 ERA and a team-leading 200 strikeouts. The Twins could find themselves quickly on the brink of elimination against Verlander and Valdez. The Astros used to have the “Killers Bees” on offense with Jeff Bagwell, Craig Biggio and Lance Berkman. Now it's the “Killer Vs” you have to worry about from them on the mound.

I don’t want to be too negative toward the Twins in this series prediction piece but I can say for certain their offense is nowhere near as good as the Astros.

The Twins offense is led by outfielder Max Kepler, who led the team in home runs with 24 this season and also 66 RBI. It’s hard to believe a team could win a division in today’s game without a single hitter reaching 70 RBI. Rookie Royce Lewis has been the best hitter for the team since being called up. Lewis played in 58 games this season and managed 15 homers and 52 RBI in just that small amount of time. He also became just the third hitter in MLB postseason history to homer in his first two postseason at-bats against the Toronto Blue Jays a couple of days ago. Then there’s also maybe the biggest storyline of the series – Twins shortstop Carlos Correa playing against the Houston Astros, whom he won a World Series with in 2017. Correa hit .230 this season with 18 homers and 65 RBI and always seems to be a big threat come playoff time.

The Astros probably have the scariest lineup in the American League with Yordan Alvarez, fresh off winning A.L. Player of the Month in September, with a .293 average, eight homers and 20 RBU in the month – and he didn’t even lead his own team in RBI in September. First baseman Jose Abreu, who began the season with a ridiculously long homer drought, hit seven homers and drove in 28 runs in September. Those guys come into the postseason on fire. Then you have one of the all-time great postseason players in second baseman Jose Altuve, who missed two months this season but still hit 17 homers, drove in 51 runs and hit .311. I haven’t even yet mentioned the team’s probable MVP this season in outfielder Kyle Tucker who led the team with 112 RBI, while hitting .284 with 29 homers.

For the Twins to have any chance in the ALDS they are going to have to win when Lopez and Gray start. It’s going to be a tough task even if they do that.

Prediction: Astros in 5 

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Game 1: Saturday, Oct. 7 @ 3:45 p.m. (CST) on FS1
Game 2: Sunday, Oct. 8 @ 7 p.m. (CST) on FS1
Game 3: Tuesday, Oct. 10 @ 3 p.m. (CST) on Fox
Game 4: Wednesday, Oct. 11 @ TBD on Fox or FS1 (if necessary)
Game 5: Friday, Oct. 13 @ TBD on Fox or FS1 (if necessary)