Ranking NASCAR Playoff Drivers from Least Likely to Most Likely to Win Championship

by Julian Spivey

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16. Matt DiBenedetto
You have to win races to have any shot at winning the NASCAR Cup Series championship. Matt DiBenedetto is the only driver in the 16-driver field who has yet to win a race in his career. He was also the last driver into the field on points. Making his playoff debut will have to be his “win.”

15. Austin Dillon
Austin Dillon only seems to win race by either wrecking the leader on the final lap of the Daytona 500 or by a crew chief strategy call. He’s not a real championship threat.

14. Cole Custer
Cole Custer’s surprising win at Kentucky on an amazing final restart move got him into the playoffs in his rookie year, which is a terrific feat and locks him into being NASCAR’s Rookie of the Year for the Cup Series this year. I think he’ll be happy just to make the show.

13. Clint Bowyer
Clint Bowyer just doesn’t win enough races to be a real threat to win a title. I feel like the champion has to go out and win three of so of the 10 playoff races and Bowyer hasn’t even won that many races in the last eight seasons combined.

12. William Byron
William Byron finally broke into Victory Lane in the Cup Series at Daytona last weekend to clinch a spot into the playoffs. It’s honestly been a disappointing start to Byron’s career after the talent he showed in NASCAR’s lower levels. He might survive the first cut of the playoffs, but that’s about it.

11. Aric Almirola
As mentioned with Aric Almirola’s Stewart-Haas Racing teammate Clint Bowyer I believe you have to win a few playoff races to have a real shot at the title and Almirola only has two career wins period.

10. Kurt Busch
Kurt Busch had top-10 finishes in more than half of the 26 regular season events in NASCAR’s schedule so he’s definitely a guy who could point himself into the second or maybe even third round depending on what happens, but he just isn’t threatening for wins.

9. Alex Bowman
Alex Bowman has raced himself into the second best driver at Hendrick Motorsports over the last two seasons and won a race early this season at Fontana, but just doesn’t spend enough time up front to really threatened to win a title.

8. Ryan Blaney
Ryan Blaney is good for a win a year. He’s won exactly one race in each of the last four seasons. I’m going to need to see him win multiple races in a year before I can put him any further on this list.
 
These next seven drivers are the ones who I actually believe have a shot at winning the 2020 NASCAR Cup Series championship.
 
7. Kyle Busch
Kyle Busch’s inability to get into Victory Lane despite being the reigning series champion has arguably been the biggest story of the 2020 NASCAR season. But that’s not enough for me to count him out. Busch often seems like a late bloomer in the season and even though I certainly wouldn’t put my money on it I wouldn’t be surprised to see him and his team go on a bit of a run during the playoffs. I know there’s only 10 races left in the season, but I’ll still be shocked if he doesn’t win at least one race.

6. Chase Elliott
I could just as easily have put Chase Elliott in the fourth spot here as the sixth – that’s how close I think some of these drivers are. Elliott has won twice this season and has 10 top-five finishes. And when it comes to the Charlotte roval race in October I think he’s the closest thing to a lock you can possibly have in any of these 10 playoff races.

5. Brad Keselowski
Brad Keselowski’s three wins this season are the third most of any driver in the Cup Series, but they’ve been kind of quiet wins. He seems like he’s just kind of hanging around, but has had great success at many of the playoff tracks. Interestingly enough if Keselowski doesn’t win a race in the playoffs (which would all but ensure he doesn’t win the title) it’ll be his fourth consecutive season with exactly three wins.

4. Joey Logano
Joey Logano has two wins this season, which is tied with Chase Elliott for the fourth most in the sport, but of the drivers I have ranked from fourth to sixth on this list just seems like the one most likely to run off a quick win streak during the playoffs. He’s certainly more aggressive than Keselowski and Elliott, which could work to his advantage or disadvantage depending on the breaks.

3. Martin Truex Jr.
Martin Truex Jr. has only won one race this season (at Martinsville, which is the final cutoff race in the playoffs before the championship race at Phoenix), which is a noticeable drop off from the previous four seasons when he combined to win 23 races, but I just can’t count him and his Joe Gibbs Racing team out. I chalk Truex’s lack of wins this season to his crew chief Cole Pearn of the last few seasons abruptly retiring before this season, but when you look at his 11 top five finishes he’s clearly still toward the front of most of these races.

2. Denny Hamlin
1. Kevin Harvick
 
The 2020 NASCAR Cup Series season has been the Denny Hamlin and Kevin Harvick show. The two drivers have combined to win 13 races, which is exactly half of the 26 regular season races in the series. Harvick narrowly leads the way with seven wins to Hamlin’s six. Hamlin is well on his way to being the greatest driver in NASCAR history to never win a championship if he can’t capture one before the end of his career and this has been the best year yet for him, but I have to give a slight edge to Harvick. Harvick has been just a bit more consistent this season than Hamlin with two more top five finishes and four more top 10 finishes and I just believe Harvick to be the more reliable driver when it comes to putting himself in position to win races. I think both will continue to dominate in the playoffs like that have throughout the regular season and should make for a fun back-and-forth during these next 10 races, but if I had to put money on one of the two drivers I’d say Harvick wins championship number two come November.