CMA Awards: Who Will Win, Who Should Win

by Julian Spivey

The 2012 CMA Awards will air tonight on ABC (Conway Corp. Channel 7 locally) at 7 p.m. Breakout country music star Eric Church leads all nominees with seven nominations. Here is my yearly who should win and who will win CMA Awards predictions …
 
Entertainer of the Year:
Nominees: Jason Aldean, Kenny Chesney, Brad Paisley, Blake Shelton & Taylor Swift
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Who Should Win: Kenny Chesney
I know full well that if you were to rank the Entertainer of the Year nominees from the most likely to win this year to the least likely to win that Kenny Chesney would come in dead last, but I believe that out of all of these nominees Chesney has put out the best work this year and his live performances are always a blast. If I had a vote it would go to Chesney.

Who Will Win: Jason Aldean
If my memory serves me right the CMA Awards are one of the last remaining award shows to not feature fan voting for the Entertainer of the Year award (and rightfully so), which leads me to believe that the current country superstar Jason Aldean will take home this award, even though I believe he doing a lot more bad for real country music than he is good. However, if my memory is wrong and this is a fan voted award than you can bet your entire bank account that Taylor Swift will win.

Male Vocalist of the Year:
Nominees: Jason Aldean, Luke Bryan, Eric Church, Blake Shelton & Keith Urban

Who Should Win: Eric Church

Last year’s winner Blake Shelton has the best voice of any of these nominees, which is fitting since he’s a coach on NBC’s “The Voice”, but that doesn’t mean he should repeat as winner. Eric Church put out the best country music of any artist in the genre this year and should easily win this award, however, he almost certainly will not win in his first ever nomination.

Who Will Win: Jason Aldean
Unfortunately I believe tonight will be a huge night for Jason Aldean. Aldean doesn’t have a particularly good voice and he records mostly stereotypical country tripe, but he’s extremely popular right now and many people seem to feel like his due, even though he really hasn’t rightfully earned anything.

Female Vocalist of the Year:
Nominees: Kelly Clarkson, Miranda Lambert, Martina McBride, Taylor Swift, Carrie Underwood

Who Should Win: Miranda Lambert
Miranda Lambert has taken this award home the last two years and she really should continue to win it well into the future, because she’s the only popular female artist right now in the country music genre who is honestly writing, singing and releasing honest to goodness country music. You know the genre is hurting for real female country singers when a pop singer like Kelly Clarkson somehow and ridiculously infiltrates this category.

Who Will Win: Taylor Swift
This category is maybe the hardest one to predict this year with Lambert, Carrie Underwood and Taylor Swift all being potential winners and none of the three would come as any surprise. Lambert might have the advantage after winning the last two years, but I have a feeling the CMAs this year are going to be kind to the pop princess that is Taylor Swift.

Vocal Group of the Year:
Nominees: Eli Young Band, Lady Antebellum, Little Big Town, The Band Perry & Zac Brown Band

Who Should Win: Eli Young Band
I actually find it pretty hard to get interested or excited about this category because I don’t think any of these artists really released anything all that interesting or exciting all year. Hell for my money the real country music vocal group of the year should be little known Texas country group Turnpike Troubadours, but this is reality and that’ll never happen. I’ll give my vote to the Eli Young Band simply because I could kind of get into “Even If it Breaks Your Heart.”

Who Will Win: Eli Young Band
This category is extremely hard to predict as well. I could literally see any one of these five nominees taking home this honor. I’m going to give the edge to Eli Young Band simply because their song “Crazy Girl” was the most played country song of the previous year and I think previous dominators of this category Lady Antebellum have cooled down somewhat over the last year.

Vocal Duo of the Year:
Nominees: Big & Rich, Love & Theft, Sugarland, The Civil Wars & Thompson Square

Who Should Win: The Civil Wars
Once again and if ranked the nominees in this category from most likely to win to least likely to win I guarantee The Civil Wars would come out as the least likely to win. I would put $1 million on the duo not winning this award. Now, I honestly haven’t given as many listens to The Civil Wars as I probably should have, but I do dig their Americana true country sound.

