Rangers or Diamondbacks: Which Team Will Win the World Series?

by Julian Spivey

The 2023 World Series may not be filled with many household names or franchises with giant fan bases but it should be a pretty fun, closely matched series featuring two teams with similar recent histories. Both the American League champion Texas Rangers and National League champion Arizona Diamondbacks are merely two years removed from 100-plus loss seasons – marking the first time in World Series history in which such a thing has happened.

Both teams have had similar paths throughout the postseason, with each having a 9-3 record thus far and each having to come back and win two consecutive games on the road in the League Championship Series.

The Diamondbacks are looking for the second World Series title in franchise history having gone 1-0 in World Series competition beating the New York Yankees in 2001. The Rangers are seeking its first title in franchise history having previously lost two World Series to the San Francisco Giants in 2010 and St. Louis Cardinals in 2011.

Let’s take a look at these competitors position-by-position:

Catcher
OK, if you read my preview and prediction of the National League Championship Series between the D’Backs and the Philadelphia Phillies you’ll remember that I said I didn’t have much knowledge of D’Backs rookie catcher Gabriel Moreno and even though the fine folks at MLB.com in their version of this article took Moreno as an advantage over veteran All-Star J.T. Realmuto, I couldn’t make that same call myself. It turned out MLB.com was right and I was wrong. Moreno is hitting .279 with three home runs and nine RBI in 12 postseason games this October and has been one of Arizona’s most productive bats. The Rangers have a rookie backstop themselves who had an impressive first season and was even an A.L. All-Star but due to a wrist injury had a rougher second half. Heim has hit .250 for Texas this postseason with two home runs and six RBI, with both of those homers and most of those RBI coming in the ALCS against the Houston Astros. This is a tight decision but I’m leaning toward Moreno based on what I’ve seen this postseason thus far.

Edge: Diamondbacks

First Baseman
Both first basemen for the Diamondbacks and Rangers have kind of been scuffling this postseason despite their respective team's successes. Nathaniel Lowe is striking out 40 percent of the time at the plate this postseason for the Rangers. He’s hitting .224 for the postseason but did wake up a bit in the ALCS against Houston with seven hits in the seven-game series, including two of his postseason’s three home runs and four RBI. Christian Walker, who’s the most powerful batter in the D’Backs’ lineup hitting 33 homers and driving in 103 runs during the season, had a really hard time against the Philadelphia Phillies pitching staff in the NLCS with only two hits in 22 at-bats. Since neither first baseman has really done a whole lot in the postseason thus far I’ve got to go with Walker for his regular season numbers and the fact that he’s scarier in his lineup than Lowe is in his.

Edge: Diamondbacks

Second Baseman
Marcus Semien of the Texas Rangers is one of the three best second basemen in baseball. I’m pretty confident in that. I think Ketel Marte of the Arizona Diamondbacks might be one of the most underrated players in baseball period. I’d rather have Semien on my team at the beginning of a season but at this very moment, I’d rather have Marte as my second baseman. Semien hasn’t hit well this postseason with just a .192 average, zero homers and two RBI. Meanwhile, Marte has the longest postseason hitting streak to begin a career in MLB history going at 16 straight games. Marte was 12-for-31 (.387) in the NLCS and 8-for-19 (.421) in the Diamondbacks’ four wins of the series. His 19 hits in 12 games this postseason is pretty insane with five doubles, a triple, two homers and 7 RBI. If Semien gets hot that’ll prove big for Texas but right now Marte is the hottest hitter going for Arizona.

Edge: Diamondbacks

Third Baseman:
This one isn’t even close. The Rangers have rookie Josh Jung, coming off an All-Star season, at third base and he’s had a solid postseason in his first time around hitting .289 with three home runs and eight RBI. The Diamondbacks have easy outs at third base no matter who they threw out at the hot corner in veteran Evan Longoria, whom it’s hard to see how he’s still in the league watching him these days, and the likely even worse Emmanuel Rivera when he’s not playing third. Longoria and Rivera have combined to hit .143 this postseason.

Edge: Rangers

Shortstop: 
The Diamondbacks have a pretty solid shortstop in second-year man Geraldo Perdomo, who was an N.L. All-Star this season and had a very solid NLCS against the Phillies with eight hits but Corey Seager has been one of the hottest hitters all season long for the Rangers – as Joe Davis and John Smoltz liked to remind us A LOT in the ALCS he’d probably be the A.L. MVP this season if Shohei Ohtani wasn’t a baseball unicorn. Seager raked this season hitting .327 with 33 home runs, 96 RBI and led the A.L. with 42 doubles and that was incredible while missing more than a month’s worth of action due to injury. One of the great postseason players of this era, much of it with the Los Angeles Dodgers, he’s continued his hot hitting in October with 15 hits in 12 games, including five doubles, three homers and six RBI.

Edge: Rangers

Outfield:
Left field is a curious matchup in the World Series as the Rangers have been going with rookie Evan Carter, who made his MLB debut less than a month before the postseason began. Carter has been tremendous this postseason and the big stage doesn’t seem to be bothering him one bit. The 21-year-old has hit .308 with six doubles, a homer and five RBI this postseason while playing stellar defense that has included multiple highlight reel catches. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks left fielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr. was an N.L. All-Star this year but cooled off after a hot start. Gurriel hit .261 during the season with 24 home runs and 82 RBI. In the postseason, Gurriel has hit .250 with a couple of homers, six RBI and he stole a couple of bags in the NLCS against the Phillies.

