Predicting NASCAR's 16-Driver Playoff Field

by Julian Spivey

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1. Chase Elliott
Chase Elliott road a hot streak in the playoffs last season, winning three of his five races of the season in the last five races of the year, to his first Cup Series championship. Things are only likely to get better for Elliott in 2021 thanks to a completely overhauled Cup schedule that includes seven road course races, when last year only had two. Elliott is far and away the best road racer in the Cup Series right now and has won the last four consecutively. I wouldn’t be surprised if Elliott won five of the seven road course races this season. The only thing he’ll have to watch out for is only one of those road events is in the postseason.

2. Kevin Harvick
Kevin Harvick was clearly the best driver in NASCAR last season with a season high nine wins, 20 top-5s and 27 top-10s. But with the way the playoffs are sometimes the best driver in the sport doesn’t even qualify for the Championship Four and Harvick finished the season fifth in the point standings. I see no reason for Harvick and his Stewart-Haas Racing team to back off this season, though winning nine races in a year is probably not going to happen again.

3. Denny Hamlin
Denny Hamlin is without a doubt the greatest active driver in NASCAR without a championship and I don’t think it’s even close at this point. In fact, he may have surpassed Mark Martin as the greatest bridesmaid in NASCAR history. With 13 wins in the last two seasons, he’s been right on the cusp of getting that title, but I have him coming up just short once again this season.

4. Kyle Busch
Last season was certainly the most challenging of Kyle Busch’s tenure with Joe Gibbs Racing. It looked like he’d have the first season of is career without a win, until he finally found Victory Lane at Texas at the end of the season. It was shocking to see a guy who likely has more talent than any other driver in the garage to struggle without practice sessions. I think Busch will get back to his winning ways this season, after all he averaged 5.4 wins in the five seasons prior to last year.

5. Martin Truex Jr.
It honestly feels weird having Martin Truex Jr. outside of my top four given the last few seasons he’s had on the track. Never has a driver gone from disappointing to Hall of Famer as quickly and as late in a career as Truex has. Winning only a single race last season after winning four or more in the previous four seasons was kind of a shocker, but he still had 14 top-5 finishes. It seems highly likely he’ll be in contention.

6. Joey Logano
Joey Logano is perhaps the most aggressive driver in the Cup Series, which works for him often and sometimes works against him. He’s won a race every season since 2011 and most years wins multiple times. Honestly, you can flip-flop him here with Keselowski, whom I’ve placed one spot below him, but I’ll give Logano the sixth spot because he’s won a title more recently.

7. Brad Keselowski
Brad Keselowski has won at least three races in every season since 2015 and has won a race in every season of his career, except for his rookie year. He finished second last season to champion Chase Elliott, although I’m not sure how many will even remember that. He’s always going to be in the hunt.

8. Ryan Blaney
Ryan Blaney seems like the driver most likely to make the next big step and possibly compete for a championship. He’s won a race in each of the last four seasons, but never multiple races in a year. That’s the next thing I need to see from him. I just can’t put him above the first seven drivers on this list, six of whom are former champions.

9. Kyle Larson
Kyle Larson is a major question mark for me as he missed most of last season after being fired by Chip Ganassi Racing and all of his sponsors after being suspended for dropping a racist slur during an iRacing event. Hendrick Motorsports signed him this off-season and Larson has certainly be on fire driving in dirt events. I was shocked to see former Cup stars like Dale Earnhardt Jr., Dale Jarrett and Jeff Burton predicting him to make the Championship Four this year. I truly don’t know where those predictions are coming from. But I would expect to see him in the playoffs.

10. Alex Bowman
Alex Bowman has won one race in each of the last two seasons and I expect he’ll get at least one more win this season to qualify for the playoffs, but he hasn’t shown me yet that he’s capable of making it to that final four championship race yet.

11. William Byron
William Byron got his first career Cup Series win last year at Daytona in the cutoff race to qualify for the playoffs. I think more wins are likely to start coming for the 23-year old, but at this point he’s probably only the fourth best driver on his own team at Hendrick Motorsports.

12. Kurt Busch
Kurt Busch is a consistent driver. He’s won at least one race since the 2013 season (and every year but 2015 when he won twice) he wins exactly one race – that’s good enough for the automatic clinch into the playoffs. He simply doesn’t win enough to be a champion though at this stage in his career. His best playoff finish in those last seven years is seventh.  

13. Matt DiBenedetto 
Matt DiBenedetto has been on the cusp of winning his first career Cup Series race a couple of times over the last two seasons. I just feel like 2021 is going to be the year for him to finally make Victory Lane and clinch a playoff spot. He was able to point his way into the playoffs last season. DiBenedetto has extra incentive to win this year to show prospective teams he can do it as he’s on a one-year contract with Wood Brothers Racing and will be replaced in the ride by 2020 Xfinity Series champion Austin Cindric for 2022.

14. Christopher Bell
Christopher Bell had a rough rookie season last year driving the now defunct No. 95 for Leavine Family Racing, but 2020 was likely the hardest season to be a rookie in the Cup Series with practice sessions being wiped out due to COVID-19 protocols for the majority of the year. He’s been promoted to Joe Gibbs Racing for 2021 and I think we’ll see the talent that came through in the Xfinity Series and Camping World Truck Series and the Cup Series has added a dirt race at Bristol this season and Bell is an expert on the surface and could see his first Cup win at the track.

15. Aric Almirola
Aric Almirola has made the Cup Series playoffs the last three years, pointing his way in the last two seasons without a win, but hasn’t had much success in the playoffs being eliminated in the first round those last two seasons. I think he’ll likely earn enough points to get himself there again.

16. Chase Briscoe
I don’t typically like projecting rookies to make the NASCAR playoffs because it doesn’t often happen, but I’m going to go out on a small limb and say Chase Briscoe gets into the 16-driver field. His Stewart-Haas Racing teammate Cole Custer made it last year as a rookie by winning a race and I think Briscoe should be even better. Briscoe had a terrific Xfinity Series campaign in 2020 winning nine races before being promoted to the Cup Series.