Predicting the 16-Driver NASCAR Playoff Field

by Julian Spivey
The NASCAR Cup Series 16-driver playoff field is always nearly impossible to predict in its entirety because of the “win-and-you’re-in” qualification that can lead to surprises. For instance, I didn’t predict Michael McDowell in the playoffs last season (who honestly did?) but he was the first to clinch a spot by winning the 2021 Daytona 500. This season is particularly hard to predict because of the new car introduced into the series that all teams are having to get used to on the fly and there’s no telling which drivers and teams will adapt the quickest. 

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1. Kyle Larson
Kyle Larson absolutely curb-stomped the competition in 2021 in his first season with Hendrick Motorsports on his way to winning 10 races and the Cup Series title. It was the best season for any NASCAR driver in more than a decade. With the new cars this season I don’t know if that success or even half of it will transfer to 2022, but I do know Larson has had wide success driving multiple different kinds of cars and if anybody can adapt to a new car quickly it could likely be him. We might be looking at the first repeat champion of the sport in more than a decade. 

2. Chase Elliott 
Chase Elliott surprisingly struggled in defense of his 2020 Cup Series title last season. Yes, he won multiple races, but both came at road courses where he honestly might be able to win some of those blindfolded (he’s on pace to become the greatest road racer in NASCAR history). He’s averaged three wins a year over the last four seasons, so I’d probably expect him to be around that number again in 2022. 

3. Denny Hamlin
Denny Hamlin has been to the Championship 4 in the last three seasons, but thus far has not won a championship in his career. I don’t really know what that says about him, but I do know he’s averaged five wins a year over the last three seasons. He should be a threat to win another handful or so races in 2022. 

4. Martin Truex Jr. 
Martin Truex Jr. has averaged almost five victories per year over the last six NASCAR seasons and has been Mr. Consistent. He’s appeared in the Championship 4 in four of the last five seasons with a championship in 2017 and three runner-ups, including last year when he won four races. I don’t see any reason why Truex would be taking a step back at this point. 

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5. Ryan Blaney
I had been waiting for Ryan Blaney to really bust through in the Cup Series. He had one a race in each of the four previous seasons before 2021 but had never had more than one win in a season until scoring three last year. I think he’s going to be a threat for at least that many wins in 2022 and could be a championship caliber threat. 

6. Joey Logano 
Last season was a bit of a struggle for Joey Logano, certainly more than he’s used to. His only win came in the inaugural dirt track race at Bristol Motor Speedway, which was a bit surprising in itself. He’s now the veteran at Penske Racing and primed for a big year. 

7. Kyle Busch 
Kyle Busch found Victory Lane twice in 2021 after having gone most of the 2020 season without winning until the end of the year. He still appeared to be scuffling more than one is used to seeing from Busch, but he was always vocal the lack of practice time affected him greatly. Now that NASCAR is back to weekly practices, I think we’ll see a bit of the old Busch again. 

8. Alex Bowman
Hendrick Motorsports has been so dominant lately that all four of its drivers feel like automatic locks to make the playoffs. Alex Bowman had a career year in 2021 with four wins but struggled in the playoffs and failed to make it out of the first round. I think he can make it two rounds further in 2022. 

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9. William Byron
There were times in 2021 when William Byron was the most consistent driver in the Cup Series. He posted 12 top-5s and 20 top-10s during the season. His one win came early in the season at Homestead-Miami Speedway in the third race of the year. His consistency will get him to the playoffs, but he’ll need to find his way to Victory Lane more often to be a real title threat. 

10. Kevin Harvick
It was quite shocking when Kevin Harvick went winless last season, especially after having led the Cup Series with nine wins the year before. He still pointed his way into the playoffs last season. Keeping Harvick out of the playoffs seems impossible and I’m sure he’ll find his way back to Victory Lane soon. 

11. Tyler Reddick
I bet Tyler Reddick gets his first career Cup Series win this season in his third full-time season. The two-time Xfinity Series champion seems to be getting better the more he runs in his Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet and pointed his way into the playoff field last season. 

12. Christopher Bell 
Christopher Bell won his first career Cup Series race in his sophomore season last year and he surprised people by doing it at the Daytona road course (which, unfortunately, won’t be on the schedule this season). Bell is bound to get more comfortable at the Cup level and I think he’ll have multiple wins this season. 

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13. Austin Cindric 
Austin Cindric is a rookie in the NASCAR Cup Series this year as he takes over the No. 2 Roger Penske Ford left behind by Brad Keselowski, who moved over to co-own Roush Racing. It’s always risky to predict a rookie into the playoff field, but the Cup Series has six road course races these days and five of those come before the playoffs and Cindric is a road racing ace. I think he’s going to win at least one road race this season and clinch a playoff spot. 

14. Kurt Busch 
Kurt Busch is the definition of consistency. He has won exactly one race in each of the last six seasons. So, why not win one this season? The only issue might be warming up to a new team as he moves over from the defunct Ganassi Racing to a second car added to the 23XI Racing team. I don’t think it’ll be a hard transition for him and his addition to the team will most likely make the whole organization better. 

15. Darrell Wallace Jr. 
This the one of the 16 drivers I’m predicting to make the field that I’m the least confident about. Darrell “Bubba” Wallace Jr. got his first Cup Series win late last season at Talladega Superspeedway in a rain-shortened event, but he looked prime to win that race even if it went to the finish. He’s become quite the superspeedway driver and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him win one of those four races this season in his second year with 23XI Racing. 

16. Brad Keselowski
This is going to be the hardest season Brad Keselowski has had since his rookie year in the Cup Series. It’s not going to be easy for him and he may not win a race. Roush Racing had been behind the field for quite a while now when it comes to performance – and that might change this year with the new car, but it might also continue. If the team struggles to keep up with the field Keselowski will have to focus on pointing his way into the playoff field, but I think he can and will do that.