Who Will Win: Thompson Square
I bet the CMA Awards wish they didn’t even have to televise this category this year because it’s frankly pretty lackluster. Normally Sugarland would dominate this category, but I think they’re mostly nominated this year just to fill a spot. I honestly can’t even name a single song they’ve released in the past year. Because I don’t think Sugarland has done enough to win this award (thankfully) I’d give the edge to Thompson Square.

Song of the Year:
Nominees: “Even If It Breaks Your Heart” by Eli Young Band, “God Gave Me You” by Blake Shelton, “Home” by Dierks Bentley, “Over You” by Miranda Lambert & “Springsteen” by Eric Church

Who Should Win: “Springsteen” by Eric Church
Much like Eric Church himself, “Springsteen” has been a breath of fresh air this year in country music. It’s just what the genre’s needed right in the middle of a horrible lackluster year. “Springsteen” is lyrical genius on the part of Church and his co-writers Ryan Tyndell and Jeff Hyde and has no doubt been the best country song of the year. Can you tell I love this song?

Who Will Win: “Home” by Dierks Bentley
The Song of the Year category is actually maybe the one category that the CMA Awards generally seems to actually get right most of the time. However, I have a bad feeling about this year. I believe that Dierks Bentley’s schmaltzy and overly-patriotic “Home” is a tune that the CMA Awards just can’t turn down. Bentley is a great singer and a talented songwriter, but lately just hasn’t been at the top of his game. “Home” is not even close to being one of Bentley’s worst songs of late like “5-1-50”, but it’s just bland and boring. Not really song of the year material, but we’ll see.

Album of the Year:
Nominees: “Chief” by Eric Church, “Four the Record” by Miranda Lambert, “Home” by Dierks Bentley, “Own the Night” by Lady Antebellum & “Tailgates & Tanlines” by Luke Bryan

Who Should Win: “Chief” by Eric Church
Eric Church’s “Chief” was the closest thing country music had this year to a perfect album and is so far ahead of the rest of the competition that this shouldn’t even be a contest. “Chief” is hands down the winner in my book, songs like the nominated “Springsteen”, “It’s Over When It’s Over”, “Hungover & Hard Up” and “Creepin’” are all perfect.

Who Will Win: “Four the Record” by Miranda Lambert
I would imagine that this year’s category pretty much just comes down to the albums of “Chief” by Eric Church and “Four the Record” by Miranda Lambert, but then again I have been surprised before. Miranda Lambert has proven to be a winner with the CMA Awards by winning multiple female vocalist of the year awards, song of the year for “The House That Built Me” and this very category in 2010 for “Revolution”. Despite Church’s “Chief” being a better album I’d give the edge to “Four the Record”.
 
Single of the Year:
Nominees: “Dirt Road Anthem” by Jason Aldean, “God Gave Me You” by Blake Shelton, “Home” by Dierks Bentley, “Pontoon” by Little Big Town & “Springsteen” by Eric Church 

Who Should Win: “Springsteen” by Eric Church

Who Will Win: “Dirt Road Anthem” by Jason Aldean

Music Video of the Year:
Nominees: “Come Over” by Kenny Chesney, “Over You” by Miranda Lambert, “Pontoon” by Little Big Town, “Red Solo Cup” by Toby Keith & “Springsteen” by Eric Church

Who Should Win: “Springsteen” by Eric Church

Who Will Win: “Red Solo Cup” by Toby Keith

Musical Event of the Year:
Nominees: “Dixie Highway” by Alan Jackson & Zac Brown, “Feel Like a Rock Star” by Kenny Chesney & Tim McGraw, “Roll Me Up & Smoke Me When I Die” by Willie Nelson, Jamey Johnson, Snoop Dogg & Kris Kristofferson, “Safe & Sound” by Taylor Swift & The Civil Wars & “Stuck on You” by Lionel Richie & Darius Rucker

Who Should Win:  “Roll Me Up & Smoke Me When I Die” by Willie Nelson, Jamey Johnson, Snoop Dogg & Kris Kristofferson

Who Will Win: “Feel Like a Rock Star” by Kenny Chesney & Tim McGraw