by Julian Spivey
The NASCAR Cup Series champion will be crowned at Phoenix Raceway on Sunday, Nov. 7 and, unlike many seasons, the Championship 4 drivers truly seem like the right four drivers from the 2021 Cup season as a whole: Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin, Martin Truex Jr. and Chase Elliott. Larson, Hamlin, Truex Jr. and Elliott have been arguably the four best and most consistent drivers of the season, even if there are drivers like Alex Bowman and Ryan Blaney with more race wins than Hamlin and Elliott. It’s incredibly hard to predict a champion for a NASCAR series because the criteria for winning the title once the Championship 4 get to the final race of the year, which starting last season has been Phoenix, is simply finishing ahead of the other three drivers. It’s not the fairest way to determine a champion, in my opinion, but it’s the system NASCAR has chosen and seems hell-bent on keeping for maximum entertainment value at the end of the season. If we were giving the championship trophy based on season wins Kyle Larson would have run away with the 2021 title. If it were the old points-only system that NASCAR ran from its creation through the 2003 season I think it might be a fight between Larson and Denny Hamlin for the title this weekend, but I couldn’t find those numbers anywhere. Because it’s one race and you must finish higher than the other three championship drivers anything can affect the outcome – a bad pit stop, being caught up in another driver’s wreck, etc. So, the NASCAR championship is more of a crapshoot than I’d prefer and that’s why it’s so hard to predict. But if every thing goes as planned here’s my predictions and why … Season: Kyle Larson is the guy to beat when basing the four drivers on their 2021 performance. Larson has won a career-high nine races this season in his first with Hendrick Motorsports. In fact, Larson won three more races this season than he had in his six-plus season career prior when he competed for Chip Ganassi Racing. Larson also has the most top-five and top-10 finishes in the sport this season with 19 and 25 respectively, which is one more in each of those categories than Denny Hamlin. When it comes to the important average finish statistical category Hamlin had the better season averaging an 8.6 place finish to Larson’s 9.3 place finish. Chase Elliott, who won two races this season (both at road courses) has 14 top-fives, 20 top-10s and an average finish of 11.5. Truex Jr. was tied for the second most wins during the 2021 season with four, had 12 top-fives and 19 top-10s with an average finish of 12.3. So, Truex Jr. found Victory Lane more often than Hamlin and Elliott but didn’t run upfront as consistently. Larson had more wins this season nine than the other three championship drivers combined (eight). Advantage: Kyle Larson Phoenix Raceway: Here’s where things get a little more interesting for the championship race this weekend. It’s clear Kyle Larson had the best 2021 season of the Championship 4. There’s no debate. But Larson might be the worst of these four drivers at Phoenix Raceway. That could come into play on Sunday or maybe it won’t at all considering much of Larson’s career at Phoenix came with Chip Ganassi Racing, which is basically a second-tier team to the rides his competitors in this championship fight have had throughout their careers. None of these four drivers have dominated the track in the past, but honestly due to a reconfiguration recently it doesn’t run like it did for the majority of Hamlin and Truex’s careers. Three of these drivers have won at Phoenix before and all three have done so in the last three seasons since that reconfiguration. Hamlin has two wins at Phoenix (2012 and 2019) with the 2012 win coming before the reconfiguration. Elliott won at the track in the championship race last year to clinch his first career championship. Truex Jr. won the race at Phoenix earlier this season in March leading 64 of 312 laps. So, the championship favorite Larson is the only driver not to reach Victory Lane at the track. Hamlin finished third in March leading 33 laps. Elliott finished fifth in March and Larson finished seventh and led one lap. I’m going to look at the last six races at Phoenix Raceway the rest of the way because that’s how many events the track has held since its reconfiguration in 2018. Hamlin has the most top five finishes in those six races with four. Larson has the most top-10 finishes in those six races with five, but because he didn’t compete in last year’s title race he’s not finished outside of the top-10 since the reconfiguration. Truex has two top-fives and four top-10s in those six races and Elliott has two top-fives and three top-10s. It’s hard to know who has the advantage here because Larson has been in the top-10 the most, but he’s also the only driver of the four to not win at this track. Because of the four top-fives in the six races and a previous win on the reconfiguration I’m giving the advantage here to … Advantage: Denny Hamlin So, who’s going to win the championship? Based on the dominance on the track this year it could be considered somewhat of a travesty if Kyle Larson isn’t the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series champion. However, I can’t ignore the fact that of all these drivers it’s Denny Hamlin who’s been at this the longest without a title to his legend. With 46 Cup wins he’s second to only Junior Johnson (50) in NASCAR history with most wins without a championship and Johnson almost never, if ever, competed in a full-time season as a driver. So, one could make the argument that Hamlin is probably the greatest driver in the history of the sport without a championship. He’s a future Hall of Famer, no doubt, but his career is also incomplete without a title, and I think he’s pissed right now. I think he’s going to be the most aggressive driver at Phoenix going for that championship. That may work for him, or it may work against him, but I have a gut feeling that Hamlin just wants this championship a bit more than the other three. I could be wrong about this. I’ve picked Hamlin to win the title going into the final race of the season before and been wrong. But my official prediction to win the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series championship is … 2021 NASCAR Champion: Denny Hamlin
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