Prediction: Dodgers Win World Series in 7

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by Julian Spivey
The 2020 World Series is unique for many reasons – it’s being played in one, neutral location in Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas and it’s the first World Series with a universal designated hitter – but the uniqueness that most excites and interests me is it’s a rare match-up of best records in each league.
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Believe it or not, especially from a sport that until this season had the fewest teams qualify for the postseason, it’s only the fourth time since baseball expanded to a three division game in 1995 that the top record in each league has met up in the Fall Classic. It’s even harder to believe it’s happened this year with baseball nearly doubling the number of teams that play in October. And with the league probably going to an expanded playoff format in the future it’s less and less likely to occur going forward.

So, who’s going to win the 2020 World Series?

I’ve got to stick with the team that I picked before the season even began – and when I say that I don’t just mean in August when the shortened due to the COVID-19 pandemic 60-game season kicked off, but all the way back in March during Spring Training. That team is the Los Angeles Dodgers. I’ve felt the Dodgers have been the team to beat ever since they acquired former MVP Mookie Betts from the Boston Red Sox in the offseason. It just felt like the final piece they needed to get over the hump that has seen them get so close only to lose as this is the team’s third World Series appearance in the last four years.

It’s going to be a fascinating World Series no matter what. You have the power house, high salaried Dodgers against the low salaried (Clayton Kershaw and Mookie Betts of L.A. make about what the entire Rays roster combined does), young Rays team with many players that many fans outside of Tampa Bay may not be able to pick out of a lineup.

Either way a long drought is going to end. The Dodgers haven’t won a World Series since 1988 and the Rays have never won a World Series in their 22 year history (this is the franchise’s second trip to the Fall Classic).

Let’s break the two teams down position-by-position:

Rotation:

Game 1: Clayton Kershaw (Dodgers) v. Tyler Glasnow (Rays)
Game 2: Bullpen Game (Dodgers) v. Blake Snell (Rays)
Game 3: Walker Buehler (Dodgers) v. Charlie Morton (Rays)

I’m going to stop with probable pitchers here because this is pretty much all we know thus far. Arguably each team has their best pitchers going in game three because they recently pitched in their respective League Championship Series, so if the series goes long enough (as I suspect it will) Buehler and Morton will each only get two starts.

In tonight’s game one the Rays have the young Tyler Glasnow going up against the future hall of famer Clayton Kershaw for the Dodgers. Kershaw, as any baseball fan knows, has not been the same postseason pitcher as he is in the regular season – but he hasn’t been bad this postseason. He’s 2-1 with a 3.32 ERA and 23 strikeouts, but in four previous World Series starts he’s merely 1-2 with an ERA over five. He also didn’t look particularly strong in his one NLCS start against the Atlanta Braves giving up four runs in just over five innings pitched. Glasnow is also 2-1 this postseason, but with an ERA more than a run higher than Kershaw’s. Glasnow has struck out the fourth most batters this postseason with 25 Ks.

Blake Snell, the former American League Cy Young winner for Tampa Bay, hasn’t been bad this postseason, but hasn’t been great either. He’s 2-2 with a 3.20 ERA and 19 strikeouts, but the biggest concern for him is he hasn’t pitched more than five innings since the A.L. Wild Card Series against the Toronto Blue Jays. The Rays may catch a break offensively in game two with Dodgers manager Dave Roberts saying it’ll be a bullpen game for the Dodgers with Julio Urias, Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin all expected to go multiple innings – but sometimes that can actually be a disadvantage for a lineup since they likely won’t face the same pitcher twice.

Advantage: Push

Bullpen:
The Dodgers and Rays had two of the three best bullpens based on ERA during the season. But the Rays have had much better postseason performance out of their bullpen. The Dodgers bullpen, in fact, allowed 15 runs in 15 2/3 innings in the first four games of the NLCS and was the biggest factor in the Braves almost beating them. Rays manager Kevin Cash also seems to have a better knack for strategizing his bullpen than Roberts does for the Dodgers.

Advantage: Rays

Catcher:
Both the Dodgers backstop Will Smith and the Rays catcher Mike Zunino have some pop and are always a threat to hit a homer. Zunino had a horrible regular season but has stepped it up a lot in the postseason with four home runs. Smith is the better all-around catcher, but pretty much half of his offensive output in the playoff came in a historic 5-for-6 game in the final game against the San Diego Padres in the National League Division Series. I have to give the advantage to the Dodgers though with Smith having the better overall season.

Advantage: Dodgers

First Base:
The Rays have a platoon going at first base with lefty Ji-Man Choi and righty Yandy Diaz based on who’s on the mound for the other team. Choi has hit much better than Diaz during the postseason. Dodgers first baseman Max Muncy is an outright threatening presence at the plate and always a threat to pop one out of the park.

Advantage: Dodgers

Second Base:
This is one of the spots I’d like to say the Rays have an advantage, but not if Brandon Lowe continues to hit like he has this postseason. Lowe hit .269 with 14 homers in the shortened regular season but has only hit .115 with one homer and only two RBI during the postseason. Still I think Dodgers second baseman Chris Taylor is probably the weakest bat in their lineup, which is saying something because he hit .270 this season, so I’ll expect Lowe to turn things around a bit.

Advantage: Rays

Third Base:
Justin Turner at the hot corner for the Dodgers was seemingly made for the postseason. He’s the all-time hits leader in postseason history for L.A. (granted they play more games now than they did for the bulk of baseball history). The Rays basically have a three-man platoon option going with Joey Wendle, Michael Brosseau and Yandy Diaz. The trio combined to hit nearly .300 during the regular season, but this is Turner’s advantage.

Advantage: Dodgers

Shortstop:
The two young shortstops on these days are a bunch of fun to watch: Corey Seager for the Dodgers and Willy Adames for the Rays. Adames plays a real slick shortstop, but he hasn’t hit this postseason with a mere .132 postseason batting average. Seager on the other hand is the hottest hitter in the Dodgers lineup right now as he just had the best NLCS ever for a shortstop with five homers and 11 RBI. Gotta go with the hot bat.

Advantage: Dodgers

Outfield:
The Dodgers have Cody Bellinger and Mookie Betts in their outfield and lineup – that’s pretty much enough said. Thrown in former All-Star A.J. Pollock and it’s pretty impossible for any outfield in baseball to top this one. The Rays have two stellar defensive players in their outfield with Kevin Kiermaier in center and Manuel Margot in right (but the guys manning those positions in L.A. are both gold glovers). They also have Hunter Renfroe who has some pop in left. Bellinger and Betts didn’t hit well for much of the NLCS, but both showed signs of life in the pivotal game 7 win. This one isn’t even close.

Advantage: Dodgers

Designated Hitter:
Rookie Randy Arozarena has been the hottest hitter of any team this postseason with seven home runs, which is just one away from the all-time single postseason record of eight held by Barry Bonds, Carlos Beltran and Nelson Cruz (so watch for potential history in this Fall Classic). The Dodgers will likely be running multiple hitters out at DH during the series depending on how Roberts wants to work his lineup and defense.

Advantage: Rays

The Dodgers have a clear offensive advantage and the Rays have a slight pitching advantage. If the Rays staff can hold that Dodgers offense at bay, I think we’ll have a long, close series (which is what I’m predicting). If not, it could be over quickly.

You already know I’m sticking with my preseason prediction of the Dodgers winning the World Series, but I think the Rays will force them to win it all in a seventh game.

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