World Series: Houston Astros vs. Atlanta Braves - Which Team Has the Edge?

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by Julian Spivey
The 2021 World Series is going to be a matchup between the veteran Houston Astros, making its third World Series appearance in the last five seasons, and the surprising Atlanta Braves who didn’t have a record above .500 this season until almost mid-August.
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The Astros won seven more games during the regular season than the Braves, but I believe the World Series matchup could be closer than some people think.

Let’s break it down position-by-position and then I’ll make my prediction afterward.

Catcher:
Catcher is the weakest position offensively for both the Astros and the Braves, but if I had to pick one catcher to get an important at-bat during the series it would be Travis d’Arnaud, who was a Silver Slugger in the shortened 2020 season before being hurt and missing a lot of 2021. Defensively both are strong when it comes to calling games and stopping balls from getting to the backstop, but where Martin Maldonado shines for the Astros is at cutting down base stealers, which is something d’Arnaud struggled with during the NLCS against the Los Angeles Dodgers. I’ll give the Astros the slim edge based on this ability.

Edge: Astros

First Base:
If you’re a National League fan mostly it may be surprising just how close this matchup is between 2020 National League M.V.P. Freddie Freeman for the Braves and Yuli Gurriel for the Astros, after all Gurriel is just the ‘Stros fourth most famous infielder. Gurriel won the batting title in the American League this season hitting .319. He’s hit .333 in the postseason thus far and driven in eight runs. Freeman will give the Braves the slight edge, however, because he’s the team leader and is more likely to have a bigger impact in the lineup during the series. The Astros could win the title with Gurriel playing poorly. The Braves likely can’t if Freeman doesn’t hit. Freeman is hitting .294, with three homers, six RBI and 21 total bases in 10 games this postseason, which is kind of amazing given how historically bad his first two games of the NLCS were when he struck out seven times in eight ABs.

Edge: Braves

Second Base:
This positional breakdown is awfully close too, just like the two previous ones.  Jose Altuve for the Astros and Ozzie Albies for the Braves may be the best second basemen in their prospective leagues, but both may be playing a bit under their capabilities this postseason with Altuve hitting .200 and Albies hitting .262. Despite Albies hitting better the ‘Stros are getting more run production out of Altuve with a team leading 15 runs scored this postseason and three homers and seven RBI – a lot of that has to do with Altuve drawing more walks than Albies. Both two-baggers play excellent defense. I wouldn’t be shocked if Albies has a better series than Altuve, but I’m going to give Altuve the edge here because this big stage is old hat for him and brand new for Albies.

Edge: Astros

Third Base:
I’ve seen some people giving the Astros the edge here with multiple-time All-Star Alex Bregman, but I, once again, believe it’s awfully close. Braves third baseman Austin Riley had a much better season than Bregman did in 2021 hitting 41 points higher and blasting 33 homers and driving in 107 runs, with Bregman missing a bunch of time with injury. Their numbers during the postseason have been equal. This is a position that I would probably say is a push, but that’s kind of a cop out, so I’ll give the edge to Riley and the Braves based on his season.

Edge: Braves

Left Field:
Eddie Rosario had one of the all-time greatest LCS performances in baseball history against the Dodgers and is hitting .474 for the postseason with three homers, 11 RBI and 30 total bases. It’s hard to compare his season to that of Astros left fielder Michael Brantley as Rosario missed the bulk of the season due to injury. Brantley was second in the A.L. in batting average hitting .311, second only to his teammate Yuli Gurriel. I’m going to ride the extremely hot hand of Rosario here and give the Braves the edge, but there’s a huge caveat here. When the Astros visit the Braves at Truist Park in Atlanta for games three, four and a potential fifth game it’ll likely be Yordan Alvarez in left field instead of Brantley and Alvarez is the scariest hitter in that Astros lineup to me right now. Alvarez will be designated hitter when the games are at Minute Maid Park in Houston.
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Edge: Braves

Center Field:
The Braves have the edge here simply because they have one guy manning the position the entire series in Adam Duvall, who led the N.L. in RBI this season with 113 and had a career high 38 home runs. While Duvall’s power numbers are great, he doesn’t hit for much average batting .228 during the season and has hit .229 this postseason. However, during the postseason his power numbers aren’t as high compared to his teammates four RBI (fifth on the team) and one homer. The Astros have a platoon going with rookie Chas McCormick, who’s already one of the better defenders in center in baseball, and speedster Jose Siri. Their spot in the lineup is probably the only time Braves pitching will get to breathe, along with Martin Maldonado.

