Predicting NLDS: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

by Julian Spivey

The Arizona Diamondbacks took down the National League Central Division champion Milwaukee Brewers in two games in the National League Wild Card series and now get to travel to Los Angeles to take on the division-rival Dodgers in the National League Division Series.

These two teams are pretty familiar with one another and thus this should be a close and fun series, despite the fact that the Dodgers won 16 more games than the Diamondbacks this season. If you rewind the clock one year you’ll remember that the Dodgers were upset in the NLDS last season by the inner-division rival San Diego Padres, who had finished 22 games behind them in the National League West.

There’s also reason to be concerned if you’re a Dodgers fan because let’s face it this Dodgers team isn’t near as scary on paper as it has been for much of its decade-long run of success. Walker Buehler has missed the whole season with an injury and Julio Urias is on the ineligible-to-play list due to off-the-field legal issues (he’s a woman-abusing asshole to be more specific).

So, what the Dodgers have going pitching-wise after their future hall of fame ace Clayton Kershaw, who’s often been a little wonky in postseason performance, is rookie Bobby Miller and veteran Lance Lynn. Kershaw, despite battling shoulder issues all season, was still one of the N.L.’s best pitchers with an amazing 2.46 ERA and 13-5 record. Miller had a terrific rookie season going 11-4 with a 3.76 ERA. Lynn was solid with the Dodgers going 7-2 with a 4.36 ERA after being acquired before the trade deadline from the Chicago White Sox. The Dodgers have a solid bullpen featuring Evan Phillips, who seems to have fallen into the closer role, with Brusdar Graterol, Caleb Ferguson, Ryan Brasier and Shelby Miller all putting up nice numbers.

Merrill Kelly will take the ball for the Diamondbacks in game one of the NLDS, having not had to pitch in the NLWC. Kelly had the Diamondbacks' best ERA this season at 3.29, despite it being his teammate Zac Gallen getting all the potential N.L. Cy Young Award talk. Kelly was 12-8 in 30 starts with 187 strikeouts. He should match up well against Kershaw in game one, which could be a nice pitcher’s duel. With the N.L. side of the division series getting a day off between games one and two, it should set Gallen up to take the mound in game two of the series on normal rest. Gallen was 17-9 this season with a 3.47 ERA and gave up two runs on five hits in six innings against the Brewers in the deciding game two of the NLWC round. The problem facing the Diamondbacks is they don’t really have anything worthwhile in their rotation following Kelly and Gallen, so if they’re going to contend with the Dodgers they absolutely will have to win the games in which Kelly and Gallen start, which is a tough task against the Dodgers offense. Arizona does have a pretty solid bullpen, though, led by closer Paul Sewald and set-up guys Kevin Ginkel and rookie Andrew Saalfrank, who pitched well in the NLWC.

The Dodgers clearly have the better lineup 1-9, especially with perennial National League MVP candidates Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman. Betts hit .307 this year with 39 homers and a new MLB-record 107 RBI from a leadoff man. Freeman .331, which led the team, with 29 homers, 102 RBI and was one double shy of becoming the first hitter since the 1930s to reach 60 doubles in a season. The Dodgers had an incredible four hitters reach the 100 RBI mark with Max Muncy (105) and J.D. Martinez (103) joining Betts and Freeman. The Dodgers also have one of the better-hitting catchers in the game in Will Smith, who hit .261 this season with 19 homers and 76 RBI.

The biggest threat in the Diamondbacks’ lineup is their superstar rookie outfielder Corbin Carroll, who basically had rookie of the year wrapped up by midseason. Carroll became the first rookie in baseball history to tally 25 home runs and 50 stolen bases and the Dodgers really need to keep him off the basepaths to have success.

The Diamondbacks’ biggest power threat is first baseman Christian Walker, who hit a team-leading 33 homers and drove in a team-leading 103 RBI this season while hitting .258.

Second baseman Ketel Marte (.276, 25, 82) and outfielder Lourdes Gurriel (.261, 24, 82) will be Arizona’s other biggest threats in the lineup. There isn’t a whole lot after that to get the Dodgers pitching staff quaking in their cleats.

This should be a fun series, that I believe might be closer than many probably think it’s going to be, but ultimately I don’t see the Dodgers letting a team so far behind them in their own division beat them two postseasons in a row.

Prediction: Dodgers in 5 

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Game 1: Saturday, Oct. 7 @ 8:20 p.m. (CST) on TBS
Game 2: Monday, Oct. 9 @ 8 p.m. (CST) on TBS
Game 3: Wednesday, Oct. 11 @ TBD (CST) on TBS
Game 4: Thursday, Oct. 12 @ TBD on TBS (if necessary)
Game 5: Saturday, Oct. 14 @ TBD on TBS (if necessary)