World Series Preview: Do Astros or Nationals Have Advantage?

by Julian Spivey
The World Series, which begins tonight on Fox at 7 p.m., between the American League champion Houston Astros and the National League champion Washington Nationals has the feeling of one that could be an absolute epic. Just looking at the pitching matchups for the series of Max Scherzer and Gerrit Cole in game one, Stephen Strasburg and Justin Verlander in game two and Zack Greinke versus probably Patrick Corbin in game three should have every baseball fan giddy.
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Here’s a breakdown of the two teams and where I believe each has the advantage over the other:

Rotation:
When the Astros acquired Zack Greinke from the Arizona Diamondbacks right at the trade deadline to join the one-two punch of Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander I declared the Astros the World Series champions right then. Now as we’re hours from the first pitch of the World Series I’m not even sure the Astros have the best rotation in the series. Cole has been unbeatable since the early part of the season and has continued as such in the playoffs going 3-0 with an ERA of 0.40. Verlander has been good, but not quite as good as he was in the regular season and actually has a losing record at 1-2. Greinke has been downright bad going 0-2 with an ERA over 6.00. Patrick Corbin hasn’t been good for the Nats during the postseason with an ERA of 7.43 and a 1-2 record, but the two aces at the top of the Nats rotation in Max Scherzer (2-0, 1.80 ERA) and Stephen Strasburg (3-0, 1.64 ERA) have been almost unhittable. And, speaking of unhittable if the Nats would rather go with veteran Anibal Sanchez in game three instead of Corbin he has a 0.71 ERA in two starts this postseason with hitter batting just .116 against him. This could likely be a push when it comes to one advantage over the other, and I almost can’t believe I’m saying this, but based on these playoffs thus far …

Advantage: Nationals

Bullpen:
Much has been made about how poor the Nationals bullpen was this season, but things calmed down quite a bit when the acquisition of Daniel Hudson was made from the Toronto Blue Jays before the trade deadline. Hudson leads all closers in the postseason with four saves and hasn’t allowed a run in six appearances. Sean Doolittle, the Nats previous closer before Hudson, has also been strong allowing two runs in 7.1 innings and recording a save during a game in which Hudson was away from the team for the birth of a child. The rest of the Nats bullpen is sketchy, but the starting pitching has mostly been getting it all the way to Doolittle and Hudson at the end. Astros closer Roberto Osuna gave up a huge home run to New York Yankees infielder D.J. LeMahieu to blow a save in the ninth inning of game six of the ALCS but has mostly been strong in seven playoff appearances this season. Set-up man Will Harris has a 0.00 ERA in seven appearances. Joe Smith and Josh James have also been strong in six appearances each for the Astros. I’m going to give this category to Houston, but if the Nats starters go six or seven innings as expected the Astros hitters should be in trouble.

Advantage: Astros

Catcher:
Both the Astros and Nationals use platoons at catcher and both squads have wily vets doing so. The Astros have Robinson Chirinos and Martin Maldonado. Chirinos has struggled at the plate in the seven games he’s started this postseason, but Maldonado has hit .308 in his four games. The Nationals use Kurt Suzuki and Yan Gomes. In Suzuki’s seven starts he’s only had one hit in 20 at-bats. In Gomes three starts he’s matched Maldonado’s .308 average.

Advantage: Push

First Base:
One of the great stories of the Nationals making their first World Series trip in franchise history is that Ryan Zimmerman has been with the franchise the entire way. He was the team’s very first draft pick in 2005 when the team moved to Washington from Montreal and has been a leader all the way. Zimmerman has had a good postseason at the dish hitting .290 with 5 RBI. Astros first bagger Yuli Gurriel has struggled a bit at the plate this postseason with a .209 average, but he has driven in a team high 8 RBI. I think Zimmerman is going to have a big World Series after waiting so long to arrive and if the Nats win the title look for him to retire on top.

Advantage: Nationals

Second Base:
The Houston Astros have the best second baseman in all of baseball over the last decade in Jose Altuve and the perennial All Star is coming off the biggest moment of his career with his walk-off homer against the Yankees in game six of the ALCS on Saturday night to send the Astros to the World Series. Altuve leads all players this postseason with 5 homers and leads his team hitting .349. The Nats have been going with veteran Howie Kendrick at second for the majority of the playoffs, despite the fact he was mostly a reserve during the season. He’s rewarded them with a strong performance of .289 average, a team leading 9 RBI and one helluva grand slam against the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NLDS.

Advantage: Astros

Third Base:
The Astros and Nationals each had the best third baseman in their respective leagues this season with Alex Bregman for Houston and Anthony Rendon for Washington. Each will almost certainly finish in the top three voting for their respective league’s MVP battle. Rendon has had the better postseason of the two leading the Nats with a .375 average to go along with a homer, 4 doubles and 7 RBI. Bregman has hit more than 100 points lower than Rendon this postseason at .257 and has only driven in four runs so far, but because both players are at the best of their position, I don’t feel I can give either team the advantage here.

Advantage: Push

Shortstop:
Trea Turner is a spark plug for the Nationals and he’s having a pretty good postseason hitting .286 with 3 doubles, a homer and 3 RBI. Astros shortstop Carlos Correa has the luxury of having been on the biggest stage before, which might help this coming week, but he’s struggled at the plate so far this postseason with only a .171 average. If I were just basing this on the regular season, I might give Correa the advantage or call it a push, but as of now my advantage is going to Washington.

Advantage: Nationals

Outfield:
I think there’s a great case to be made that the Astros have the best outfield in baseball. George Springer was the MVP the last time the Astros made the World Series two years ago, Michael Brantley has been a great addition to the Astros this season and Josh Reddick is a great veteran presence. Springer and Reddick have both been scuffling at the plate this postseason and things won’t get any easier against the Nats stellar rotation. Brantley has been solid with a .262 average. This outfield is definitely better than it has been performing in October. The Nats best outfielder in the postseason has been the platoon they’ve had going in center fielder with Michael Taylor (.300 in five starts) and Victor Robles (.313 in five starts). The Nats best outfielder Juan Soto has hit .237 this postseason with 2 homers and 7 RBI. Adam Eaton, the vet of the outfield, has hit only .194. Neither outfield has exploded offensively this postseason, but the Astros have been around the block more.

Advantage: Astros
 
Prediction: Astros in 7
When it comes to the breakdown above things are pretty even. I’m going to give the Astros the advantage because they’ve been the better all around team all season, whereas the Nationals scuffled at the start of the season and rode hot pitching through the first two rounds of the playoffs. Either team winning this series wouldn’t be a surprise, but I’m going with the team that’s had more playoff experience.