Predicting the MLB Postseason Wild Card Matchups

by Julian Spivey

Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays
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The first American League Wild Card series beginning today is the No. 5 seed Texas Rangers heading to Tropicana Field to take on the No. 4 seed Tampa Bay Rays. The Rangers are an interesting team in that the ballclub features one of the deadliest offenses in the entire playoffs led by its middle infield of Corey Seager and Marcus Semien but has one of the weakest pitching staffs in the postseason. The Rays, meanwhile, are kind of middle of the road in both aspects of the 12 teams that made the Major League Baseball Postseason. The Rays aren’t quite the same team they were for much of the season with the loss of their ace Shane McClanahan to Tommy John Surgery and one of their offensive stars Wander Franco suspended indefinitely while being investigated for relationships with underage girls. Still, with hitters like Randy Arozarena, Yandy Diaz and Isaac Paredes it’s a better offense than one we’ve seen the Rays take all the way to the World Series before. In a short series like the Wild Card round, it’s the pitching that will likely have the biggest impact. Game one today will see Tyler Glasnow take the hill for Tampa Bay and Jordan Montgomery for Texas. Glasnow was 10-7 this season with a 3.53 ERA. Montgomery was 10-11 in time split between St. Louis and Texas with a 3.20 ERA. I’m willing to give the Rangers the advantage here due to the offense. Zach Eflin, who tied Toronto Blue Jays pitcher Chris Bassitt for most American League wins this season with 16, will go for the Rays in game two on Wednesday. The Rangers have yet to name a starter for that game but I would assume it will be Nathan Eovaldi, who was an All-Star for the Rangers in the first half but has struggled in the month or so since returning from an injury. I’ll give the Rays the advantage in game two forcing the series to a winner-take-all game three. Kevin Cash has been somewhat of a genius manager for the Rays interchanging parts to frequently take his team further than typically expected. But I’m leaning toward this Rangers offense in this series.

Game one begins at 2 p.m. (CST) on ABC. Games two and three would also be at the same time and network on Wednesday and Thursday.

Prediction: Rangers in 3. 

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Toronto Blue Jays @ Minnesota Twins
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Much like the Texas Rangers in the previous American League Wild Card matchup, the Toronto Blue Jays have a deadly lineup featuring the likes of former A.L. MVP Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette and George Springer. The Twins have two top-of-the-line pitchers leading their rotation in Pablo Lopez, who was 11-8 with a 3.66 ERA this season and Sonny Gray, who was 8-8 but had the A.L.’s second-best ERA at 2.79. The Blue Jays have a couple of pretty good starting pitchers themselves in Kevin Gausman and Jose Berrios, and that’s not even considering that it’s Chris Bassitt, who tied for the league lead with 16 wins this season. Gausman was 12-9 with a 3.16 ERA this season and is one of the best strikeout pitchers in the game. Berrios, who not too long ago was an All-Star for Minnesota, was 11-12 with a 3.65 ERA. There aren’t game three probables yet if it goes that far (and I think it will) but I assume it would be Bassitt for Toronto and Joe Ryan, who was 11-10 with a 4.51 ERA, for Minnesota. The Twins have one of the weaker offenses in the entire postseason and the worst of the A.L. teams. Max Kepler led the team in homers and RBI with only 24 and 66. The pitching should be close between the teams, but I just don’t think the Twins can slug enough to take out the visiting Blue Jays.

Game one begins today at 3:30 p.m. (CST) on ESPN. Games two and three would also be at the same time and network on Wednesday and Thursday.

Prediction: Blue Jays in 3. 

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Arizona Diamondbacks @ Milwaukee Brewers
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Word came out on Monday afternoon that one of the Milwaukee Brewers best pitchers Brandon Woodruff wouldn’t be available for the National League Wild Card round due to a shoulder injury that may keep him out longer if the Brewers advance. The Brewers likely have the best rotation of all 12 teams in the postseason, which could play huge dividends, but the team also has one of the weakest offenses in the postseason so an injury to a top-flight pitcher like Woodruff could be enough to sway a short series like the one against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Arizona has a couple of good starting pitchers in N.L. Cy Young Award candidate Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly, but because the team had to use them over the weekend in an effort to clinch a postseason berth neither will be available in game one of the series leading the team to send Brandon Pfaadt and his 5.72 ERA to the mound against Brewers ace Corbin Burnes, who was 10-8 with a 3.39 ERA this season. I don’t expect the Diamondbacks to win game one today with that matchup. So, it’ll be up to Gallen, who was 17-9 with a 3.47 ERA, to beat Freddy Peralta (I assume, he hasn’t been announced yet), who was 12-10 with a 3.86 ERA this season. If Gallen and the Diamondbacks offense led by probable N.L. Rookie of the Year Corbin Carroll and Christian Walker can do that it would force a deciding game three, which would probably give Kelly, who was 12-8 with a team-best 3.29 ERA this season, an advantage over whoever the Brewers tossed out there.

Game one begins today at 6 p.m. (CST) on ESPN2. Games two and three would also be at the same time and network on Wednesday and Thursday.

Prediction: Diamondbacks in 3. 

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Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies

The Philadelphia Phillies are giving me the 2022 Phillies vibes where they ran their way through teams that had been better than them all season long in the National League side of the playoff bracket before finally succumbing to the Houston Astros in the World Series. I wouldn’t put it past them doing that again, especially if the offense is clicking and aces Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola do what they’re capable of doing on the mound. The Phillies also have one of the most powerful offenses in the postseason featuring Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Nick Castellanos and Kyle Schwarber. The Marlins offense features batting champion Luis Arraez and some power in Jorge Soler but overall, it’s not that scary. Game one today features Wheeler, who was 13-6 with a 3.61 ERA, on the bump for the Phillies. Jesus Luzardo, who was 10-9 with a 3.63 ERA, will take the mound for Miami. Game two would feature Aaron Nola, who was 12-9 with a 4.46 ERA, pitching for Philly and Braxton Garrett, who was 9-7 with a 3.66 ERA, going for the Marlins. I expect the Phillies offense to be too much for Miami and this is the one series I’m predicting over in two games.

Game one begins today at 7 p.m. (CST) on ESPN. Games two and three would also be at the same time and network on Wednesday and Thursday. 

Prediction: Phillies in 2.