Ranking NFL Playoff Teams From Most Likely-to-Least Likely Win Super Bowl LIV

by Julian Spivey

Note: Before getting into these rankings of NFL playoff teams I believe are most likely to least likely win Super Bowl LIV it’s important to note that I didn’t put a whole lot of research into these rankings, but merely this is me going with my gut.

1. Kansas City Chiefs
Even though repeat Super Bowl winners seems to be a thing of the past in today’s NFL I’ve never felt for one second this season that the reigning champion Kansas City Chiefs weren’t the team to beat, even when the Pittsburgh Steelers were undefeated for the majority of the season. The Chiefs finished the season with a league best 14-2 record, and the team’s second loss came in the final weekend of the season when it was resting players. It’s just one of those examples of I need to see them get beat before doubting them.

2. Green Bay Packers
The Green Bay Packers have been the class of the NFC for much of the season and that’s why they’ll represent the conference in the Super Bowl this year. It helps that they’ll have home-field advantage in the potentially freezing tundra of Green Bay throughout the NFC playoffs and they have one-less game to play, as there is now just one bye in the first round of the playoffs with the league adding two teams to the postseason. It also helps that star quarterback Aaron Rodgers, the Vegas favorite to win MVP, is the hottest player in the NFL at the moment and seemingly throwing touchdown passes left and right. 

3. Buffalo Bills
The Buffalo Bills haven’t won a playoff game in more than 25 years, the fourth longest playoff win drought in the NFL (if you count the Cleveland Browns not winning since 1994, even though the franchise was defunct for some of the time since then), but I believe they’re going to win at least one game this postseason and I’m predicting they’ll win two games and lose to the Chiefs in the AFC Championship game. I do think their Wild Card Round matchup against the 11-5 Indianapolis Colts (every one of the AFC playoff teams this year won at least 11 games) is incredibly tough and the Colts have veteran leadership in QB Phillip Rivers, but I do think Buffalo has the most talent all-around and should pull that out. 

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have a couple of things going for them. 1) the greatest postseason winner of all-time at quarterback in Tom Brady, who knows how to win big games and has a lot of fire power on his offense (even if coach Bruce Arians tried to get star receiver Mike Evans knocked out of the postseason in a game, he didn’t have to play him in) 2) They have the easiest matchup of any of the first round matchups getting to face the Washington Football Team because somebody had to win the NFC East. Honestly, I could’ve easily placed the Seattle Seahawks and New Orleans Saints here, as well, but I’ll give the Buccaneers, who haven’t won a playoff game since winning the Super Bowl 18 years ago, the edge to face the Packers in the NFC title game.

5. Seattle Seahawks
OK, so the Seattle Seahawks could easily be in the No. 4 slot on this list instead of the Buccaneers, but here’s my thinking of why I placed them fifth. I think the Seahawks have a more likely chance of losing in the first round than the Buccaneers do. The Buccs really have the good fortune of playing a losing Washington team, while the Seahawks are matching up against the Los Angeles Rams, who are division rivals they faced twice this year. I don’t expect the Seahawks to lose, but the chances are greater than Tampa Bay at least in the first weekend of the postseason.

6. Tennessee Titans
I think there’s good reason to believe the closest game of the first weekend of the NFL playoffs could be the Tennessee Titans vs. Baltimore Ravens. Vegas has the fifth seeded Ravens as the favorites, but I’m going to give my prediction to the fourth-seeded Titans, mostly because I really just think Derrick Henry is an unstoppable force right now. That might not be a good enough reason to have the Titans at sixth most likely to win the Super Bowl, but I do have some questions about the two teams behind them and the other six teams I’m predicting to lose this weekend.

7. New Orleans Saints
I seemingly have the New Orleans Saints lower on my rankings than many do and I understand that. The Saints went 12-4 this year and did so with star QB and team leader Drew Brees missing four games due to injury. But I have a few questions about this team: 1) Is Drew Brees healthy enough to get far into the playoffs? He’s thrown as many interceptions in his three games since coming back from injury as he did in his first 10 games prior to that injury. His passer ratings and completion percentages have also been lower since returning. 2) Saints receiver Michael Thomas, one of the best receivers in the league, is out for the playoffs with injury. 3) Star running back Alvin Kamara missed the final game of the season due to COVID-19 protocol and is reportedly not going to be able to practice this week as a result. For the Saints to do much in the playoffs they’d have to overcome a lot.

8. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Pittsburgh Steelers won the first 11 games of their season and were the last undefeated team remaining in the league and then they seemingly forgot how to win games, especially how to catch the football. Pittsburgh lost four of its last five games (and the win in Week 16 over the Indianapolis Colts was close) and were outscored by 29 points in their four loses, two of which games to bad Cincinnati Bengals and Washington (I know they made the playoffs, but they’re still a bad team!). I have them eighth because I think they’re going to beat the Cleveland Browns this weekend (yes, they lost to them last week, but they rested Ben Roethlisberger and others and just barely lost), but I don’t see them going much further than that.

9. Baltimore Ravens
I also have the Baltimore Ravens a bit lower on my rankings than I’ve seen on other sports predictions, but it’s because I’m predicting them to lose this upcoming weekend in the Wild Card Round to the Tennessee Titans. I do believe they are the best team of the six I’m predicting to lose this weekend, but even if they get past the Titans, they probably don’t go further than the next round.

10. Cleveland Browns
The way the Pittsburgh Steelers have finished out the season I wouldn’t be shocked if the Cleveland Browns beat them this weekend, but I’m not predicting it. I feel bad the fans of the Browns because this is the team’s first playoff appearance since 2002 and the franchise hasn’t won a playoff game since 1994 before the team moved to Baltimore, became the Ravens and then later came back into the league and they have to play this weekend without their coach Kevin Stefanski due to COVID-19. If any franchise deserves to win a playoff game after so much pain it’s the Cleveland Browns, I just don’t believe they’re going to.

11. Indianapolis Colts
Even though I have the Buffalo Bills making the AFC Championship Game in a few weeks it wouldn’t be too surprising for me if they fell this weekend to the Indianapolis Colts who have veteran QB Phillip Rivers, who probably won’t be the least bit frazzled about playing in the postseason. Honestly, I don’t know a whole lot about this Colts team and predict they lose to Buffalo and that’s why they’re this low.

12. Los Angeles Rams
The Los Angeles Rams have already played the Seattle Seahawks twice this season as inter-division rivals and split the season series with them. It wouldn’t shock me to see the Rams goes to Seattle and upset the Seahawks. It should be one of the closest games, in fact, of Wild Card weekend. I’m just predicting a Seattle win and if the Rams do make it to next week don’t think they go any further.

13. Chicago Bears
I feel a bit bad for the 10-6 Miami Dolphins having to sit at home this weekend watching the playoffs when the 8-8 Chicago Bears and 7-9 Washington Football Team are playing, but that’s how conferences and divisions work. The Bears probably aren’t going to beat the New Orleans Saints this weekend but remember I did have all those questions about how far the Saints could go this postseason.

14. Washington Football Team
The Washington Football Team is not deserving of the NFL Playoffs. No losing team ever is deserving of making any playoffs in any sport, but when you have divisions (and I don’t really dislike divisions) somebody has to win it, even if all four teams are bad. Washington was that team this year. They are not going to beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the Wild Card Round, even if they do have home-field advantage (without the fans albeit) due to winning that division.