Predicting ALDS: Texas Rangers vs. Baltimore Orioles

by Julian Spivey

The American League Division Series between the Texas Rangers, hot off of the dominant Wild Card round performance over the Tampa Bay Rays, and the Baltimore Orioles begins Saturday, October 7 at noon on FS1.

This should be a really fun series with two teams that haven’t made the postseason in many years and are young and hungry.

The Orioles had the luxury of having a bye for the Wild Card round so they are able to match their pitchers up exactly how they’d like to, while the Rangers two best starting pitchers – Jordan Montgomery and Nathan Eovaldi – will have to go later in the ALDS. The Orioles pitching staff might not yet be household names in upstarts Kyle Bradish, who had a breakout sophomore season with a 2.83 ERA, 168 strikeouts and a 12-7 record in 30 starts. The O’s haven’t announced a game one starter as of this writing, but I imagine it’ll be Bradish taking the hill. The O’s No. 2 starter has been the hard-throwing rookie Grayson Rodriguez, who had a 4.35 ERA on the season but has been much better in the second half of the year at 2.58. Rodriguez was 7-4 in 23 starts. The Orioles will have Kyle Gibson (15-9, 4.73) and Dean Kremer (13-5, 4.12) lined up after that.  If the Rangers were able to throw out Montgomery and Eovaldi in the first couple of games (I suppose Montgomery might start game 2 on slightly short rest on Sunday) I’d feel a little bit better about the Rangers pitching chances. Behind Montgomery and Eovaldi, Texas has Jon Gray (9-8, 4.12), who’s solid but has cloudy availability at the moment with a right forearm injury. After Gray would be Dane Dunning (12-7, 3.70) and Andrew Heaney (10-6, 4.15).

The biggest blow to the Orioles pitching staff was losing dominant reliever Felix Bautista late in the season to Tommy John Surgery, but they still have Yennier Cano and Danny Coulombe, who have had great seasons. The Rangers probably have the advantage now without the O’s having Bautista in the bullpen. Jose Leclerc and Aroldis Chapman were pretty great shutting down the Rays late in games and Chapman has been there, don’t that when it comes to the postseason before.

The offenses for both of these teams are pretty even. It’s going to be great for America to get a big stage to see young studs like Orioles catcher Adley Rutschman and Orioles infielder Gunnar Henderson. Rutschman, considering by many already to be the best catcher in the game, hit .277 this season with 20 homers and 80 RBI. Henderson tied for the team lead in homers this season with 28, while driving in 82 runs and hitting .255. Anthony Santander, the Orioles right fielder, was the biggest offensive threat for the team this season hitting 28 homers and driving in a team-high 95 runs, while hitting .257.

The Orioles could be a threat on the basepaths this series with spark plug Cedric Mullins in center field and Jorge Mateo at shortstop who combined for more than 50 stolen bases this season.

The Rangers middle infield is the best in all of baseball with Marcus Semien at second base and Corey Seager at shortstop. These vets won’t be stunned by the big stage of the MLB postseason and will be the major key to the Rangers success in the series. Seager was second in the A.L. this season in hitting with a .327 average. He also hit 33 homers, drove in 96 runs and had 42 doubles. Semien led the Rangers with 185 hits, which included 29 homers and 40 doubles. Semien’s 100 RBI were second on the team behind All Star outfielder Adolis Garcia, who drove in 107. Garcia also led the Rangers with 39 homers, while hitting .245. Throw in All Star catcher Jonah Heim, All Star third baseman Josh Jung and first baseman Nathaniel Lowe and this is a pretty scary offense for the Orioles young pitching staff to have to face.

The Orioles were clearly the best team in the American League this season with a league best record of 101-61, in what was probably the toughest division to compete in in the league, but I worry about their lack of experience on the big stage and the young age of the ballclub this early in the team’s success.
I think this will be a great and close series, but I’m leaning toward …

Prediction: Rangers in 5

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Game 1: Saturday, Oct. 7 @ Noon (CST) on FS1
Game 2: Sunday, Oct. 8 @ 3 p.m. (CST) on FS1
Game 3: Tuesday, Oct. 10 @ 7 p.m. (CST) on Fox
Game 4: Wednesday, Oct. 11 @ TBD on Fox or FS1 (if necessary)
Game 5: Friday, Oct. 13 @ TBD on Fox or FS1 (if necessary)