The Rangers and Diamondbacks each have above-average defensive center fielders with below-average hitting in Leody Taveras and Alek Thomas respectively. Taveras certainly had the better season hitting .266 with 14 homers, 67 RBI and 14 stolen bases, while Thomas hit .230 with nine home runs and 39 RBI. Thomas’ average has been lower than his season number at .214 but he seems to have found some more pop in the postseason with four homers, including two against the Phillies in big moments in the NLCS. Taveras is hitting .244 this postseason with a home run, three RBI and four stolen bases.

The right field matchup features two stars and quite possibly the single player on each of these teams to most watch during the World Series in the hot-hitting Adolis Garcia for the Rangers and the certain to be the N.L. Rookie of the Year in Corbin Carroll. Garcia absolutely owned the Astros in the ALCS with five home runs and 15 RBI while hitting .357 (and that included one game in which he struck out four times). He’s .327 for the postseason overall with seven homers and 20 RBI and is having one of the greatest offensive postseasons in baseball history. Carroll had really hot NLWC and NLDS rounds against the Milwaukee Brewers and Los Angeles Dodgers but cooled off quite a bit in the NLCS against the Phillies, that is until the deciding game seven, in which he went 3-for-4 with two RBI and two runs scored. One of Carroll’s biggest threats is his speed on the basepaths, which includes four stolen bases in 12 games this postseason.

The outfielders for these two teams are fairly even, but right now Garcia seems like the most unstoppable hitter on the planet and he alone leads me to give Texas the outfield edge.

Edge: Rangers

Designated Hitter:
Mitch Garver didn’t even play in the American League Wild Card series against the Tampa Bay Rays nor game one of the American League Division Series against the Baltimore Orioles. Then Rangers skipper Bruce Bochy plugged him into the lineup for game two of that series and Garver hit a huge grand slam. He hasn’t left the D.H. spot since. Garver is hitting .294 this postseason with two homers and 11 RBI. Tommy Pham has been the most-used designated hitter for the D’Backs this postseason and has bit a measly .167 at the plate with two solo home runs.

Edge: Rangers 

Rotation:
The 1-2 guys in the rotation for the Texas Rangers this postseason have been nearly unbeatable. Nathan Eovaldi and Jordan Montgomery have combined to go 7-0 with 45 strikeouts in 51 innings pitched. The Rangers have truly needed these two aces to go deep into games with dominant control because the team has basically gone with an almost unheard-of three-man bullpen in the postseason. The third starter for the Rangers will be veteran and future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer, who missed more than the last month of the regular season due to injury and has only pitched 6.2 innings in his two postseason starts thus far. If they need a fourth starter in the series it’ll likely be Dane Dunning who’s pitched 4.2 innings in little use in the postseason thus far.

The Diamondbacks have two studs at the top of their rotation too in Zac Gallen, who will get the ball in game one of the series tonight, and Merrill Kelly, though they haven’t been quite as lights out as Eovaldi and Montgomery for Texas. Gallen is 2-2 this postseason with a rough 5.24 ERA in 22.1 innings pitched with 13 strikeouts. Kelly is 2-1 for Arizona with a much better 2.65 ERA in 17 innings with 19 strikeouts. The biggest surprise for the Diamondbacks during the postseason on the mound and the real reason the team escaped the big bats of the Phillies in the NLCS is Brandon Pfaadt, who had a nearly 6 ERA in the regular season but has a 2.70 ERA (despite getting knocked around by the Brewers in the Wild Card round) in 16.2 innings. The Diamondbacks are at a bit of a disadvantage in that game four will most likely be a bullpen game, though the team’s bullpen has been solid throughout the bullpen after being almost completely remade during the second half of the season, which includes the acquisition of closer Paul Sewald from the Seattle Mariners at the trade deadline.

Edge: Rangers

Bullpen:
As previously mentioned, the Rangers have basically gone with the three-man bullpen of setup guys Josh Sborz and Aroldis Chapman and closer (and longest-tenured Rangers player) Jose Leclerc throughout the postseason. Those three pitchers have combined for 24.4 innings of relief and are appearing nearly every game. Leclerc has racked up three saves this postseason but has allowed five runs. Chapman and Sborz have been a bit more solid in the run allowing department with only one apiece. The trio has combined for 21 strikeouts.

The Diamondbacks have more arms they can go to in their bullpen, which includes Ryan Thompson (10.2 innings pitched), Kevin Ginkel (nine innings) and Sewald (eight innings). Lefty Joe Mantiply, Miguel Castro and Andrew Saalfrank have also seen some time during the postseason. Thompson has allowed three runs to score this postseason, but Ginkel and Sewald have combined for almost two complete games between them and not a single runner has crossed the plate against them. Sewald has six saves this postseason with 11 strikeouts. Ginkel leads the D’Backs bullpen with 13 Ks, while Thompson has added eight.

With the Diamondbacks having a few more arms they believe they can turn to and Leclerc having been a little shaky at times for the Rangers I’ll give Arizona the bullpen edge.

Edge: Diamondbacks

Coaching:
I haven’t been doing a coaching edge during these postseason preview and predictions pieces I’ve been writing this month but I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention this was Rangers manager Bruce Bochy’s fifth World Series as a manager and third with a different franchise. He previously won three championships with the San Francisco Giants and no manager in baseball is as successful as he is at winning championships right now. Sorry, Torey Lovullo. That’s just the way it is.

Edge: Rangers

I think this has the capability of being a really good and really tight World Series. I think the teams are fairly evenly matched and we could be in store for a potential classic series. A lot has been made already that with two fan bases not accustomed to winning a lot lately and being smaller than large market franchises the television ratings on Fox could be the worst ever for a non-Covid (2020) year. But why are baseball fans concerning themselves with what the TV ratings are? This could be a great series. Enjoy it!

Prediction: Rangers in a full 7-game series.