Edge: Braves

Right Field:
Joc Pederson was one of the hottest hitters in the postseason during the NLDS against the Milwaukee Brewers and the first two games of the NLCS against the Dodgers hitting three homers for the Braves. He started the postseason as Atlanta’s no. 1 pinch hit option off the bench but took over right field when Jorge Soler tested positive for Covid-19. Pederson’s production has slowed down since the first two games of the NLCS, almost as if his good juju was transferred to Eddie Rosario, who’s been lights out ever since. For the Astros, Kyle Tucker has been one of the leading offensive producers this postseason with four homers and 15 RBI, both of which lead the team, and is hitting .275. He also has a team leading three stolen bases in the postseason.

Edge: Astros

Designated Hitter:
Most of the time the American League team is going to have the edge at DH simple because they’re used to having one the entire season. The Astros will get to utilize Yordan Alvarez at DH for a possible four games this series, though he’ll no doubt find his way into the batting order in the games at the Braves’ Truist Park. Just by physical stature alone he’s the scariest guy in the ‘Stros lineup and has hit an incredible .441 this postseason with two homers, nine RBI and a team leading 27 total bases. The Braves do have Jorge Soler, recovered from Covid-19 to slot in at DH – a position he’s more than comfortable with as he did so for multiple seasons with the Kansas City Royals. He’s no doubt better suited for DH than many options we’ve seen from National League teams in World Series past. He’s only had a couple of pinch hit at-bats since rejoining the Braves, so it’s to be seen if he’s warmed back up yet.

Edge: Astros

Starting Pitching:
I’ve seen a lot already about how the Atlanta Braves have a better rotation than the Houston Astros going into the World Series, especially since Lance McCullers Jr. – potentially the ‘Stros best pitcher is unavailable with injury. The Astros pitching staff was rough in the first half of the ALCS against the Boston Red Sox with Framber Valdez, Luis Garcia, Jose Uriquidy and Zack Greinke all failing to complete even three innings in the first four games. But then in game five of the series Valdez had the best start of any pitcher this postseason going eight innings and allowing only one run. Then in the game 6 clincher for Houston, Garcia pitched a dominant 5.2 innings of shutout ball. So, we’ll see which type of performances Houston can get in the World Series against the Braves offense. The Braves essentially have a three-man rotation for the postseason, as has shown to be the case for most teams, but their three-headed rotation of Charlie Morton, Max Fried and Ian Anderson has combined for a good 3.27 ERA thus far. I do believe the Braves have the edge over the Astros in this all important category, especially with Morton, who’s made the World Series in three of the last five years with three different teams (Astros in 2017, Rays in 2020 and Braves now). My only question is how much can the Braves starters, two of which are young and have never been on a stage this big, stop potentially the scariest lineup in the entire sport?

Edge: Braves

Bullpen:
Both the bullpens of the Atlanta Braves and Houston Astros have been relied upon heavily this postseason and are a big part as to why each team has made it this far. Each bullpen has lowered its season ERA in the postseason – Astros have gone from 4.06 to 3.42 and Braves from 3.97 to 3.56, which is impressive against the best teams in their respective leagues. This is another close competition. The Braves have probably the hottest reliever in the postseason now in setup man Tyler Matzek, who absolutely owned the Dodgers, especially in game 6 of the NLCS. The Astros probably have the best reliever overall in each bullpen in their closer Ryan Pressly, who had a 2.25 ERA this season with 26 saves. The Braves closer Will Smith’s numbers don’t look all that bad on paper but ask any Braves fan who’s followed along all season if they’re comfortable seeing him enter the game in a save situation, even if he has stepped up his performance a bit this postseason. The edge here is likely minute, but I’m going with …

Edge: Astros

World Series Prediction: Astros over Braves in 6 games

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